The Government has declared a state of emergency in 9 of the 24 departments of the country in order to adopt the necessary measures in anticipation of “El Niño” effects which are forecast for the second half of the year. The strongest impact is expected, however, between December and March next year. Floods are forecast in the northern parts, while dry conditions are expected in the south. Allocated funds will be used to improve the agricultural sector with the repair of irrigation channels, strengthening of bridges and other projects, particularly in the northern department of Piura, one of the worst affected areas by “El Niño” in the past. Harvesting of the 1997 cereal crop is underway. Aggregate cereal output is provisionally forecast at 2.3 million tons, slightly below last year record. Small declines are expected from all cereals, except maize, which should be at a record level and thus compensate for the overall anticipated reduction.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1997 (January/ December) should be about 1.2 million tons, similar to 1996 high level of imports. Maize imports are provisionally forecast at 750 000 tons while those of barley should be about 70 000 tons.