Early harvest returns point to a larger grain harvest than in 1996 but harvest progress is being impeded by persistent rains and fuel shortages. The condition of the standing crop is good and official forecasts for the harvest range from 70 to 80 million tons. However, the final result will depend crucially on weather conditions until the completion of the harvest, the availability of fuel and operational machinery and the timeliness of the harvesting activities. Although farm credit has been extremely limited this year, most farms have managed to plant grains, at the expense of other, less remunerative crops. Additional credit is to be made available via the commercial banking system to facilitate the harvesting operations. However, over 70 percent of farms are indebted and some may not be eligible for this credit. In addition, a number of powerful industries are reported to be investing in agricultural production to ensure food supplies for employees or for barter transactions.
The aggregate area sown to crops decreased by 4 percent to 95.7 million hectares but that sown to grains fell by only 0.4 million hectares or 1 percent in response to remunerative prices and good demand for foodgrains. The area sown to wheat remained stable at 25.7 million hectares while that sown to feedgrains continued to decline in response to further reductions in animal inventories and poor demand for feedgrains despite the small harvest last year. Growing conditions have been good this year in most major producing areas although crops in Eastern Siberia and Altay Krai have suffered some moisture stress and yields here are expected to be less than last year. Application of fertilizer and pesticides have increased, but remain low. Although soil exhaustion after successive years of inadequate fertilization and shortages of liquidity are expected to keep yields low, early harvest returns point to a crop which could be significantly larger and of better quality than that harvested last year. The 1996 harvest is officially estimated at only 69.3 million tons but was probably at least 10 percent higher. Barring persistent rains during the harvest period and reflecting good yield expectations, FAO�s forecast of the 1997 cereal and pulse harvest is 77 million tons, about 1 million tons larger than estimated output in 1996. Production of wheat is forecast to rise to 40 million tons from 38.5 million tons last year, in response to better yield expectations for both winter and spring crops. Production of coarse grains could be slightly higher than last year�s level of 34 million tons, as better yields offset the reduction in the area sown. Paddy production, under pressure from cheaper imports, is expected to decline further to 340 000 tons and output of pulses could rise to around 2 million tons in response to better yields. However, the final result will depend crucially on weather conditions until the completion of the harvest.
Demand for cereals has fallen sharply in recent years due to a sharp reduction in animal numbers, increased use of grass fodder and increased imports of livestock products in lieu of feedgrains. In 1996/97, net cereal imports are estimated to have declined to about 1.3 million tons, mainly wheat and barley sourced from Kazakhstan and the Ukraine. In 1997/98 cereal trade is not expected to be larger.
WFP is completing the provision of supplementary food assistance to some 90 000 displaced persons in areas surrounding Chechnya. WFP operations will be phased out by September 1997.