Current crop condition and early harvest returns substantiate official forecasts of a markedly better 1997 grain harvest. Latest reports indicate that the area sown to grains has increased sharply, to 15.3 million hectares (1996: 13.2 million hectares) and, barring poor weather during the harvest, most of this area is expected to be harvested. Some 11.2 million hectares have been sown on the reorganized state farms and the balance in the private sector. Growing conditions have been good this year, with adequate moisture for both winter and spring crops in most areas. Only 650 000 hectares of the winter crop area of 7.5 million hectares needed to be resown, and 90 percent of winter grains are maturing in good or satisfactory condition. The spring grains are also developing well: 80 percent are in good condition. As a result, average crop yields are expected to be markedly better than last year and the 1997 grain (cereal and pulse) harvest is provisionally forecast to be of the order of 35-37 million tons. Output of wheat could increase to 19-20 million tons, (from an estimated 15 million tons in 1996) also reflecting the 1.2 million hectare increase in the area sown. Both the area and yield of coarse grains are expected to increase and output could approach 14-15 million tons, (1996: 10 million tons) depending on the proportion of the maize area which will be harvested for grain rather than as silage. Production of paddy and pulses is also expected to recover.
These estimates remain provisional and may have to be lowered if rains and inadequate availability of machinery, fuel and spare parts interfere with the harvesting.
Despite the disappointing harvest in 1996 and restrictions on the movement of grain after the harvest, some informed sources indicate that up to 2.6 million tons of cereals may have been exported to other CIS states or abroad (Poland). Provided the harvest forecast materializes, the cereal supply situation in 1997/98 is expected to ease considerably, pointing to a stock replenishment after last year�s drawdown, larger exports, and increased availability of animal feed.
The government has passed a law introducing import quotas and duties on agricultural produce including grains and livestock products. Import quotas may not exceed 10 percent of domestic production in the preceding year.