Unfavourable weather during the growing season has adversely affected the cereal crop now being harvested. Aggregate cereal production in 1997 is expected to fall to a 20-year low of about 1.08 million tons from a record of 4.6 million tons in the previous season and less than half the average for the previous five years. Drought has probably scorched about 65 percent of the country's 3.5 million hectares sown to cereals. Wheat output in 1997 is estimated at 750 000 tons, about 73 percent lower than in the previous year. Production of barley is estimated to decline sharply to 300 000 tons from 1.7 million tons harvested in 1996.
As a result of the low level of domestic output in 1997, imports of wheat (excluding semolina) in 1997/98 (July/June) and those of coarse grains are forecast to increase sharply from last year�s 3.0 million tons and 0.8 million tons, respectively.
WFP�s relief operation for 1997/98 (July/June) provides 6 250 tons of basic food commodities to assist 49 000 most vulnerable Western Sahara refugees.
The output from the recently harvested wheat crop, almost entirely irrigated, is estimated at about 5.5 million tons, some 4 percent less than last year. Despite favourable weather conditions until April, strong dust storms and high temperatures at the end of the growing season adversely affected yields.
Imports of wheat and wheat flour in 1997/98 (July/June) are forecast to decline slightly to 6.2 million tons. Coarse grains imports, (virtually maize only) are forecast to remain at last year�s level of 2.7 million tons.
Reflecting unfavourable growing conditions, only some 4.8 million hectares were planted to cereals in 1996/97 season compared with some 6 million hectares in 1995/96. Cereal production in 1997, mainly wheat and barley, is estimated at 3.35 million tons, well down on last year�s record output of 9.7 million tons.
Reflecting the low level of production, imports of wheat in 1997/98 (July/June) are forecast to increase by 1.4 million tons to 2.4 million tons. The value-added tax on sorghum and maize has been reduced from 20 percent to 7 percent.
Cereal production in 1997 is expected to be significantly lower than last year�s record of 2.9 million tons, but of higher quality due to absence of diseases. Due to unfavourable weather and lower plantings, the output of the wheat crop is estimated at 660,000 tons, about one-third of the previous year�s harvest, while barley production is estimated to decline by 570 000 tons to 265 000 tons. The area planted to cereals in the 1996/97 season dropped markedly, especially in the main producing northern areas.
Imports of wheat in 1997/98 (July/June) are forecast to
increase sharply to 1.1 million tons from 0.4 million tons
imported last year. In the current year the country will also
need to resume barley imports.
WESTERN
AFRICA
After the start of the rainy season in March, rainfall was widespread and abundant in April, May and June. Well above average rainfall occurred in April over the centre and in June over the south of the country. Flooding occurred in June in Cotonou and Porto Novo. The Government has appealed for international assistance. The main maize crop is being harvested, while millet and sorghum are growing satisfactorily in the north. Following favourable conditions in 1996, a good cereal harvest was gathered, notably in Borgou and Atacora. The ONASA (Office National d�Appui � la S�curit� Alimentaire) estimated 1996 cereal output at about 667 000 tons. Production was above average in northern departments but low in the southern departments, due mainly to an increase in areas planted to cotton. The production of roots and tubers, which represents a significant part of food consumption, is estimated at about 2.9 million tons. Pulse production is put at about 147 000 tons.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory. The Government is setting up a security stock of about 1 000 tons of maize and assisting the creation of on-farm stocks. Domestic prices and food availability are influenced by informal cross-border trade with neighbouring countries. Although this is decreasing, maize is still imported from Togo and Nigeria. Foodcrop prices have stopped increasing as the first harvest is promising and markets well supplied. There are about 11 000 Togolese refugees remaining in Benin. The cereal import requirement for 1997 (January/December) is estimated at 190 000 tons (including re-exports), mostly wheat and rice, of which 16 000 tons of food aid.
Following generally adequate rains in late May and June, precipitation was below normal and badly distributed during the first two dekads of July except in the north. Rains increased significantly during the last dekad over the entire country. Following these reduced rains in July, cumulative rainfall which was above average in May and June due to an early start of the rainy season, became equal or slightly below average as of late July. With the improving rains in late July, millet and sorghum crops have recovered and are developing satisfactorily. Precipitation remained widespread in early August. In the southern half of the country, crops are generally in the vegetation stage. Plantings and replantings are completed countrywide. Pastures are regenerating quickly in the north. Water reserves are well replenished.
Grasshoppers infestations have been reported on 1 500 hectares, including 1 320 hectares of planted areas. Treatments are underway. Caterpillars attacks have also been reported on 4 350 hectares.
Following an above-average 1996 harvest, the overall food supply situation is satisfactory and markets are generally well supplied. Due to arrival on the markets of fresh maize and early millet, cereal prices are decreasing in most provinces except in the north where they are increasing and where some population may face food supply difficulties. The government has provided cereals for the "banques de c�r�ales" in the areas at risk. Deficits in northern provinces can be covered by transfer of cereals from the south, for which external assistance may be required. Cereal needs for ongoing food aid programmes can also be covered by local purchases. There are about 24 000 Tuareg refugees from Mali who are currently receiving food assistance. Their nutritional status is reported to be stable.
The first significant rains were registered on 20 and 22 July on Santiago island, 20 to 22 July and 30 July on Fogo island and 21 July on Brava island. The weather remained dry on Santo Antao and San Nicolau islands. These first rains allowed planting and germination of maize on Santiago and Fogo islands. Maize production in 1996 was particularly poor, which may cause problems of seed availability in some areas.
As the country imports the bulk of its consumption requirement, the overall food supply situation will remain satisfactory despite the very reduced 1996 crop. However, rural populations, notably in the semi-arid zones, have been severely affected and may need assistance. The government has launched an appeal for external assistance including projects for the supply of drinking water, livestock support and assistance to vulnerable groups. The cereal import requirement in 1997 is estimated at 90 000 tons and the food aid requirement at 65 000 tons. Pledges reported so far amount to 61 000 tons.
Following generally above normal rains in June over most producing areas, precipitation remained widespread and abundant in July. Well above normal rains have been received in July in the Sahelian zone as well as in the south-east. Precipitation was particularly abundant in late July in the eastern regions (in Ouadda� and Salamat prefectures) and remained widespread and regular in early August. Cumulative rainfall as of late July is normal to above normal almost everywhere. Reflecting these favourable growing conditions, soil moisture reserves are adequate and coarse grains are developing satisfactorily. Pastures are regenerating well countrywide.
Grasshoppers are reported in Biltine and in Moundou regions. Treatments have been undertaken in Biltine region. Low numbers of solitary Desert Locust adults may be present in some parts of B.E.T (Borkou-Ennedi-Tibesti) and lay on a small scale in areas of favourable conditions.
Following a below-average crop in 1996, the food supply situation remains tight in 1997, notably in the Sahelian zone where cereal prices are much higher than in previous years. In addition, the national security stock, which has a recommended level of 22 000 tons, is completely exhausted. The National Early Warning System (SAP) had estimated the need of vulnerable populations in the Sahelian zone at 19 500 tons of cereals to be distributed during 6 months from March. The most affected populations are in Biltine prefecture which experienced drought for the second consecutive year and pest attacks, but also in Batha and Kanem prefecture. The Government has sent sorghum to be sold at subsidized price in many of these prefectures and food distributions started in June. Following an appeal for external assistance amounting to 50 000 tons of cereals, launched by the government in December 1996, several donors confirmed or announced food aid contributions, either with imported cereals or from local purchases, notably in Salamat region. Current pledges amount to about 41 000 tons; therefore additional contributions are required to cover the deficit . In addition, the distribution of food aid in the affected areas is very slow and several villages or cantons targeted have not received any. Distributions of 7 700 tons of food aid to 356 000 beneficiaries under a World Food Program emergency food operation started in June in Biltine and Kanem regions. As of 15 July, more than 3 300 tons of food has been distributed to 275 000 beneficiaries. An FAO/WFP project is also scheduled to provide assistance to the national food information and coordination unit (CASAGC) for the monitoring of the food supply situation and food aid contributions.
Light rains, which started in the south in early March became very abundant during the third dekad of the month over the whole country and remained widespread and abundant in April. In May, rainfall decreased in the first and second dekads, resumed towards the end of the month and remained abundant in early and mid June. A significant reduction occurred during the last dekad of June. In July, rainfall has been normal to above normal. The main maize crop is maturing satisfactorily while the planting of millet, sorghum and rice is almost complete. Reflecting good climatic conditions, the output of cereals in 1996 is officially estimated at an above-average level of 1 787 000 tons.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory and markets are well supplied. About 305 000 Liberian refugees are present in the western departments. Their nutritional status is reported to be adequate. WFP, NGOs and other donors estimated the caseload of Liberian refugees to be assisted from January 1997 at 175 000 people. The cereal import requirement for 1997 (January/December), is estimated at 505 000 tons, mostly wheat and rice.
Following above normal precipitation in June which permitted the start of plantings, rains decreased somewhat in early July and stopped during the second dekad. They resumed during the third dekad but remained below normal. This dry spell may have affected recently planted crops and delayed transplanting of rice.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory except in Upper River Division following floods which affected crops in 1996. Rice stocks and planned imports are sufficient to cover consumption requirements in the months ahead. The rice market is well supplied but prices are higher than last year. Following floods in Upper River Division, a multi- disciplinary team estimated the needs of 150 000 affected persons at 2 235 tons of milled rice and recommended the purchase of early millet, maize and rice seeds to be distributed before the 1997 crop season. Cereal imports in 1996/97 are estimated at 110 000 tons and the food aid requirement at 13 000 tons. More than 600 refugees arrived from Sierra Leone following the coup in late May.
Rainfall started in early March in the south and became abundant over the entire country towards the end of the month. Rains remained abundant and widespread until the third dekad of June when they decreased significantly. As of beginning of July, precipitation remains above average over the entire country. The main maize crop is maturing satisfactorily in southern and central parts while the sowing of millet, sorghum and rice are drawing to an end in the north.
Reflecting good weather conditions and the end of ethnic conflicts in the north, the output of cereals in 1996 is officially estimated at an above-average level of 1.77 million tons. Some Togolese refugees still remain in Ghana after large repatriations in 1996. Also about 135 000 Liberian refugees, whose nutritional status is reported to be adequate, are present in the country. The 1997 cereal import requirement is estimated at 387 000 tons, mostly wheat and rice.
