The winter grain harvest (mainly wheat and some barley) is nearing completion and output is officially reported to be 640 000 tons. This is substantially larger than last year’s poor output of 400 000 tons in response to a reduction in the marginally-irrigated areas sown to wheat and higher (if still unremunerative) farm prices. The minor spring crop (maize and rice) could bring aggregate output up to about 750 000 tons, but nevertheless this remains well below average. Ambitious targets to achieve self sufficiency in cereals are proving unrealistic given the shortage of arable land, the shortage of fertilizers and inputs, the low producer prices which, coupled with poor cultivation techniques and low yields, offer poor incentives to farmers to tend the crop. The country has adopted very gradualist approach to the reform process and only in December of 1996 (well after the winter grain planting season) some provisions were made to encourage private farmers, and the procurement price was raised to almost U.S.$ 80 per ton.
The country is well endowed with natural gas and the wheat deficit is expected to be covered by commercial imports. In 1996/97 the country has likely imported about 500 000 tons of cereals. In 1997/98 the domestic utilization of cereals is estimated at about 1.1 million tons of cereals including 650 000 tons for direct human consumption. Given a cereal harvest of about 735 000 tons (with rice in milled equivalent) the cereal import requirement in 1997/98 is estimated at around 360 000 tons, mainly wheat. Feed use of grains has come under pressure following last year’s very poor harvest and animal numbers are reported to be falling sharply.