Prospects for the 1997 cereal crops remain unchanged from the last report. Cereal crop production will be well below potential but somewhat up from the previous year. Output of wheat is forecast at about 340 000 to 350 000 tons compare to just 316 000 tons in 1996. Of this amount however, only a small portion is expected to enter the domestic market with the bulk remaining in the hands of the producers for their own consumption, as animal feed, or for seed for the next crop. As a result, the country will continue to rely heavily on wheat imports in the current 1997/98 marketing year to meet its needs for its staple bread production, especially in urban areas and for upland rural populations. After difficulties meeting wheat requirements in the previous year, fulfilling wheat import needs will remain a critical issue in 1997/98. While the level of wheat and wheat flour imports through the port of Durres is reported to have increased somewhat in June, imports remained well below monthly requirements and the major flour mills are not operating. Furthermore, because of the small size of imported wheat shipments, handling costs are relatively high and this is being reflected in high consumer prices.
Early indications for the winter wheat crop to be sown this autumn point to a further recovery in planted area if farmers can realize their intentions. However, improving output will largely depend on ensuring increased availability of high quality seeds at planting time.