Rains started in late March in the extreme south-east, increased in the south in April and became abundant over the entire country in May and June. Cumulative precipitation as of the end of June is above average. The first maize, millet and sorghum crops are growing satisfactorily, while they are at emerging/tillering stage in the centre. Sorghum is still being planted in the north. Planting of rice is completed, except for swamp and low-lying areas in the south. As a result of below-normal, though widespread, rainfall and shortage of fertilizers, aggregate cereal output in 1996 is estimated at 890 000 tons, which is about average.
Markets are well supplied with both local and imported rice. Quantities of rice imported during the first quarter of the year are much lower compared to last year. The Government has imposed a ban on potato imports to support the prices of locally produced products. The cereal import requirement for 1997 is anticipated to be 375 000 tons. In June, it was estimated that about 545 000 Liberian and Sierra Leonean refugees were in Guinea, most of whom assisted with emergency food aid. With the new political developments in Liberia, refugees are likely to begin returning while an additional 30 000 refugees from Sierra Leone have arrived during the last two months following civil disturbances. The caseload of refugees targeted for food aid distribution in 1997 amounted in June to 293 000 Liberians and 173 000 Sierra-Leoneans. Following the recent upheaval in Sierra Leone and subsequent population movements, the number of Sierra Leonean refugees will need to be reviewed.
Abundant rains in June permitted widespread plantings of coarse grains in the east and the north and an early start of land preparation in swamp areas. As precipitation was less abundant in July, transplanting of rice from seedbeds to swamp areas has been delayed. Precipitation increased in early August, allowing transplanting to continue following desalination of swamp rice fields.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Markets are generally well supplied and prices remain mostly stable. In May, the CFA Franc replaced the peso following the entrance of Guinea-Bissau into the UMOA (Union Mon�taire Ouest Africaine) and the Franc zone. This will facilitate commercial exchanges with neighbouring Senegal and Mali which have the same currency. Cereal imports for domestic use and re-exports in 1996/97 are estimated at about 70 000 tons, mostly rice. The structural food aid requirement is estimated at 6 000 tons.
Rains started in late February in the south-east, becoming widespread over the entire country only in late March, which is quite late. Precipitation remained abundant and widespread in April, May and early June, and decreased during the second and third dekad of June. Cumulative rainfall as of the end of June is reported normal to above normal. The season is well under way and planting period for upland (rain-fed) rice is just over. Food production in 1997 is expected to improve somewhat from past years. Relative peace and stability continue to prevail throughout the country and have exerted a positive influence on farming activities. The farming population has been very busy with land preparation and planting, particularly in Lofa, Bong and Nimba counties considered to be the grain basket of the country. Therefore, the cultivated area this year should be substantially higher than in 1996. Although the lack of hand tools and the limited stock of rice seed were limiting factors, this was alleviated by a massive seed and tool distribution programme. Preliminary reports show that some 118 000 vulnerable families, or some 55 percent of the total, should have been reached by the seed and tool distribution programme. No major climatic constraint or pest have been reported. Rice and cassava yields should be similar to the estimates for the 1996 growing season.
Following the disarmament and demobilization of some 21 300 soldiers, security conditions are returning to normal. A peace keeping force is deployed in the country and national presidential elections were held in mid July 1997. The food supply situation is improving following recovery of trade and commercial activities. The displaced population is spontaneously returning to areas of origin. Data collected by international organizations show that at least 50 000 Liberian refugees have resettled in Lofa, Nimba and Grand Gedeh counties during the first five months of the year. At the same time the numbers of internally displaced persons in Monrovia and Buchanan were sharply reduced with at least 100 000 people moving mainly to Grand Bassa, Rivercess, Bomi and Cape Mount counties. Food aid is being distributed to cover consumption needs during the planting season. Food supply on the urban market is stable and, in general, prices have declined since the beginning of the year. In particular, the price of imported rice in Monrovia has gone down from 25 Liberian Dollars/kg to 21 Liberian Dollars/kg. However, the food supply situation in rural areas will continue to be tight, especially during the lean season of August-September. Overall, Liberia will remain dependent on food aid, especially for the counties with a high number of returnees.
Following generally above normal rains in May, precipitation remained abundant in the west in early and mid-June and in the centre in mid and late June. Above normal rains were registered in the centre-east in early and mid-July and in the south-west in late July while they remained generally widespread and regular in the other regions. Cumulative rainfall as of 31 July is reported normal to above normal for most meteorological stations of the south and the centre. It is well below normal in Kayes, Mopti and Nara. Coarse grains are growing satisfactorily in the south and are emerging in the Sahelian zone, while rice is emerging or being transplanted in the �offices-riz�. Pastures are regenerating satisfactorily and water is abundant in water points.
Grasshopper infestations are reported on millet and sorghum in the Sahelian zone, notably in Dilly, Fallou, Mourdiah and S�b�t� areas where some replantings have been necessary. Caterpillars attacked young sorghum in Kiran� area. Groups of Desert Locust adults appeared in June in the Adrar des Iforas and west of Tombouctou near Lac Faguibine and Lac Fate, where conditions were favourable for breeding. Nomads reported a large swarm in the Tilemsi Valley and in the Timetrine area but control operation teams could find only low densities of adults during further surveys. Low numbers of solitary adults are expected to persist in some parts of the Adrar des Iforas, Timetrine and Tilemsi as well as further west near Tombouctou. Others are likely to be present or appear near Gourma and Nioro. These are likely to breed on a small scale in those areas where conditions are favourable. These small locust numbers are unlikely to affect the food supply situation.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Prices of cereals remain below last year and supply of cereals is adequate. Fodder supply is scarce in Kidal region and in Almoustarat arrondissement of Gao region where terms of trade for pastoralists are generally less favourable than last year. Following the collapse of a dam on Lake Horo in Tombouctou region, more than 1 000 hectares usually cultivated to off-season crops were flooded, leaving about 30 000 persons without production, needing external assistance. The national early warning system recommended that the national marketing board organize intervention sales in several arrondissements in Kidal and in Tombouctou region, in order to cover needs in the Lake Horo area. For the 1996/97 marketing year (November/October), the cereal import requirement is estimated at 100 000 tons and food aid requirement at 35 000 tons. Food assistance is also being given to Tuaregs who have returned from neighbouring countries.
Reduced precipitation in July severely affected crops planted following good early rains of June. The first significant rains which reached the centre-south in early June and progressed in the south and the east in mid and late June, permitted an early planting of coarse grains. However, mostly dry weather persisted in July in the south-west while precipitation decreased significantly in mid and late July in the south-east. Dry weather was persisting in early August. As a result, most �dieri� rainfed crops plantings failed. Replantings are necessary but seed availability is limited. By contrast, prospects are more favourable for the irrigated sector where it is anticipated that larger areas can be sown.
Aerial and ground treatments against grain eating birds have been undertaken in several areas. During surveys carried out in the first half of July, solitary Desert Locust appeared in the summer breeding areas of the south, at a few places between Kiffa and Tidjikja. By the end of the month, isolated adults were also present between Nema and the Malian border to the east and south-east. Locust numbers will increase slightly in the central and eastern areas of the south as a result of solitary breeding which is expected to be on a small scale and patchy. Adults may also appear in the south- west and lay if rainfall occurs. These small locust numbers are unlikely to affect the food supply situation.
The overall food supply situation is reported to be tight for sections of the population affected by a poor crop in rainfed areas in 1996, especially in Brakna, Gorgol and Tagant regions. Cereal prices are much higher than in previous years in the same period. A multi-agency assessment of the needs of the affected populations recommended food assistance amounting to 16 500 tons for 200 000 persons for 6 months. An Emergency Operation has been jointly approved by FAO and WFP to cover these needs. The government and NGOs have also undertaken or scheduled food distributions in Nouakchott, Nouadhibou and other wilayas not covered by the WFP project. For the 1996/97 marketing year (November/October), the cereal import requirement, including re-exports, is estimated at 310 000 tons and the food aid requirement at 75 000 tons.
Following generally adequate rains in May and June over the main producing areas which permitted widespread plantings, rains increased in early July. They decreased during the second dekad but resumed in late July and early August in the west and south-west while they remained below normal in the centre and the east. Cumulative rainfall is reported above normal in about half of the meteorological stations. Plantings are completed almost everywhere. Stages of development of the crops vary in the regions but they are predominantly in the vegetative stage.
Infestations of grasshoppers are reported in Diffa and Zinder departments. Insect attacks are also reported in several areas, notably on the ni�b� in the centre-south. Low numbers of solitary Desert Locust adults are likely to be present in some parts of the Tamesna and western A�r where they are expected to breed in areas of green vegetation which developed following good rains in June-July. Other adults may appear and breed in the Tahoua and Tillabery areas. These small locust numbers are unlikely to affect the food supply situation.
Despite an above-average harvest in 1996, the food supply situation is tight in several areas which gathered poor crops, some for the second successive year. The National Early Warning System (SAPR) estimated that the arrondissements of Ouallam, Tahoua, Tanout, Tchintabaraden, N�Guigmi, Arlit, Tchirozerine, Bilma and Agadez commune are particularly vulnerable. Twenty four other arrondissements are also classified as moderately vulnerable and need to be monitored closely. Cereal prices are much higher than last year at the same period and shortages have occurred. Imports from northern Nigeria are also lower than usual due to limited cereal availability. In the vulnerable areas of Maradi, Tanout and Zinder departments, the food supply is tight and an abnormal number of families have migrated while remaining families are consuming wild food, selling small livestock or borrowing against future harvest. Substantial population movements have been reported especially in Tanout area, in Zinder department. The situation varies greatly amongst villages but assistance is most urgently needed in the arrondissement of Tanout and neighbouring areas of Dakoro arrondissement. Some assistance is also needed in urban areas where migrants from affected areas have concentrated, notably in Zinder where about 4 000 people have set up a camp. A cholera outbreak has also been reported. In the Tanout and northern Mirria area, WFP is expanding its ongoing development projects to provide food to an increased number of schools and health centres. WFP is also supplying food stocks to open 40 new cereal banks in addition to re-stocking some 72 existing ones.
Rains started in mid March in the south, remained abundant and widespread, moving northwards in April and continued copious and above average in May and June. In the south, the first maize crop is being harvested, while the crop is growing satisfactorily in the north. In the centre, planting of rainfed and irrigated rice is completed, while millet and sorghum are growing well in the north. Torrential rains in late April and early May caused a severe flooding in Ibadan.
