A recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission has estimated the 1997 total cereal production at 3.66 million tons, comprising 2.71 million tons of wheat, 0.4 million tons of rice, 0.3 million tons of maize and 0.25 million tons of barley. This harvest is some 18 percent higher than the previous year’s and the largest crop since 1978, due to above average and well distributed rains in most areas. The 1997 cereal crops suffered relatively little pest damage and the harvest is being carried out in good weather conditions. However, there is some uncertainty about the likely amount of harvest in the eight northern provinces because of the civil strife which has isolated this area. Although large areas are reported to be planted, especially with rainfed wheat, and the growing conditions were favourable, the actual harvest could be delayed in some parts because of military activities and labour scarcity resulting from migration. These northern provinces together comprise 40 percent of Afghanistan’s irrigated cereal area and 53 percent of its rainfed area. Normally, it is a surplus region, but the movement of grain towards the populated centre is currently impeded by the front-line north of Kabul. This may lead to increased carryover stocks in the north and exports into the CIS, as well as shortages in the Kabul area, which, with its estimated population of 1.2 million, is almost completely dependent on imports from Pakistan. The eight northern provinces are forecast to produce 1.3 million tons of cereals from the current harvest, but if the intensity of military activities increases or the conflict widens over the next few months, harvesting could be interrupted and a reduction from this forecast is possible.
Despite the good 1997 harvest, import requirements are expected to be considerable. Given the rise in population, due partly to returnees, cereal imports in the 1997/98 marketing year are forecast at 710 000 tons, similar to last year. This implies some small build-up of wheat stocks, mainly in the north, and some exports, roughly estimated at 150 000 tons, from the northern provinces to the CIS countries. Most of the import requirements are expected to be met by commercial supplies of mainly wheat flour from Pakistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran. The imported supplies are mostly aimed at meeting urban demand.
The Mission has estimated the 1997/98 emergency food aid requirements at 170 000 tons, including 150 000 tons of cereals, similar to 1996/97. The WFP is the largest supplier providing 140 000 tons of food aid in 1997, followed by ICRC, with 25 000 tons, and a number of NGOs. Emergency food aid is required to meet the needs of the estimated 1.75 million vulnerable people during the 1997/98 marketing year.
In mid July, floods killed some 80 people and left over 100 000 homeless in 19 of the country's 64 administrative districts. Ten districts in the southeast, including Chittagong, Cox's Bazar and the Chittagong Hill Tracts were the worst hit. An assessment of crop losses is being made. Although the full extent of damage will only be ascertained when floodwaters recede, unconfirmed reports estimate that standing crops on about 124 000 hectares were damaged. In addition to crops, several thousand hectares on shrimp and fish farms were also destroyed.
Harvesting of the rainfed 'Aus' rice crop, which normally accounts for some 10 percent of production, is about to commence. The target for the crop is 1.8 million tons. Output of the recently harvested “Boro” crop is estimated at 7.33 million tons, slightly below target and similar to the previous year. “Boro” paddy normally accounts for almost 40 percent of aggregate rice production. Aggregate cereal production for 1996/97 is estimated at some 30 million tons, some 9 percent above the previous year and 7 percent above average for the preceding five years.
Bumper wheat and rice harvests last year are expected to have resulted in lower cereal imports in the 1996/97 marketing year with wheat imports estimated at 1.1 million tons and rice imports 150 000 tons. As a result of favourable production last year, the overall food supply situation is considered to be satisfactory. As at the end of June, Government held stocks were estimated at 873 000 tons of cereals, including 466 000 tons of wheat and 407 000 tons of rice.
Planting of main wet season paddy is underway and will be completed soon. Although final outcome will depend heavily on the quantity and distribution of rainfall over the next few months, so far this monsoon season conditions have been generally favourable for crops. However, in the provinces of Takeo, Prey Veng and Stung Treng, farming activities for the cultivation of paddy are behind schedule due to unfavourable weather. The area planted is expected to be above average this year. The 1997/98 target for paddy production has been set at 3.6 million tons, slightly higher than output in 1995/96. Aggregate paddy production in 1996/97, was around 3.39 million tons, from an area of 2.17 million hectares.
