Despite a reduction in the irrigated area sown to grains and earlier reports of poor autumn growing conditions for rainfed winter grains, preliminary harvest reports indicate that average yields have improved. Latest official reports indicate that 1.49 million hectares were sown to these grains and that the average (bunkerweight) yield from the 1.1 million hectares harvested to date is 2.4 tons per hectare, 9 percent more than last year. Depending on the proportion of irrigated and non-irrigated land that has been harvested, current indications are that the 1997 wheat and barley output could be of the order of 3.0 -3.3 million tons and the total harvest (including spring planted maize and rice) of the order of 3.5-3.7 million tons compared to an estimated 3.4 million tons in 1996.
The country needs about 5 million tons of cereal per annum to cover the domestic cereal consumption requirement and the shortfall of 1.5 million tons is expected to be imported commercially. The controlled price of bread was increased by 42 percent to soum 20, (US $ 0.31) per 600 gram loaf in July.
Latest indications continue to point to another above-average cereal output in the Community in 1997 although the quality of many crops may be poorer than normal. FAO's latest forecast puts the EC's 1997 cereal crop as 202 million tons, down from the record crop of 208 million tons last year but still well above the average of the past 5 years. Overall plantings are estimated to have risen by about 2 percent but yields are expected to be down from last year's bumper levels. Crop potential was affected in many parts by drought conditions earlier in the season, and recent heavy rainfalls, particularly in the south of the United Kingdom and Germany, are hampering crop maturation and harvesting leading to concerns of further loss of yield and crop quality. The bulk of the reduction in this year's cereal output is in wheat, which is now forecast at about 95.5 million tons, slightly less than expected earlier and some 4 million tons down from last year. The aggregate coarse grain crop is forecast to fall only marginally to about 104 million tons from 105 million tons in 1996.