Food supply is still constrained by high levels of post- harvest losses and high distribution costs. Shortages of fertilizers, improved seeds and pesticides were reported during planting. As a result, many farmers have switched from maize to millet, sorghum and groundnuts, which are less fertilizer dependent. Following good growing conditions during the last growing season and low pest infestations, final cereal output for 1996 is estimated at 21.6 million tons, which is higher than the previous year. About 55 million tons of roots and tubers, which are the main foodcrops, were also produced. In 1997, the Government announced the complete deregulation of the fertilizer market, including the complete withdrawal of subsidies and tax-free fertilizer imports. As a result, fertilizers will be available but at very high prices and most of the small farmers, who produce the bulk of Nigeria foodcrops, will not have access to them. A decrease in maize production is expected again for 1997, but compensated by a higher output of millet and sorghum. This is likely to have an impact in the neighbouring countries, notably Niger and Chad, which usually import coarse grains from Nigeria to cover their needs. The cereal import requirement for 1997 is estimated at 1 250 000 tons, including 900 000 tons of wheat and 250 000 tons of rice.
Mostly dry weather in mid July severely affected newly planted crops. Following generally early and above normal rains in May in the south-east and in the rest of the country in June, precipitation decreased in early July and weather became almost completely dry during the second dekad of the month over the entire country. Rains resumed during the last dekad, except in the north-west, but remained generally below normal. In early August, the northern half of the country remained mostly dry. Cumulative rainfall as of late July is reported below normal everywhere except in the extreme south. Following the good early rains, land preparation and wet planting started earlier than usual in the south and the centre. The dry spell in mid-July is likely to have severely stressed crops and recently planted crops may have failed on large areas. Replantings will be necessary notably in the centre and the north but seed availability problems may occur.
Grasshoppers infestations are reported in Diourbel, Fatick, Kaolack and Louga regions. Caterpillar attacks in mid-July have been treated by village teams.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory, although markets in urban areas are better supplied than in rural areas. Prices of cereals are generally lower than last year but are starting to increase in several markets with the arrival of the lean season. The country imports large quantities of rice to cover its consumption requirement. External assistance may be required for the mobilization of cereals from the south to northern deficit areas. For the 1996/97 marketing year (November/October), the cereal import requirement is estimated at 650 000 tons, mostly rice and wheat and the food aid requirement at 22 000 tons. So far 10 000 tons have been pledged.
The recent political upheaval in Sierra Leone has aggravated the already precarious food security situation in the country. Following the upheaval, the security situation remains very volatile, international aid workers have been evacuated and rehabilitation projects have been put on hold. Up to 20 000 people have fled to neighbouring countries, mostly to Guinea and The Gambia. As a result of the embargo imposed by ECOWAS, the food supply situation is tightening in the main towns. The price of rice has doubled in Freetown and the supply of food and water is deteriorating. As a result, people are increasingly consuming bulgur wheat and cassava. An acute fuel shortage is also reported and severely affects all economic activities. Only a limited number of shops and markets have re-opened since the upheaval. Limited food distributions to vulnerable people in Freetown, Bo, Kenema and Makeni are underway for about 26 000 persons. Despite the looting, about 21 000 tons of relief food was reported to be available in the country as of first of July. In late 1996, an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission estimated paddy production at about 391 000 tons which was 10 percent above the previous year. Production of root crops was also projected to increase by 7 percent to an estimated 328 000 tons. Cereal import requirement for 1997 had been estimated at 260 000 tons and the food aid requirement at some 80 000 tons. Cereal food aid requirements to support resettlement/rehabilitation activities implemented by WFP and CRS had been estimated at 60 500 tons. With the current upheaval, import and food aid requirements will increase significantly.
Insecurity has severely hampered agricultural activities, especially the planting of the main crops which normally takes place in April to June. Light rains started in late March in the south-east, and remained very sparse in April. The rainy season properly started in early May with substantial and widespread rains throughout the month. Precipitation remained widespread in June and decreased during the third dekad. Planting of millet, maize and rice are drawing to an end, while sorghum is emerging. However, the upheaval and subsequent insecurity will adversely affect the 1997 food production. Contrary to previous expectations resulting from the return to peace, planted areas are likely to be sharply reduced. Some farmers are abandoning their farms while others are discouraged from cultivating large areas. For rice, which is the main cereal, seedbeds have already been planted but transplanting still needs to be done. With regard to cassava, the impact may be less as this crop can remain stored in the ground. For all planted crops, the reduction of activity in the fields during the growing cycle will reduce yields. Insecurity will also affect the distribution of inputs. Thus, despite the implementation of rehabilitation programmes until mid-May, the prospects for the 1997 food production have deteriorated and the country will continue to rely heavily on food aid to meet its consumption needs.
Rains started in early March over the south and the centre, and became abundant during the last dekad of March. Precipitation remained abundant and widespread in April, May and June. Cereal output in 1997 is expected to be above average. The main maize crop is maturing or harvested, while planting of millet and sorghum is drawing to an end in the north. Following abundant but irregular rainfall, the cereal output for 1996 is estimated at about 650 000 tons, which is above average. Root and tuber production is estimated at about 980 000 tons and pulses at 56 000 tons, both higher than last year.
Markets are well supplied with foodstuffs. Prices, which had
increased from January to June, are now decreasing, following
the marketing of fresh crops and vegetables. About 10 000
refugees from Ghana remain in the country but the overall
number declined significantly in 1996 following repatriation
which was encouraged by a shift in humanitarian aid policy
from relief to rehabilitation, such as provision of seeds and
money, and a reduction in food aid distributions.
CENTRAL AFRICA
CAMEROON (1 August)
Rainfall started in early March over the south, moved towards the north during the second and third dekads, allowing the planting of the main maize crop. Rains remained abundant and widespread in April, May and June. Cumulative rainfall as of the end of June is reported above average over the whole country. Planting of rice, millet and sorghum is drawing to an end in the north, while the main maize crop is being harvested in the centre.
The cereal import requirement for 1997/98 (July/June) is estimated at 260 000 tons of wheat and rice and 10 000 tons of coarse grains.
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC (8 August)
Rainfall started in early March over the south, moved towards the north during the second and third dekads, and remained abundant and widespread in April, May and June. Rice is being planted in the south, while planting of millet and sorghum is drawing to an end in the north. The main maize crop is being harvested.
Following a ceasefire in the local conflict, around one- quarter of the nearly 100 000 people displaced by the civil disturbances in Bangui had returned to their homes in July. However, fighting restarted in early August and the security situation is very volatile. In addition to the more than 35 000 refugees from Rwanda, Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo who arrived in the Central African Republic in late May/early June, there are 27 400 assisted Sudanese refugees in the country. Approximately 5 000 Chadians also receive food assistance. For the 1997 marketing year (January/December), the cereal import requirement is estimated at 39 000 tons, mainly wheat and rice.
Rainfall was abundant and widespread in March and April over the whole country, started to decrease in mid May and stopped in late May in the south. Precipitation is widespread in the north. The harvest of the second maize crop is underway. From July 1, the government has increased the export taxes on cocoa, cotton, sugar and rubber from 13.5 to 15 percent.
Civil disturbances erupted in early June in Brazzaville, where they have affected the food supply situation. More than half of the 900 000 people living in the capital have been displaced and almost 5 000 foreigners, who were providing income to many people, have been evacuated. Humanitarian agencies have temporarily suspended their assistance. Fighting resumed in early August and the security situation remains very volatile. An FAO Food Supply Assessment Mission is planned as soon as the security situation permits it. Before the fighting, the overall food supply situation was satisfactory. Production of staple foodcrops (roots, tubers and plantains) amounts to about 650 000 tons. Markets are well supplied with these crops. Cereal production in 1996 was estimated at some 27 000 tons, mainly maize. For the 1997/98 marketing year (July/June), the cereal import requirement is estimated at 113 000 tons, mostly wheat, including a structural food aid requirement of 2 000 tons. About 20 000 Rwandan refugees have arrived in Congo in May and June.
CONGO, DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF * (4 August)
There was abundant precipitation over the entire country since the beginning of the year. Rainfall moved towards the north in May, decreased and stopped in the south and the centre but remained widespread over the rest of the country. In the north and south, the second maize crop is being harvested while the main maize planting is underway in the centre. Millet and sorghum are growing satisfactorily in the east. In Rutshuru, near Goma, the current sorghum, maize and coffee crops are reported to be poor, due to intermittent rains, lack of basic inputs as well as delayed plantings due to civil strife and population displacements. This is also likely to be the case in many other areas, particularly in eastern, central and southern areas, although the main foodcrop, cassava, can be stored in the ground and is less affected by a lack of inputs. Distribution of seeds and tools would be especially useful in the centre and the south, where the next planting season is starting now.
The food supply situation is still critical in the east where severe malnutrition is reported among the remaining refugees and the security situation is still tense. In addition to about 190 000 internally displaced persons (IDPs), of whom some 95 000 in Masisi, humanitarian sources estimate the number of remaining refugees at more than 20 000. UNHCR reports that as of 6 July, a total of 54 500 Rwandan refugees had been repatriated. However, some 50 000 Rwandan refugees were also reported around Mbandaka, near the Congolese border, with an unknown number in forests. Many refugees were suffering from severe malnutrition. In addition, there are an estimated 50 000 assisted and 119 000 unassisted Angolan refugees in the south of the country. While most of the unassisted population is expected to return spontaneously following the improvement of the situation in Angola, repatriation of the assisted refugees has started. Around 92 000 Sudanese and 37 000 Ugandan refugees also remain in the country.
The 1997 cereal import requirement (January/December) is estimated at 180 000 tons of wheat and rice and 60 000 tons of coarse grains.
Rains started in early March in the south and moved towards the north. Rainfall was abundant in April and the first half of May, decreased in the second half of the month and resumed in June. The staple foodcrops are sweet potatoes, cassava and plantains. Some 10 000 tons of wheat and rice are imported annually. The food aid requirement in 1997 is estimated at 2 000 tons of wheat.
After limited rainfall in February, rains increased in March,
became abundant over the entire country in April and early
May and decreased from mid May and June. The staple foodcrops
are cassava and plantains, the production of which is
estimated at about 330 000 tons. Production of cereals in
1996, mainly maize, is estimated at around 25 000 tons. The
country imports the bulk of its wheat and rice requirement
which is estimated at 76 000 tons. No food aid is necessary.