Heavy rains recently will help ease a serious drought affecting northern parts of the county over the last few weeks. The rainfall occurred over the provinces of Shaanxi, Shanxi, Henan and Hebei. Earlier, in some areas, precipitation since June has been reported to be 40 to 60 percent lower than normal. Unconfirmed reports estimate that by mid July, more than 20 million hectares of farmland had been affected by the drought. Widespread rain is still needed to maintain average yield prospects for summer crops. In contrast in southern and eastern parts of the country, heavy rains and floods have killed an estimated 101 people and damaged 4.2 million hectares of farmland. Drier, warmer weather is needed across southern parts. Notwithstanding the drought and floods official reports indicate that aggregate grain production this year will be around 484 million tons, slightly lower than last year's record 490 million tons. Official estimates put the summer grain harvest at 123.95 million tons, some 9 million tons higher than earlier forecast and 10.75 million tons above last year.
The harvesting of the 1997 and barley crops is near completion. Due to below-normal precipitation during the growing season, the output of wheat and barley crops is estimated at 138 000 tons, some 4 percent less than last year. Cereal production normally covers less than one-third of total domestic requirements.
Imports of wheat in 1997/98 (May/April) are forecast at 90 000 tons, unchanged from last year. Aggregate imports of barley and maize are forecast at some 470 000 tons, about 15 percent higher than in 1996/97.
From the beginning to the middle of July, very heavy rainfall in the eastern parts of the country, caused significant flooding in primary rice growing areas. In contrast, more moderate showers over central parts maintained adequate to abundant moisture reserves for coarse grains and oilseeds, and increased moisture for rice across north-central parts. Elsewhere, rainfall was generally favourable for crops in western and southern parts. Overall planting conditions for the Kharif rice crop across the country were reported to be generally favourable. Since the onset of the monsoon, in early June to 6 August, 30 of the country's 35 weather sub- divisions had received normal or above normal rainfall. The ideal planting time for most kharif crops is between mid-June and mid-July. Although planting can take place through late July and early August farmers have to use lower yielding short season varieties if available.
Output of the 1996/97 wheat crop, harvested in March/April, has been officially revised up to 68.7 million tons some 4 million tons than forecast earlier, six million tons above last year and 3 million tons higher than 1995's record production of 65.8 million tons. The record outturn is partly attributed to an increase in area sown in expectation of higher prices and partly to favourable conditions during the crucial months of February and March. The official estimate of total grain production (including milled rice and pulses) has also been revised up to a record 198.2 million tons for the 1996/97 marketing year, compared to 185.04 million tons in the previous year.
Domestic procurement of wheat for 1997/98 is almost complete and it is estimated that some 9.2 million tons have been purchased, around one million tons more than last year but 3 million tons below the 1995/96 procurement of 12.3 million tons. Official reports indicate that foodgrain stocks rose to 17.4 million tons in May (12.6 million tons of rice and 4.8 million tons of wheat) from 16.4 million tons in April. Compared to May 1996, rice and wheat stocks are some 7 percent and 60 percent lower respectively.
From the beginning to the middle of July, conditions were reported to be generally favourable for the harvest of main season rice in Java. However, although scattered showers improved conditions somewhat for second season rice from dry conditions earlier, more rain is still needed in the west. The target for paddy production this year has been set at 52 million tons some 2 million tons or 4 percent above last year and 8 percent above average for the preceding five years. Official estimates put maize production at around 8.5 million tons this year up from 8.0 million tons in 1996. In an effort to increase production, the government has set a target of planting 500 000 hectares with hybrid maize this year
Maize imports are expected to rise marginally this year despite the programme to boost domestic production. Imports are estimated at around one million tons, compared with 800 000-900 000 tons last year. Unconfirmed reports indicate that so far some 500 000 tons have already been imported. The maize harvest in East Java, which contributes some 30 percent of domestic production, has started and will last through September.
IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF (1 August)
Wheat production during the last crop year fell significantly due to low rainfall in many regions, rain during harvest or excessive rains in parts, which damaged the crop. Land used for wheat cultivation also decreased as farmers switched to growing more profitable crops as the government procurement price of 480 rials (16 U.S. cents) per kg was considered too low. The government buys wheat from farmers at set prices and sells bakeries for bread production at heavily subsidized prices. As a result of lower domestic production in 1997, official estimates put wheat imports at around 5 million tons during the current 1997/98 marketing year (April/March).
A recent FAO/WFP Food Supply and Nutrition Assessment Mission estimated production of the main cereals in 1997 at 2.2 million tons, the lowest since 1991.
Given serious supply constraints, the government has implemented a number of measures aimed at achieving greater self-sufficiency in food. Notwithstanding these interventions, a significant reduction in area planted and yields in 1997 resulted in a substantial decrease in domestic food production. An estimated 2.76 million hectares were planted to cereals in 1997, some 13 percent lower than 1995, previously the lowest year since 1991.
In recent years, yields of wheat and barley have remained stagnant at around 800 and 700 kg/hectare respectively. The estimated wheat yield of 757 kg/hectare in 1997 is lower than in the previous two years and ranged between 1.1 tons/hectare on good irrigated lands, 900 kg/hectare on good rainfed lands and 650 kg/hectare on marginal rainfed land. For barley, the estimated yield in 1997 (663 kg/hectare) is lower than in 1996 (788 kg/hectare) but better than all previous years since 1991. Paddy and maize yields are estimated at about 2 tons/hectare respectively. The Mission noted that crop yields remain low due to several factors. These include poor land preparation as a result of lack of machinery, low use of inputs, deteriorating soil quality and irrigation facilities, increased insect/pest/weed infestation and continuous use of land without proper replenishment of plant nutrients through appropriate fertilizer use or adoption of proper crop rotations. The Mission noted that although there has been some improvement in the overall food supply situation following the implementation of Security Council Resolution (SCR) 986, malnutrition still remains a serious problem throughout the country and the Mission widely observed severe cases of marasmus and kwashiorkor.
Reflecting unfavourable weather during the growing season, the output from the recently harvested wheat crop is estimated to have decreased by 10 000 tons to 140 000 tons.
Imports of cereals in 1996/97 (October/September) are estimated at some 1.8 million tons about 6 percent less than last year. Purchase of imported wheat by local flour millers is linked to the domestic wheat procurement at a price higher than that prevailing in the world market.
In the first dekad of July, heavy rainfall, in the aftermath of earthquakes earlier, resulted in mudslides on the southern island of Kyushu killing 19 people. Most of the casualties were around the city of Izumi in northern Kyushu. Elsewhere, heavy rainfall (200-400 mm) caused flooding and possible rice damage across southern parts of Honshu, Kyushu, and Shikoku. These regions account for about 30 percent of the country's total rice production. In contrast light to moderate rain (15- 50 mm) and warm weather (temperatures 1-3 degrees C above normal) favoured rice across the major producing areas of northern Honshu.
Aggregate output of wheat and barley crop in 1997 is expected to be 18 percent less than 67 000 tons harvested last year. Domestic cereal production normally meets about 10 percent of the consumption requirements and the balance has to be imported, mostly on commercial terms.
Imports of wheat in 1997/98 (July/June) are estimated at 0.64 million tons, similar to last year.
In the first two dekads of July, widespread moderate to heavy rains (20 to 150 mm) were received in most parts of the country, whilst overcast skies kept temperatures slightly below normal (-1°C to -3°C) across southern parts. Overall, weather conditions continued to favour developing main season rice, to be harvested from October-November. The target for milled rice production in 1997 has been set at 4.87 million tons, compared to a favourable crop of 5.25 million tons in 1996. Official efforts, as last year, are also being made to reduce the decline in area under paddy and increase extension services to encourage rice production. Output in 1996 was some 13 percent above the 4.66 million tons produced in 1995, above the target of 4.8 million tons and some 4 percent above average for the preceding five years.
KOREA, DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF* (4 August)
Although rains during May were above normal, in June and July very little rainfall was received resulting in severe drought, officially reported to be the worst in over sixty years. In addition, average temperatures in July in some areas were above 35 degrees Celsius, three to five degrees above normal. The lack of rainfall coupled with high temperatures have meant that large numbers of reservoirs, rivers and streams had dried up, seriously affecting crop growth and irrigation supplies. The maize crop in northern agricultural parts of the country has been particularly affected, though recent reports indicate that paddy in the south have also been damaged. In view of the severity of the drought an FAO/WFP drought assessment mission is currently visiting the country to assess damage.
