The harvest outlook is unclear largely due to a shortage of credit. Recently privatized farms are unable to obtain credit from banks and government directives to the oil industry to supply farmers with fuel on credit are being challenged. As a result the spring crop area declined to 14.5 million hectares. The aggregate area sown to grains and pulses for harvest in 1997 has fallen by 1.6 million hectares to 15.5 million hectares and is well short of the targeted 17 million hectares. The area sown to wheat fell to 11.4 million hectares from 12.2 million in 1996. Yield expectations for the minor winter wheat crops are satisfactory and spring crops have, on the whole, benefited from timely rains. The outcome of spring plantings will depend crucially on weather in the months to come but also on the timely availability of fuel and machinery for harvesting. Even with better weather and yields than last year, the grain production target of 14 million tons may not be met in view of the reduced areas sown and the financial problems on many farms. Current indications point to a cereal harvest close to last year�s 12.5 million tons estimated by FAO.
The 1996 grain harvest is officially reported to be 11.6 million tons but is unofficially estimated to be up to 3 million tons higher, as farmers seek to maximize earnings in cash or kind. The country is estimated to have exported about 3 million tons of cereals in 1996/97 and is expected to remain an exporter also in the coming year.