EASTERN AFRICA
BURUNDI* (1 August)
A recent FAO/WFP Mission found that the second season crops, which in 1996 accounted for 36 percent of the aggregate food production, benefited from improved security, increased supply of fertilizers and better weather conditions compared to the same season last year. However, the amount of quality seeds distributed were not sufficient and no pesticides were available. The Mission estimates the 1997 B season food crop production at about 1.7 million tons some 4 percent over the same season last year. The cereal production is estimated at 138 000 tons, that of pulses at 185 854 tons, roots/tubers at 714 039 tons and bananas at 662 512 tons Total food production in 1997, including the A season crop harvested earlier in February, is estimated at 3.5 million tons. The cereal harvest increased by an estimated 10 percent while that of roots and tubers rose only marginally. By contrast, the output of pulses dropped by 4 percent while that of bananas and plantains decreased slightly. As a consequence total production is about the same as in 1996, thus resulting in increased import requirements.
Food import requirements in 1997 are estimated at 20 000 tons of cereals and 56 000 tons of pulses. Commercial imports of cereals and pulses are currently forecast at 3 000 tons and 12 000 tons, respectively. Food aid needs are estimated at 17 000 tons of cereals and 44 000 tons of pulses. Available estimates put the country�s population at 5 980 000. Of these, some 11 percent are considered displaced persons living outside their homes, mainly in camps. A large number of them have limited access to land to carry out agricultural production activities. This situation calls for the continuation of food assistance support until these affected people become self reliant.
Prospects for the 1997 main season cereal crops to be harvested from November are favourable, reflecting good cumulative rains since June in most agricultural areas. Prices of cereals, which have remained stable in the past months started to increase in June. An FAO Mission which visited the country last December estimated cereal production one-third below average and food aid requirements in 1997 at 289 000 tons of cereals. However, pledges by the end of June amounted to only 29 000 tons. Food security in the country remains highly precarious.
This year�s �belg� season (February-May), started later than normal. This delayed plantings and resulted in a sharply reduced planted area. Official sources indicate that actual plantings are unlikely to have reached one-third of the planned targets in the belg crop producing zones of North Shewa, Southern Tigray, North and South Wollo. Rains in April were irregular, and below-normal in both amount and distribution. Weather conditions were also poor in the first week of May and as a consequence crops were severely stressed, resulting in a substantial drop in production from last year�s record output. The crops most affected are sorghum in East Shewa and Tigray, wheat and barley in South Wollo, North Shewa, and parts of Arsi.
The planting of the main 1997 �meher� season crops is completed and a good harvest could be achieved if weather conditions over the coming months turn out to be favourable. Availability of agricultural inputs is reported to be satisfactory but the area planted may decline from last year�s level due to farmers� response to prices of cereals which at planting time were lower than their levels of a year ago. It is too early to have an indication about the size of this year�s harvest, but is unlikely to reach last year�s record outturn.
The food situation at the national level remains generally satisfactory, reflecting mainly the record cereal harvest of last year. Consumer prices are generally stable, but there is a difficult food situation in several areas, notably in the pastoral areas in the eastern and southern parts of the country. In the northern part of the Amhara region, some 1.4 million persons are reported to be in need of food aid. The total number of persons needing food assistance is now estimated by the Government at about 3.4 million. This is sharply higher than the 1.9 million estimated previously and reflects mainly the inclusion of drought-affected population in the pastoral areas of the Somali Region, Bale and Borena of Oromyia, and parts of Southern Region.
The long rains season maize crop, currently nearing maturity, benefited from above-normal rains in late March and April. These rains counteracted somewhat the adverse impact on yields of delayed plantings due to the late start of the season. Dry conditions in May again affected yield prospects except in some areas near Lake Victoria which received good rains in late June. While an average maize crop is anticipated, the output of wheat is expected to increase, reflecting above-average plantings and satisfactory weather conditions. Aggregate production of cereals, including the already harvested short-rains crops, mostly coarse grains, could exceed last year�s harvest but will be well below the 1994 record. Plantings of beans and Irish potatoes have been reduced. Overall, the food supply situation remains tight and this is reflected in increased food prices. The distribution of food aid by WFP and some NGOs continues in pastoral and marginal agriculture areas affected by a succession of drought years. This has somewhat eased the difficult food situation.
The 1997 second season food crops are generally in good condition and ready for harvest. Rains during the growing season have been generally adequate and a larger area than last year was planted, mainly due to the massive return of refugees. There are, however, some areas where rains were excessive and had adverse effect on crops, especially in the prefecture of Butare where a considerable crop loss is certain. According to the findings of an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited the country in June, the area planted to the 1997 B season crops is larger than at the same time last year. However, the assessment further reveals that plantings were still below pre-crisis levels because of a variety of factors restricting cultivation. These include the late arrival and settlement in their communes of a large part of refugees, land disputes between returnees and current farm occupants, and lack of inputs. The mission�s estimate of 1997 B season total food production is 1.941 million tons, the bulk of which is bananas and roots/tubers. Compared to last year, the total food output from season B is some 6 percent higher. The cereal harvest, estimated at about 128 000 tons, exceeds last season�s outturn by 17 percent but well below from the pre- crisis level of 1990. By contrast, the production of roots and tubers declined slightly but that of pulses was sharply reduced because of excessive rains. As pulses constitute the main source of protein in the diet of the population and harvest from season A had also been poor, the situation could become alarming.
Overall, the food situation can be considered to be better than last year as harvests from both A and B seasons are larger than in 1996. Aggregate food production for 1997 is estimated at 3.8 million tons, about 7 percent higher than last year but down from the average of pre-crisis. Reflecting below-average food production, the food supply situation remains precarious in several areas. For those relying on purchases for part or all of their consumption requirements, access to food has become exceedingly difficult. As a result, the need for food assistance remains strong. The Mission estimated food aid requirements for cereals and pulses at 31 000 tons and 103 000 tons, respectively. The Mission also recommended that donors provide further assistance in the form of seeds, farming tools and other inputs to ensure that next year's planting of food crops will not be hampered.
A recent FAO/WFP Mission to the country found that the 1997 �Gu� season started early in most parts of Somalia, being favourable for rainfed crop establishment. The main sorghum and maize producing areas, located in the south, received above average rains at the beginning of the season (late March - April), but declined to below-normal levels in May - to pick up again in June and early July. Cropped area declined by 6 percent over last year�s �Gu� season, to 423 000 hectares; this is still 17 percent below the pre- strife average (1982-88) of 512 000 hectares. Yields remained at low levels due to moisture stress at the critical point of moisture requirements and uncontrolled pests and diseases as well as lack of inputs, particularly fertilizers and high- yielding seeds.
Total sorghum and maize production of the �Gu� season in 1997 is forecast at 241 000 tons, similar to last year�s level of 242 000 tons. Of this estimated total, 123 000 tons account for sorghum and 118 000 tons for maize. Comparing the current �Gu� season with that of 1996, there are considerable variations in regional performance. Significant improvements, generally both for sorghum and maize, have been achieved in Lower and Middle Shabelle, Lower and Middle Juba, Gedo and Hiran, although, in some cases, there are great differences between districts. Major declines in production are anticipated for Bay and Bakool regions; production is also expected to be lower in the North-west region, where harvesting will take place in October. Five districts are particularly at risk of food shortage and will need special assistance: two in Bay region (Baidoa and Bur Hakaba), two in Bakool region (Xuddur and Tieglow) and one in Hiran (Bulo Burti). An assessment of the number of people mostly affected by serious food shortages and with limited coping alternatives in these districts was not yet completed at the time of the Mission.
Countrywide, the picture of access to food, as influenced by market prices, varies considerably by commodity and region. Retail prices for sorghum and maize, which had sharply increased over the past year, declined with the harvest, but started to rise again in the first week of August. Overall, local quality goat and cattle prices declined significantly.
Assuming a normal 1997/98 �Der� season production of 95 000 tons of sorghum and maize (to be harvested in January- February 1998), the total cereal deficit for the marketing year August 1997/July 1998 is estimated at 247 000 tons, of which 215 000 tons are forecast to be imported commercially. This would leave a cereal food aid requirement of 32 000 tons. WFP�s current food aid planning for Somalia over the next 12 months envisages the provision of some 14 000 tons of cereals. The European Union�s intention to monetize 9 000 tons of cereals through local traders in Ethiopia�s Region 5, adjacent to Somalia�s severe deficit areas, is expected to have a spill-over effect in the latter country. Since prospective food aid from other sources will be minimal, a considerable uncovered food aid gap will remain and the consequences of a deteriorating food supply position will emerge later in the marketing year, unless appropriate remedial actions are immediately taken. The distribution of food continues to be hampered by security problems.
FAO�s estimate of the recently harvested wheat crop, based on the findings of an FAO Crop Assessment Mission in April 1997, remains at 650 000 tons. This is an above-average harvest second only to the record output in 1991/92 and some 23 percent higher than last year. The increase reflects generally favourable growing conditions and a larger planted area due to farmers� response to supportive Government policy and expectations of higher prices. The area planted to wheat increased by 7 percent to 334 000 hectares. The estimate of sorghum production in 1996 is currently put at 4.2 million tons, slightly higher than previous forecasts.
The overall food situation has so far been generally satisfactory. However, the food supply situation in some provinces remains highly precarious. An aggregate deficit of around 600 000 tons of cereals is estimated for six states in Darfur and Kordofan, Red Sea State and the South. While some of the deficits may be met through normal internal trade, prospects for an easy flow of supplies are not good, especially in North Kordofan and North Darfur. In those areas where accessibility poses the greatest problem, a large number of people are bound to experience hardships. The situation is worse in the southern states where economic activity has been adversely affected by many years of civil war. In this part of the country, some 2.6 million war- affected and displaced persons need emergency food aid estimated at 52 176 tons, of which cereals would account for 39 000 tons. In May FAO and WFP jointly approved an emergency operation to provide emergency food assistance to 2.3 million war and drought affected population.
Harvesting of the 1997 main season �long rains� crop in the unimodal areas of the south and the centre is virtually completed, while that of the �Masika� crops in the bi-modal rainfall areas of the north is well advanced. The output of the �long rains� season, where the bulk of the maize crop is produced, is estimated below normal as a result of a late start of the rainy season, as well as irregular and insufficient precipitation, particularly in central areas. Extensive replanting with short term varieties in these areas did not sufficiently offset the negative impact of the dry weather. By contrast, prospects for the �Masika� crops are generally good, reflecting adequate weather conditions during the season, except in the Lake Victoria basin, where the harvest is anticipated to be poor. The �Vuli� crops, harvested until February in the bi-modal rainfall areas were sharply reduced by prolonged dry weather.