In July/August 1995 and 1996 heavy rainfall and widespread floods significantly reduced domestic food production and extensively damaged agricultural structures and arable land. In addition to weather hazards, food production continues to be seriously constrained by the lack of agricultural inputs, especially fertilizers. As a result of input constraints and damage to the sector, cereal production this year is expected to remain well below needs, even if weather remains favourable.
In view of falling productivity in agriculture in May 1997 the government assessed the quantity of fertilizer needed for 1997 rice planting at 50 000 tons. FAO conveyed this request to the international community and have pledges of some 29 000 tons. Earlier, FAO assisted the country with a double cropping programme covering 37 000 hectares of barley to enhance food production. The programme is expected to produce 37 000 tons.
The dramatic decrease in food supply in the country over the past two years has resulted in a significant increase in dietary problems and malnutrition, which in some segments of the population has become chronic and life threatening. A joint FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission in May, observed that the emergence of commonly recognized pre-famine indicators suggest that starvation will ensue in segments of the population before the next harvest in the absence of significant food imports. In an effort to determine the extent of malnutrition in the country WFP in collaboration with FAO, UNICEF and SCF (UK) will undertake a nutrition assessment in August/September.
In June, it was estimated that the country still carried a significant deficit of some 940 000 tons, allowing for commercial imports of 430 000 tons of cereals, multilateral/bilateral food assistance of around 560 000 tons and reductions in the use of grain for animal feed and industrial uses. At the end of July multilateral/bilateral food assistance totaled 710 000 tons. On 2 July, FAO and WFP jointly approved a revised emergency operation for $46 million dollars for assistance to 2.6 million children six years and under, 250 000 farmers under food-for-work activities and one million hospital patients, bringing the total case load to 4.7 million people. The revised emergency operation aims to increase cereal rations to children from 100 grams to 250 grams per caput/day and also provide extra quantities of high energy biscuits and dried skimmed milk for malnourished children.
Following high temperatures and low rainfall in June, scattered thundershowers are gradually improving conditions for main season rice. However, more rain is still needed. The crop will be harvested in November/December.
In 1996, adverse weather conditions seriously affected rice production in major rice producing areas in the lowlands of Central and Southern Region. The provinces of Khammouane, Savannakhet and Champasack were the most affected, where an estimated 420 000 people require assistance.
In view of the shortage, in March 1997 an emergency operation was jointly approved by FAO and WFP, to raise 30 240 tons of rice for flood victims. Donors have provided cash to purchase 14 700 tons of glutinous rice in Thailand. About half of this quantity has already been distributed by NGOs; the remainder should arrive in the country by mid-September.
Production of wheat and barley in 1997 is estimated at 44 000 tons and 19 000 tons respectively, virtually unchanged from previous year. Domestic cereal production normally covers only about 10 percent of the consumption requirements and the balance is made up from imports.
The government plans to launch a plan to boost annual agricultural growth to 20 percent from the current seven percent over the next three years. The plan would include modern irrigation schemes, 30 percent increase in irrigated lands, the planting of 1 500 acres (about 600 hectares) of forests annually, a rise in the number of plant nurseries from 9 to 13, and loans to small farmers.
Imports of cereals, mainly wheat, in 1997/98 (July/June) are forecast at some 0.72 million tons, slightly lower than the previous year.
Below normal rainfall in June reduced moisture for crops and oil palm across northern parts of the country, though near- to above-normal rainfall prevailed across southern portions of the peninsula. Earlier, planting of the second paddy crop, which normally accounts for around 38 percent of aggregate annual production, was completed under generally favourable conditions. Paddy production this year is estimated at around 2.1 million tons, around average and similar to last year.
Cereal production in the country continues to decline as a result of continuing problems in the agricultural sector. In addition this year, reports indicate that output may fall, due to a shortage of seed at the time of planting, which would leave some 50 000 hectares out of a target of some 280 000 to 300 000 hectares planned, unplanted.