Latest official estimates indicate a 1997 aggregate production of cereals of some 3 million tons, significantly lower than last year�s output. Given this reduced production, there will be a substantial shortfall, currently forecast at 850 000 tons. In addition to substitution with non-cereals foodcrops, much of the deficit is expected to be covered by commercial imports. However, food aid assistance will be required for some 3.6 million people, mainly in the regions of Mara, Shinyanga, Arusha, Dodoma and Tabora, where the crops were reduced and serious food shortages are developing. Prices of maize, rice, sorghum and cassava are currently twice their level of a year ago. The situation of some 400 000 refugees from Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo remains a big concern.
The harvesting of the second season crops is proceeding and production is expected to be lower than last year. Except in a few districts, growing conditions have generally been unfavourable and plantings in the northern part have been adversely affected by insecurity. Given the poor harvest from the first season crops due to erratic rains in some areas and dry weather and/or floods in others, aggregate cereal production is forecast at 1.643 million tons. Rains were late in the eastern, southern and western districts. The outputs of pulses and plantains are also forecast to decline. Only production of root crops is expected to show a marginal increase, but the widespread infestation of Cassava Mosaic Virus poses a serious problem.
Domestic prices have declined in recent weeks despite the expected fall in production. The decline, however, is unlikely to be sustained as prices may be reacting only temporarily to the arrival on the market of new supplies from the new second season crop, now being harvested and supplies arriving from across the border with Kenya. The decline in bean prices is particularly significant. Beans are now offered at around Shs. 700 per kilo compared to Shs. 1300 in March. However, the overall food supply situation will remain tight as the expected increase in food production will not be adequate to cover consumption requirements in several areas. An estimated 612 000 persons who were adversely affected by drought/flood, face food shortages as they are unlikely to harvest sufficient quantities of food during the second season of this year. Moreover, the situation remains serious for some 150 000 internally displaced persons in several northern districts due to civil strife.
SOUTHERN AFRICA
ANGOLA* (1 August)
The 1997 cereal crop is estimated at 431 000 tons, 15 percent below last year�s good harvest, due to below normal rainfall. Rainfall was characterized by a late start, an extended mid- season dry spell and a variable finish, resulting in canceled or delayed planting and lower yields, in several regions, particularly in western coastal areas. The area planted has increased thanks to NGO and UN Agency interventions providing seeds and tools to internally displaced persons and returnees. However, cereal production continues to be constrained by the shortage of fertilizers, plant protection equipment and chemicals, hand tools and animal traction equipment in the main producing areas.
The national food supply situation continues to be tight. With domestic cereal utilization estimated at 972 000 tons, some 531 000 tons of cereal need to be imported during the marketing year 1997/98. An estimated 279 000 tons may be imported by commercial channels, leaving a shortfall of 252 000 tons to be met by food aid, including 128 000 tons of emergency food aid for vulnerable groups. In addition, food aid will be required to assist the rehabilitation process. Furthermore, the recent outbreak of hostilities in the north- east is worsening an already precarious security situation, indicating that more food assistance will be required in the coming months. Food aid pledges for the current marketing year amount to 183 000 tons so far, of which 129 000 tons have been delivered.
The 1997 coarse grain crop is estimated at 27 000 tons, including 21 000 tons of millet and sorghum, which is one- third of last year�s crop. Maize production has dropped to 6 000 tons against last year's 23 000 tons. Yields for crops planted in November/December may have been adversely affected by the February dry spell. Some pests were also reported during the season including Quelea birds in parts of central, northern and southern areas.
The food supply situation for the 1997/98 marketing year is expected to be satisfactory as cereal import requirements are likely to be met commercially.
Official estimates of the 1997 harvest point to an output of 109 000 tons of cereals, which is below average and much lower than the record crop in 1996. This is partly due a dry spell in February in southern districts and early frost in the last two weeks of April. Maize production is estimated at 90 500 tons, sorghum at 13 000 tons and wheat at 5 300 tons.
Reflecting this drop in output, the food supply situation for the 1997/98 marketing year is expected to be tight. The cereal deficit is anticipated to reach 260 000 tons including about 95 000 tons of food aid for which international assistance may be necessary to meet the needs of vulnerable groups. Food aid pledged so far amount to 6 000 tons, of which 5 000 tons have been delivered.
Aggregate cereal production in 1997 is estimated at 2.7 million tons, about the same as in 1996. This is mainly due to good climatic conditions, despite a potential fall in yields as a result of the delay in transplanting the second (main) season rice. Crops in the south-west were affected by migratory locust. An FAO/WFP Mission is presently in the country to evaluate the impact of locusts on crop and food situation in southern areas. With the end of rains in May/June, swarms have moved towards the north where they are likely to pose a major threat to the rice crop in the north- west later in the year. The Government has undertaken control operations with the support of the international community and coordination by FAO.
The food supply situation during the 1997/98 marketing year is expected to be satisfactory and the bulk of the food shortfall could be covered locally and by commercial imports.
The 1997 maize crop is estimated at about 2 million tons, slightly above last year�s above average crop. The output of rice, sorghum and wheat are expected to be similar to last year. This is the result of generally abundant rainfall during the season, despite a late start of rains in the north, dry spells in several areas and flooding in parts of the south.
As a result of the favourable outcome of the season, the food supply situation is expected to be satisfactory during the 1997/98 marketing year. However, areas affected by drought in the north and by floods in the south will need food assistance and the situation should be carefully monitored during the coming months.
The 1997 production of cereals is estimated at 1.53 million tons, about 11 percent higher than last year. The maize harvest is expected to exceed 1 million tons for the first time in recent years. Production of cassava, the other major staple, as well as beans and groundnuts has also increased. As a result, the national food supply situation during the 1997/98 marketing year is expected to continue improving compared to the previous years. However, the country will have an estimated import requirement of 205 000 tons of rice and wheat. Moreover, a large number of farmers affected by floods could face food shortages in the coming months. Food
aid needs are estimated at about 112 000 tons of cereals. Pledges to date amount to 90 000 tons, of which 51 000 tons have been delivered.
NAMIBIA (1 August)
The 1997 production of cereals is estimated at a record
172 600 tons, almost double last year�s output. This is the
result of larger area planted this year and increased yields
following abundant rainfall in the northern crop growing
regions during much of the season.
The food situation is expected to be satisfactory during the
marketing year 1997/98. However, despite the record harvest,
cereal imports of 83 400 tons (wheat 46 500 and maize 36 900
tons) will be necessary to meet national consumption needs.
This requirement is expected to be covered commercially.
The 1997 total cereal output is estimated at 11.5 million
tons, 15 percent below the 1996 harvest, but above the
average of the previous five years. Unseasonably wet and cold
weather in June-July delayed the harvesting of coarse grain.
The maize crop has been revised upward to 8.5 million tons.
This is still 16 percent lower than last year�s record output
but slightly above average. Recent heavy rains should benefit
winter crops, now at germination stage.
The food situation in the marketing year 1997/98 is expected
to remain satisfactory. The country may have up to 1 million
tons of maize to export, with private traders authorized to
export any amount of maize for the first year of full
deregulation in several decades.
The 1997 maize harvest is estimated at 81 000 tons, well
below the previous year�s crop but close to average. The
reduction is explained by a complete crop failure in the
Lowveld.
The overall food supply situation for the 1997/98 marketing
year is expected to remain satisfactory as a result of the
availability of large carryover stocks from the good maize
harvest of 1996. All cereal imports during the season are
expected to be covered through commercial channels.
The 1997 cereal production is estimated at 1.1 million tons,
including a maize output of 0.96 million tons, 32 percent
lower than last year. This is the result of excessive rains
earlier in the year and inadequate fertilizer supplies. The
output of paddy and sorghum is also forecast to decline by
some 14 percent and 6 percent, respectively, from 1996
levels. In contrast, millet production is forecast to remains
unchanged at some 55 000 tons.
Reflecting the reduced domestic availability, the food supply
situation for the 1997/98 marketing year is expected to be
tighter than in the previous year. However, cereal import
requirements of some 320 000 tons are expected to be covered
through commercial channels.
The 1997 cereal production is estimated at 2.7 million tons,
compared to 3.1 million tons in 1996. The maize crop amounts
to 2.2 million tons, 16 percent lower than last year�s good
harvest but slightly above average. The output of millet and
sorghum is estimated at about 220 000 tons, about the same as
the above-average crop in 1996.
The national food supply situation is expected to remain
satisfactory during the 1997/98 marketing year. Maize supply
is expected to cover requirements, including the
replenishment of stocks, and to generate an exportable
surplus.
A recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission has
estimated the 1997 total cereal production at 3.66 million
tons, comprising 2.71 million tons of wheat, 0.4 million tons
of rice, 0.3 million tons of maize and 0.25 million tons of
barley. This harvest is some 18 percent higher than the
previous year�s and the largest crop since 1978, due to above
average and well distributed rains in most areas. The 1997
cereal crops suffered relatively little pest damage and the
harvest is being carried out in good weather conditions.
However, there is some uncertainty about the likely amount of
harvest in the eight northern provinces because of the civil
strife which has isolated this area. Although large areas are
reported to be planted, especially with rainfed wheat, and
the growing conditions were favourable, the actual harvest
could be delayed in some parts because of military activities
and labour scarcity resulting from migration. These northern
provinces together comprise 40 percent of Afghanistan�s
irrigated cereal area and 53 percent of its rainfed area.
Normally, it is a surplus region, but the movement of grain
towards the populated centre is currently impeded by the
front-line north of Kabul. This may lead to increased
carryover stocks in the north and exports into the CIS, as
well as shortages in the Kabul area, which, with its
estimated population of 1.2 million, is almost completely
dependent on imports from Pakistan. The eight northern
provinces are forecast to produce 1.3 million tons of cereals
from the current harvest, but if the intensity of military
activities increases or the conflict widens over the next few
months, harvesting could be interrupted and a reduction from
this forecast is possible.
Despite the good 1997 harvest, import requirements are
expected to be considerable. Given the rise in population,
due partly to returnees, cereal imports in the 1997/98
marketing year are forecast at 710 000 tons, similar to last
year. This implies some small build-up of wheat stocks,
mainly in the north, and some exports, roughly estimated at
150 000 tons, from the northern provinces to the CIS
countries. Most of the import requirements are expected to be
met by commercial supplies of mainly wheat flour from
Pakistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran. The imported
supplies are mostly aimed at meeting urban demand.
The Mission has estimated the 1997/98 emergency food aid
requirements at 170 000 tons, including 150 000 tons of
cereals, similar to 1996/97. The WFP is the largest supplier
providing 140 000 tons of food aid in 1997, followed by ICRC,
with 25 000 tons, and a number of NGOs. Emergency food aid is
required to meet the needs of the estimated 1.75 million
vulnerable people during the 1997/98 marketing year.
In mid July, floods killed some 80 people and left over
100 000 homeless in 19 of the country's 64 administrative
districts. Ten districts in the southeast, including
Chittagong, Cox's Bazar and the Chittagong Hill Tracts were
the worst hit. An assessment of crop losses is being made.
Although the full extent of damage will only be ascertained
when floodwaters recede, unconfirmed reports estimate that
standing crops on about 124 000 hectares were damaged. In
addition to crops, several thousand hectares on shrimp and
fish farms were also destroyed.
Harvesting of the rainfed 'Aus' rice crop, which normally
accounts for some 10 percent of production, is about to
commence. The target for the crop is 1.8 million tons. Output
of the recently harvested �Boro� crop is estimated at 7.33
million tons, slightly below target and similar to the
previous year. �Boro� paddy normally accounts for almost 40
percent of aggregate rice production. Aggregate cereal
production for 1996/97 is estimated at some 30 million tons,
some 9 percent above the previous year and 7 percent above
average for the preceding five years.
Bumper wheat and rice harvests last year are expected to have
resulted in lower cereal imports in the 1996/97 marketing
year with wheat imports estimated at 1.1 million tons and
rice imports 150 000 tons. As a result of favourable
production last year, the overall food supply situation is
considered to be satisfactory. As at the end of June,
Government held stocks were estimated at 873 000 tons of
cereals, including 466 000 tons of wheat and 407 000 tons of
rice.
Planting of main wet season paddy is underway and will be
completed soon. Although final outcome will depend heavily on
the quantity and distribution of rainfall over the next few
months, so far this monsoon season conditions have been
generally favourable for crops. However, in the provinces of
Takeo, Prey Veng and Stung Treng, farming activities for the
cultivation of paddy are behind schedule due to unfavourable
weather. The area planted is expected to be above average
this year. The 1997/98 target for paddy production has been
set at 3.6 million tons, slightly higher than output in
1995/96. Aggregate paddy production in 1996/97, was around
3.39 million tons, from an area of 2.17 million hectares.
Heavy rains recently will help ease a serious drought
affecting northern parts of the county over the last few
weeks. The rainfall occurred over the provinces of Shaanxi,
Shanxi, Henan and Hebei. Earlier, in some areas,
precipitation since June has been reported to be 40 to 60
percent lower than normal. Unconfirmed reports estimate that
by mid July, more than 20 million hectares of farmland had
been affected by the drought. Widespread rain is still needed
to maintain average yield prospects for summer crops. In
contrast in southern and eastern parts of the country, heavy
rains and floods have killed an estimated 101 people and
damaged 4.2 million hectares of farmland. Drier, warmer
weather is needed across southern parts. Notwithstanding the
drought and floods official reports indicate that aggregate
grain production this year will be around 484 million tons,
slightly lower than last year's record 490 million tons.
Official estimates put the summer grain harvest at 123.95
million tons, some 9 million tons higher than earlier
forecast and 10.75 million tons above last year.
The harvesting of the 1997 and barley crops is near
completion. Due to below-normal precipitation during the
growing season, the output of wheat and barley crops is
estimated at 138 000 tons, some 4 percent less than last
year. Cereal production normally covers less than one-third
of total domestic requirements.
Imports of wheat in 1997/98 (May/April) are forecast at
90 000 tons, unchanged from last year. Aggregate imports of
barley and maize are forecast at some 470 000 tons, about 15
percent higher than in 1996/97.
From the beginning to the middle of July, very heavy rainfall
in the eastern parts of the country, caused significant
flooding in primary rice growing areas. In contrast, more
moderate showers over central parts maintained adequate to
abundant moisture reserves for coarse grains and oilseeds,
and increased moisture for rice across north-central parts.
Elsewhere, rainfall was generally favourable for crops in
western and southern parts. Overall planting conditions for
the Kharif rice crop across the country were reported to be
generally favourable. Since the onset of the monsoon, in
early June to 6 August, 30 of the country's 35 weather sub-
divisions had received normal or above normal rainfall. The
ideal planting time for most kharif crops is between mid-June
and mid-July. Although planting can take place through late
July and early August farmers have to use lower yielding
short season varieties if available.
Output of the 1996/97 wheat crop, harvested in March/April,
has been officially revised up to 68.7 million tons some 4
million tons than forecast earlier, six million tons above
last year and 3 million tons higher than 1995's record
production of 65.8 million tons. The record outturn is partly
attributed to an increase in area sown in expectation of
higher prices and partly to favourable conditions during the
crucial months of February and March. The official estimate
of total grain production (including milled rice and pulses)
has also been revised up to a record 198.2 million tons for
the 1996/97 marketing year, compared to 185.04 million tons
in the previous year.
Domestic procurement of wheat for 1997/98 is almost complete
and it is estimated that some 9.2 million tons have been
purchased, around one million tons more than last year but 3
million tons below the 1995/96 procurement of 12.3 million
tons. Official reports indicate that foodgrain stocks rose to
17.4 million tons in May (12.6 million tons of rice and 4.8
million tons of wheat) from 16.4 million tons in April.
Compared to May 1996, rice and wheat stocks are some 7
percent and 60 percent lower respectively.
From the beginning to the middle of July, conditions were
reported to be generally favourable for the harvest of main
season rice in Java. However, although scattered showers
improved conditions somewhat for second season rice from dry
conditions earlier, more rain is still needed in the west.
The target for paddy production this year has been set at 52
million tons some 2 million tons or 4 percent above last year
and 8 percent above average for the preceding five years.
Official estimates put maize production at around 8.5 million
tons this year up from 8.0 million tons in 1996. In an effort
to increase production, the government has set a target of
planting 500 000 hectares with hybrid maize this year
Maize imports are expected to rise marginally this year
despite the programme to boost domestic production. Imports
are estimated at around one million tons, compared with
800 000-900 000 tons last year. Unconfirmed reports indicate
that so far some 500 000 tons have already been imported. The
maize harvest in East Java, which contributes some 30 percent
of domestic production, has started and will last through
September.
IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF (1 August)
Wheat production during the last crop year fell significantly
due to low rainfall in many regions, rain during harvest or
excessive rains in parts, which damaged the crop. Land used
for wheat cultivation also decreased as farmers switched to
growing more profitable crops as the government procurement
price of 480 rials (16 U.S. cents) per kg was considered too
low. The government buys wheat from farmers at set prices and
sells bakeries for bread production at heavily subsidized
prices. As a result of lower domestic production in 1997,
official estimates put wheat imports at around 5 million tons
during the current 1997/98 marketing year (April/March).
A recent FAO/WFP Food Supply and Nutrition Assessment Mission
estimated production of the main cereals in 1997 at 2.2
million tons, the lowest since 1991.
Given serious supply constraints, the government has
implemented a number of measures aimed at achieving greater
self-sufficiency in food. Notwithstanding these
interventions, a significant reduction in area planted and
yields in 1997 resulted in a substantial decrease in domestic
food production. An estimated 2.76 million hectares were
planted to cereals in 1997, some 13 percent lower than 1995,
previously the lowest year since 1991.
In recent years, yields of wheat and barley have remained
stagnant at around 800 and 700 kg/hectare respectively. The
estimated wheat yield of 757 kg/hectare in 1997 is lower than
in the previous two years and ranged between 1.1 tons/hectare
on good irrigated lands, 900 kg/hectare on good rainfed lands
and 650 kg/hectare on marginal rainfed land. For barley, the
estimated yield in 1997 (663 kg/hectare) is lower than in
1996 (788 kg/hectare) but better than all previous years
since 1991. Paddy and maize yields are estimated at about 2
tons/hectare respectively. The Mission noted that crop yields
remain low due to several factors. These include poor land
preparation as a result of lack of machinery, low use of
inputs, deteriorating soil quality and irrigation facilities,
increased insect/pest/weed infestation and continuous use of
land without proper replenishment of plant nutrients through
appropriate fertilizer use or adoption of proper crop
rotations.
The Mission noted that although there has been some
improvement in the overall food supply situation following
the implementation of Security Council Resolution (SCR) 986,
malnutrition still remains a serious problem throughout the
country and the Mission widely observed severe cases of
marasmus and kwashiorkor.
Reflecting unfavourable weather during the growing season,
the output from the recently harvested wheat crop is
estimated to have decreased by 10 000 tons to 140 000 tons.
Imports of cereals in 1996/97 (October/September) are
estimated at some 1.8 million tons about 6 percent less than
last year. Purchase of imported wheat by local flour millers
is linked to the domestic wheat procurement at a price higher
than that prevailing in the world market.
In the first dekad of July, heavy rainfall, in the aftermath
of earthquakes earlier, resulted in mudslides on the southern
island of Kyushu killing 19 people. Most of the casualties
were around the city of Izumi in northern Kyushu. Elsewhere,
heavy rainfall (200-400 mm) caused flooding and possible rice
damage across southern parts of Honshu, Kyushu, and Shikoku.
These regions account for about 30 percent of the country's
total rice production. In contrast light to moderate rain (15-
50 mm) and warm weather (temperatures 1-3 degrees C above
normal) favoured rice across the major producing areas of
northern Honshu.
Aggregate output of wheat and barley crop in 1997 is expected
to be 18 percent less than 67 000 tons harvested last year.
Domestic cereal production normally meets about 10 percent of
the consumption requirements and the balance has to be
imported, mostly on commercial terms.
Imports of wheat in 1997/98 (July/June) are estimated at 0.64
million tons, similar to last year.
In the first two dekads of July, widespread moderate to heavy
rains (20 to 150 mm) were received in most parts of the
country, whilst overcast skies kept temperatures slightly
below normal (-1�C to -3�C) across southern parts. Overall,
weather conditions continued to favour developing main season
rice, to be harvested from October-November. The target for
milled rice production in 1997 has been set at 4.87 million
tons, compared to a favourable crop of 5.25 million tons in
1996. Official efforts, as last year, are also being made to
reduce the decline in area under paddy and increase extension
services to encourage rice production. Output in 1996 was
some 13 percent above the 4.66 million tons produced in 1995,
above the target of 4.8 million tons and some 4 percent above
average for the preceding five years.