Transitional problems in the economy, coupled with dwindling domestic cereal supplies severely constrain the country’s ability to feed its people. Vulnerable segments of the population, such as the elderly and the unemployed, have limited financial resources to purchase food. This year, reports from NGOs and international agencies working in the country indicate that the nutritional situation in parts of the country has deteriorated sharply with significant numbers of people having severely reduced food intake.
For the most vulnerable groups in society, those categorized as being absolutely poor, an FAO mission last year recommended that some 22 000 tons be provided in emergency food aid. As of end-July a donor has provided some 13 000 tons.
During May, rainfall was reported to be below normal which may have delayed planting of monsoon paddy particularly in the Tanintharyi Division of Rakhine State.
Early estimates put paddy production in 1997/98 at around 17 million tons, of which some 13.4 million tons is expected from the wet season crop and 3.6 million tons from the second dry season, crop. Harvested acreage is forecast to total around 5.6 million hectares for both crops. The target for 1997/98 production had been set at 19 million tons.
Rice exports in 1998 are projected around 350 000 tons. The price of paddy fell slightly in June as most of the dry season crop had been harvested and came into the domestic market.
Output of wheat is estimated at around one million tons, similar to last year’s above average production. Agriculture in the country remains largely rain-fed, with only about 30 percent of irrigable land supplied with either river or ground water. Moreover, recent studies indicate that if the target of doubling foodgrain output by the year 2000 (from that in 1985) is to be achieved, there needs to be much greater use of inorganic fertilizer .
June was generally wet, providing widespread precipitation over agricultural areas. Normally during June crops are at risk of moisture stress, though this year, favourable moisture conditions benefited crops.
The estimate for 1997/98 wheat production has been revised up by 500 000 tons from 15.8 million tons earlier, to 16.3 million tons. The primary reason for a larger crop than anticipated is favourable weather conditions from March through May and a 6 percent increase in average yields. In addition, reported damage to the wheat crop from the rains in early April was localized and not significant. In efforts to increase wheat production in 1998, the government plans to increase the supply of quality seeds during the next sowing season to begin in November/December.
Official reports indicate that the government plans to import some 4 million tons of wheat in 1997/98 to build stocks.
June rainfall averaged near to below normal across most of the country and weather conditions during most of July have been reported to be generally favourable for development of main season rice. Notwithstanding these reports, however, recent meteorological reports from the country indicate that drought conditions may develop due to the “El Niño” in the last quarter of 1997, which may affect rice planted in October/November for harvest in 1998. The Agriculture department has started a campaign among farmers to plant short maturing rice and maize varieties to minimize vulnerability to potential damage from either extended drought or floods and typhoons.
Official reports indicate that unmilled rice production is expected to reach 7.14 million tons or some one percent higher for the first nine months of the year compared to 7.07 million tons in the same period last year. The increase in production is attributed to a slight increase in yields to 2.95 tons/hectare per hectare from 2.90 tons/hectare last year. Maize production is also expected to increase by around 5.5 percent to 3.46 million tons for the first nine months of 1997 from 3.28 million tons last year. The increase is attributed to higher yields and slight increase in area.
The output from the recently harvested 1997 wheat crop is estimated at 1.5 million tons, some 25 percent higher than in previous year. The output of barley crop is expected to increase 78 percent to 0.8 million tons from 0.45 million tons last year.
Large-scale Desert Locust control operations on the Red Sea Coastal plains ended on 9 June. Low numbers of adult locusts and some small groups are expected to persist and mature in a few places along the southern plains of the Red Sea coast near Jizan.
Imports of barley in 1997/98 (July/June) are forecast at 5.4 million tons marginally up compared to previous year. Barley consumption in the next few years is expected to increase significantly following the expansion of poultry, dairy and sheep breeding as well as of fattening projects.