KOREA, DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF* (4
August)
Although rains during May were above normal, in June and July
very little rainfall was received resulting in severe
drought, officially reported to be the worst in over sixty
years. In addition, average temperatures in July in some
areas were above 35 degrees Celsius, three to five degrees
above normal. The lack of rainfall coupled with high
temperatures have meant that large numbers of reservoirs,
rivers and streams had dried up, seriously affecting crop
growth and irrigation supplies. The maize crop in northern
agricultural parts of the country has been particularly
affected, though recent reports indicate that paddy in the
south have also been damaged. In view of the severity of the
drought an FAO/WFP drought assessment mission is currently
visiting the country to assess damage.
In July/August 1995 and 1996 heavy rainfall and widespread
floods significantly reduced domestic food production and
extensively damaged agricultural structures and arable land.
In addition to weather hazards, food production continues to
be seriously constrained by the lack of agricultural inputs,
especially fertilizers. As a result of input constraints and
damage to the sector, cereal production this year is expected
to remain well below needs, even if weather remains
favourable.
In view of falling productivity in agriculture in May 1997
the government assessed the quantity of fertilizer needed for
1997 rice planting at 50 000 tons. FAO conveyed this request
to the international community and have pledges of some
29 000 tons. Earlier, FAO assisted the country with a double
cropping programme covering 37 000 hectares of barley to
enhance food production. The programme is expected to produce
37 000 tons.
The dramatic decrease in food supply in the country over the
past two years has resulted in a significant increase in
dietary problems and malnutrition, which in some segments of
the population has become chronic and life threatening. A
joint FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission in May,
observed that the emergence of commonly recognized pre-famine
indicators suggest that starvation will ensue in segments of
the population before the next harvest in the absence of
significant food imports. In an effort to determine the
extent of malnutrition in the country WFP in collaboration
with FAO, UNICEF and SCF (UK) will undertake a nutrition
assessment in August/September.
In June, it was estimated that the country still carried a
significant deficit of some 940 000 tons, allowing for
commercial imports of 430 000 tons of cereals,
multilateral/bilateral food assistance of around 560 000 tons
and reductions in the use of grain for animal feed and
industrial uses. At the end of July multilateral/bilateral
food assistance totaled 710 000 tons. On 2 July, FAO and WFP
jointly approved a revised emergency operation for $46
million dollars for assistance to 2.6 million children six
years and under, 250 000 farmers under food-for-work
activities and one million hospital patients, bringing the
total case load to 4.7 million people. The revised emergency
operation aims to increase cereal rations to children from
100 grams to 250 grams per caput/day and also provide extra
quantities of high energy biscuits and dried skimmed milk for
malnourished children.
Following high temperatures and low rainfall in June,
scattered thundershowers are gradually improving conditions
for main season rice. However, more rain is still needed. The
crop will be harvested in November/December.
In 1996, adverse weather conditions seriously affected rice
production in major rice producing areas in the lowlands of
Central and Southern Region. The provinces of Khammouane,
Savannakhet and Champasack were the most affected, where an
estimated 420 000 people require assistance.
In view of the shortage, in March 1997 an emergency operation
was jointly approved by FAO and WFP, to raise 30 240 tons of
rice for flood victims. Donors have provided cash to purchase
14 700 tons of glutinous rice in Thailand. About half of this
quantity has already been distributed by NGOs; the remainder
should arrive in the country by mid-September.
Production of wheat and barley in 1997 is estimated at 44 000
tons and 19 000 tons respectively, virtually unchanged from
previous year. Domestic cereal production normally covers
only about 10 percent of the consumption requirements and the
balance is made up from imports.
The government plans to launch a plan to boost annual
agricultural growth to 20 percent from the current seven
percent over the next three years. The plan would include
modern irrigation schemes, 30 percent increase in irrigated
lands, the planting of 1 500 acres (about 600 hectares) of
forests annually, a rise in the number of plant nurseries
from 9 to 13, and loans to small farmers.
Imports of cereals, mainly wheat, in 1997/98 (July/June) are
forecast at some 0.72 million tons, slightly lower than the
previous year.
Below normal rainfall in June reduced moisture for crops and
oil palm across northern parts of the country, though near-
to above-normal rainfall prevailed across southern portions
of the peninsula. Earlier, planting of the second paddy crop,
which normally accounts for around 38 percent of aggregate
annual production, was completed under generally favourable
conditions. Paddy production this year is estimated at around
2.1 million tons, around average and similar to last year.
Cereal production in the country continues to decline as a
result of continuing problems in the agricultural sector. In
addition this year, reports indicate that output may fall,
due to a shortage of seed at the time of planting, which
would leave some 50 000 hectares out of a target of some
280 000 to 300 000 hectares planned, unplanted.
Transitional problems in the economy, coupled with dwindling
domestic cereal supplies severely constrain the country�s
ability to feed its people. Vulnerable segments of the
population, such as the elderly and the unemployed, have
limited financial resources to purchase food. This year,
reports from NGOs and international agencies working in the
country indicate that the nutritional situation in parts of
the country has deteriorated sharply with significant numbers
of people having severely reduced food intake.
For the most vulnerable groups in society, those categorized
as being absolutely poor, an FAO mission last year
recommended that some 22 000 tons be provided in emergency
food aid. As of end-July a donor has provided some 13 000
tons.
During May, rainfall was reported to be below normal which
may have delayed planting of monsoon paddy particularly in
the Tanintharyi Division of Rakhine State.
Early estimates put paddy production in 1997/98 at around 17
million tons, of which some 13.4 million tons is expected
from the wet season crop and 3.6 million tons from the second
dry season, crop. Harvested acreage is forecast to total
around 5.6 million hectares for both crops. The target for
1997/98 production had been set at 19 million tons.
Rice exports in 1998 are projected around 350 000 tons. The
price of paddy fell slightly in June as most of the dry
season crop had been harvested and came into the domestic
market.
Output of wheat is estimated at around one million tons,
similar to last year�s above average production. Agriculture
in the country remains largely rain-fed, with only about 30
percent of irrigable land supplied with either river or
ground water. Moreover, recent studies indicate that if the
target of doubling foodgrain output by the year 2000 (from
that in 1985) is to be achieved, there needs to be much
greater use of inorganic fertilizer .
June was generally wet, providing widespread precipitation
over agricultural areas. Normally during June crops are at
risk of moisture stress, though this year, favourable
moisture conditions benefited crops.
The estimate for 1997/98 wheat production has been revised up
by 500 000 tons from 15.8 million tons earlier, to 16.3
million tons. The primary reason for a larger crop than
anticipated is favourable weather conditions from March
through May and a 6 percent increase in average yields. In
addition, reported damage to the wheat crop from the rains in
early April was localized and not significant. In efforts to
increase wheat production in 1998, the government plans to
increase the supply of quality seeds during the next sowing
season to begin in November/December.
Official reports indicate that the government plans to import
some 4 million tons of wheat in 1997/98 to build stocks.
June rainfall averaged near to below normal across most of
the country and weather conditions during most of July have
been reported to be generally favourable for development of
main season rice. Notwithstanding these reports, however,
recent meteorological reports from the country indicate that
drought conditions may develop due to the �El Ni�o� in the
last quarter of 1997, which may affect rice planted in
October/November for harvest in 1998. The Agriculture
department has started a campaign among farmers to plant
short maturing rice and maize varieties to minimize
vulnerability to potential damage from either extended
drought or floods and typhoons.
Official reports indicate that unmilled rice production is
expected to reach 7.14 million tons or some one percent
higher for the first nine months of the year compared to 7.07
million tons in the same period last year. The increase in
production is attributed to a slight increase in yields to
2.95 tons/hectare per hectare from 2.90 tons/hectare last
year. Maize production is also expected to increase by around
5.5 percent to 3.46 million tons for the first nine months of
1997 from 3.28 million tons last year. The increase is
attributed to higher yields and slight increase in area.
The output from the recently harvested 1997 wheat crop is
estimated at 1.5 million tons, some 25 percent higher than in
previous year. The output of barley crop is expected to
increase 78 percent to 0.8 million tons from 0.45 million
tons last year.
Large-scale Desert Locust control operations on the Red Sea
Coastal plains ended on 9 June. Low numbers of adult locusts
and some small groups are expected to persist and mature in a
few places along the southern plains of the Red Sea coast
near Jizan.
Imports of barley in 1997/98 (July/June) are forecast at 5.4
million tons marginally up compared to previous year. Barley
consumption in the next few years is expected to increase
significantly following the expansion of poultry, dairy and
sheep breeding as well as of fattening projects.
This year the southwest monsoon commenced on June 10 but only
became active on June 23 and more rain is still needed to
replenish irrigation and hydro electric reservoirs. Last
year, as a result of a dry southwest monsoon, reservoir
levels dipped to record lows. Rice production from this
year's main 'maha' and second 'yala' crop is expected to be
around 1.68 million tons (milled equivalent) , some 20
percent higher than last year's drought reduced crop though
over 400 000 tons lower than record production in 1995. This
year's target for the 'yala' crop, to be harvested in
August/September, is 1.15 million tons. The country requires
some 2.17 million tons for rice utilization and has an import
requirement of around 490 000 tons.
The aggregate production of cereals in 1997 is estimated at
5.9 million tons, marginally lower than last year. While the
output from the wheat crop increased by some 120 000 tons to
4.2 million tons, barley production, estimated at 1.4 million
tons, was some 253 000 tons lower than in 1996. The maize
output is estimated at about 300 000 tons, some 45 percent
higher than in previous year.
Imports of wheat flour in 1997/98 (July/June) are forecast at
some 120 000 tons, same as last year. Imports of maize are
forecast to remain at about last year�s level of 330 000
tons, while rice imports in the 1997 calendar year are
estimated at 120 000 tons. Export availabilities of barley in
the current year are put at 0.5 million tons.
Widespread showers (20-80 mm) over central parts of the
country in second dekad of July, reduced stress on rainfed
maize and rice crops and increased irrigation supplies
somewhat. In eastern parts of the country, heavy showers (80-
160 mm), maintained favorable moisture supplies for rice. In
June, rainfall was between 80 percent and 50 percent lower
than normal across central parts of the country, seriously
stressing rainfed crops. Overall, although the 1997 monsoon
season started on time, distribution of rainfall has not been
good and some areas have not received adequate moisture for
planting main season rice.