This year the southwest monsoon commenced on June 10 but only became active on June 23 and more rain is still needed to replenish irrigation and hydro electric reservoirs. Last year, as a result of a dry southwest monsoon, reservoir levels dipped to record lows. Rice production from this year's main 'maha' and second 'yala' crop is expected to be around 1.68 million tons (milled equivalent) , some 20 percent higher than last year's drought reduced crop though over 400 000 tons lower than record production in 1995. This year's target for the 'yala' crop, to be harvested in August/September, is 1.15 million tons. The country requires some 2.17 million tons for rice utilization and has an import requirement of around 490 000 tons.
The aggregate production of cereals in 1997 is estimated at 5.9 million tons, marginally lower than last year. While the output from the wheat crop increased by some 120 000 tons to 4.2 million tons, barley production, estimated at 1.4 million tons, was some 253 000 tons lower than in 1996. The maize output is estimated at about 300 000 tons, some 45 percent higher than in previous year.
Imports of wheat flour in 1997/98 (July/June) are forecast at some 120 000 tons, same as last year. Imports of maize are forecast to remain at about last year’s level of 330 000 tons, while rice imports in the 1997 calendar year are estimated at 120 000 tons. Export availabilities of barley in the current year are put at 0.5 million tons.
Widespread showers (20-80 mm) over central parts of the country in second dekad of July, reduced stress on rainfed maize and rice crops and increased irrigation supplies somewhat. In eastern parts of the country, heavy showers (80- 160 mm), maintained favorable moisture supplies for rice. In June, rainfall was between 80 percent and 50 percent lower than normal across central parts of the country, seriously stressing rainfed crops. Overall, although the 1997 monsoon season started on time, distribution of rainfall has not been good and some areas have not received adequate moisture for planting main season rice.
Rice production in 1997/98 is provisionally forecast at around 21.8 million tons, almost 600 000 tons higher than the previous year, though final outcome will depend heavily on weather conditions during the remainder of the monsoon season. Low rainfall in June and early July may result in delayed planting of the main crop and affect overall production. High prices are expected to encourage farmers to expand plantings, though recent devaluation of the Bath is anticipated to increase imported fertilizer and insecticide costs.
Wheat production in 1997 is provisionally estimated at about 17 million tons, 8 percent lower than last year. Output from the barley crop is estimated at 8.5 million tons, 6 percent higher than in previous year. Maize production is expected to increase by 14 percent from last year, to 2 million tons. An estimated 50 000 hectares of cotton were shifted to corn production in Cukurova, a major corn-growing area, before the announcement of new prices. This shift is expected to continue in the near future.
To encourage the consumption of the local crop, which currently is priced well above world market levels, the government has raised, effective 29 June, import duties on milling wheat and maize (from 15 to 35 percent), durum (from 15 to 30 percent), sorghum (from 3 to 30 percent) and barley (from 15 to 20 percent). Wheat imported for processing is exempt from duty if both the flour and bran are re-exported within six months.
Wheat imports in 1997/98 are unofficially forecast at about 2 million tons, similar to last year. The 1997/98 maize imports are forecast at 450 000 tons, unchanged from last year.
Widespread showers (30-100 mm) in the second dekad of July generally favored planting of the main 'tenth month' rice crop for harvest in October. However, more rains are still needed in some areas.
Aggregate paddy production for 1997 is estimated at around 27 million tons, which is above average and similar to 1996.
The Government plans to enhance rice exports through the establishment of a national fund to support rice exporters through quality improvements of exports to meet international demand. The country exported some 3 million tons of rice in 1996, a notable increase over the previous year, making it one the foremost rice exporters in the world. The Government target for rice exports in 1997 is 3.5 million tons.
Following favourable growing conditions in most areas so far, except in Hodeidah, the aggregate output of sorghum and millet in 1997 is estimated at 0.53 million tons, about 29 percent higher than in previous year. Wheat production in 1997 increased from 149 000 tons to 165 000 tons.
Desert Locust numbers is likely to increase in the interior between Ataq and Marib as a result of breeding. Small scale hatching is expected to have started from mid July. Some adults and perhaps a few small groups may appear from the north on the Red Sea coastal plains where small scale laying could occur in areas that receive rainfall.
Imports of cereals in 1997 - mainly wheat - are estimated at some 2 million tons, virtually unchanged from last year.
WFP continues to feed 8 000 Somali refugees in camps. Their food requirement is covered until the end of the current year.