Rice production in 1997/98 is provisionally forecast at
around 21.8 million tons, almost 600 000 tons higher than the
previous year, though final outcome will depend heavily on
weather conditions during the remainder of the monsoon
season. Low rainfall in June and early July may result in
delayed planting of the main crop and affect overall
production. High prices are expected to encourage farmers to
expand plantings, though recent devaluation of the Bath is
anticipated to increase imported fertilizer and insecticide
costs.
Wheat production in 1997 is provisionally estimated at about
17 million tons, 8 percent lower than last year. Output from
the barley crop is estimated at 8.5 million tons, 6 percent
higher than in previous year. Maize production is expected to
increase by 14 percent from last year, to 2 million tons. An
estimated 50 000 hectares of cotton were shifted to corn
production in Cukurova, a major corn-growing area, before the
announcement of new prices. This shift is expected to
continue in the near future.
To encourage the consumption of the local crop, which
currently is priced well above world market levels, the
government has raised, effective 29 June, import duties on
milling wheat and maize (from 15 to 35 percent), durum (from
15 to 30 percent), sorghum (from 3 to 30 percent) and barley
(from 15 to 20 percent). Wheat imported for processing is
exempt from duty if both the flour and bran are re-exported
within six months.
Wheat imports in 1997/98 are unofficially forecast at about 2
million tons, similar to last year. The 1997/98 maize imports
are forecast at 450 000 tons, unchanged from last year.
Widespread showers (30-100 mm) in the second dekad of July
generally favored planting of the main 'tenth month' rice
crop for harvest in October. However, more rains are still
needed in some areas.
Aggregate paddy production for 1997 is estimated at around 27
million tons, which is above average and similar to 1996.
The Government plans to enhance rice exports through the
establishment of a national fund to support rice exporters
through quality improvements of exports to meet international
demand. The country exported some 3 million tons of rice in
1996, a notable increase over the previous year, making it
one the foremost rice exporters in the world. The Government
target for rice exports in 1997 is 3.5 million tons.
Following favourable growing conditions in most areas so far,
except in Hodeidah, the aggregate output of sorghum and
millet in 1997 is estimated at 0.53 million tons, about 29
percent higher than in previous year. Wheat production in
1997 increased from 149 000 tons to 165 000 tons.
Desert Locust numbers is likely to increase in the interior
between Ataq and Marib as a result of breeding. Small scale
hatching is expected to have started from mid July. Some
adults and perhaps a few small groups may appear from the
north on the Red Sea coastal plains where small scale laying
could occur in areas that receive rainfall.
Imports of cereals in 1997 - mainly wheat - are estimated at
some 2 million tons, virtually unchanged from last year.
WFP continues to feed 8 000 Somali refugees in camps. Their
food requirement is covered until the end of the current
year.
Planting of the 1997/98 main cereal crop is complete. Growing
conditions are good but outturn will largely depend upon the
effects of �El Ni�o� whose impact is principally expected
towards the end of the year. Maize output, mostly white, is
provisionally forecast at an average 30 000 tons. Production
of paddy is expected to be about 195 000 tons, close to last
year's slightly above-average volume but still short from
meeting domestic requirements.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1997/98 are forecast to be
about 175 000 tons compared to 165 000 tons in the previous
year. Maize imports (mostly yellow maize) are anticipated to
be close to last year's relatively high receipts of 280 000
tons, in response to the steady demand from the animal feed
industry. Rice imports in 1997 (January/December) should be
about 50 000 tons, similar to 1996. Imports of beans, an
important staple in the population diet, should be some
20 000 tons to help cover large production losses caused by
adverse weather and help contain consumer prices which
increased as a result of the shortage.
Harvesting of the 1997 first season maize crop is about to
start following some interruption at planting caused by
torrential rains. Provisional forecasts indicate that output
should be about 90 000 tons which compares to last year's
slightly above-average 85 000 tons. By contrast, paddy
production should be again a low 100 000 tons reflecting the
continuing government difficulties in financing the import of
farm inputs. Satisfactory outputs of vegetables and roots
have been so far obtained.
Sugar cane production, a major foreign exchange earner, is
expected to decline from last year's 4.45 million tons to
about 4.2 million tons, mostly the result of the continuing
shortage of agricultural inputs.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1997/98 (July/June) are
forecast to be similar to last year's receipts of 650 000
tons. Maize imports should increase slightly to about 255 000
tons. Paddy imports in 1997 are expected to be between
375 000 and 400 000 tons in order to help meet the steady
domestic demand.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC (20 August)
Growing conditions have deteriorated for the 1997 first
season rainfed maize and sorghum crops, as well as that of
the secondary irrigated paddy crop and other minor foodcrops,
as a result of insufficient precipitation in July. Field work
has stopped in several areas and price speculation on some
basic food items is reported. Harvesting is about to start
and coarse grain outputs should decline from last year but
would nevertheless remain about average. Harvesting of the
main irrigated paddy crop has been completed and an above-
average 540 000 to 560 000 tons is provisionally estimated
for both crops.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1997 (January/December) are
expected to be about 265 000 tons, slightly above the
previous year receipts. Maize imports are forecast to
increase from 675 000 tons to about 690 000 tons, reflecting
the improved demand from the poultry sector which had
undergone a period of limited constraint. Rice imports should
be a relatively high 40 000 tons, despite the bumper crop
collected. This is mainly the result of government's decision
to cope with eventual stockpiling and price speculation,
similar to that experienced during the dry spell in the first
half of the year.
Unseasonable dry weather since end-June has negatively
affected the developing first season crops, particularly in
the extreme southeastern region, which includes the provinces
of Moraz�n, San Miguel, Usult�n and La Uni�n. In view of the
anticipated impact of �El Ni�o� in the next few months, a
series of measures are being contemplated by the Government
to help mitigate its possible effects. Eventual problems of
drought may result and the reinforcement of current reserves
of maize, beans and rice, is being planned, as well as other
contingency strategies, in the provinces to be most likely
affected. As a consequence of the damage incurred to the
first season maize crop, production of maize is presently
forecast at about 540 000 tons compared to last year's
630 000 tons and a 5-year average of 619 000 tons. The
outlook is uncertain for the sorghum and paddy crops, as well
as for the bean crop.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1997/98 (August/July) should
increase from the previous year's 195 000 tons to about
205 000 tons. Maize imports should increase from last year�s
185 000 tons to 300 000 tons to help cover the deficit in
production. Rice imports in marketing year 1997
(January/December) should be about 205 000 tons, close to
1996.
Insufficient precipitation in the southwest, southeast and
central parts of the country since end-June, allegedly caused
by the early effects of the �El Ni�o�, has negatively
affected the 1997 first season crops, currently in the
ground. A detailed assessment of damage has not yet been
made. The output of maize, the main cereal, is expected to
decrease from last year�s 1.1 million tons to a below-
average 1 million tons as a result of damage incurred.
Production of sorghum is expected to remain close to a below-
average 47 000 tons. The paddy crop is anticipated to be
slightly below-average.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1997/98 (July/June) are
expected to decrease slightly from the previous year receipts
of 280 000 tons. Maize imports are forecast to increase from
290 000 tons to 380 000 tons, reflecting the growing domestic
demand and the need to cover the loss in production. Rice
imports in 1997 (January/December) should remain close to
1996 receipts of 35 000 tons.
Harvesting of the 1997 first season coarse grain, paddy and
bean crops is still underway in some parts of the country.
Planting was significantly delayed because of the long
drought which affected the country, particularly in the
northwest, as well as the Central Plateau and parts of the
north east and Grand�Anse in the south west, for most of the
first half of the year. The outlook is poor and early
predictions indicate that maize output is likely to decline
from last year�s average 210 000 tons to about 130 000 tons.
Paddy production should decline to some 55 000 to 60 000 tons
from about 80 000 tons collected in 1996. The bean crop is
forecast to be about 45 000 tons.
Harvesting of the 1997/98 first season maize and bean crops
is about to start. The early arrival of the dry warm period,
called �la canicula�, is attributed to �El Ni�o� and has had
some negative effect on the developing grain crops and
pastures in some areas of the south. Important localized crop
losses are reported in the depressed Choluteca and Valle
regions, and the zones around Francisco Moraz�n, El Para�so
and La Paz. A detailed assessment of the losses incurred had
not yet been made. The government has initiated a series of
measures to cope with the impact of the phenomenon, among
them the coordinated effort with the private industry for the
construction of wells and water reservoirs. Production of
maize, the main cereal, is forecast so far to remain close to
last year�s low output.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1997/98 (July/June) should
increase from 175 000 tons in the previous year to about
195 000 tons, largely in line with population growth. Maize
imports are also expected to increase from the relatively
high level of 145 000 tons to 175 000 tons, reflecting the
steady domestic demand and the need to cover production
losses. Rice imports in 1997 (January/December) should be
about 46 000 tons compared to 32 000 tons in 1996. This is
partly attributed to the increasing preference for higher
quality rice.
Weather conditions continue favouring planting and
development of the 1997 maize crop across the main growing
regions of the southern plateau and eastern belt, while below-
normal rains are reported in the western belt. Overall
prospects are good and a near record 8.1 million hectares of
maize are expected to be sown, in response to an anticipated
strong expansion in domestic demand largely caused by a
generally improved national economy. Early production
forecasts point out to a bumper crop provided normal weather
persists. Significant production increases are expected in
some particular states, such as Sinaloa, where more than 2
million tons of maize should be produced. Sowing of the 1997
spring/summer sorghum crop has started. By contrast,
plantings are expected to decline from last year's record 1.6
million hectares to some 1.4 million hectares, principally as
a consequence of unattractive prices caused by a strong
import competition. Sorghum imports are anticipated to be
about 2 million tons, close to the high level of receipts of
the previous year.
The short dry summer period known as �la canicula� has
started with some anticipation, negatively affecting the
recently planted 1997/98 first season cereal and bean crops.
The phenomenon is allegedly attributed to �El Ni�o�. A
detailed assessment of damage has not yet been made, but
maize production should decrease from last year's above-
average 333 000 tons to about 280 000 to 300 000 tons. The
outlook is uncertain for the sorghum crop, while a below-
average paddy output is expected.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1997/98 (July/June) are
forecast to increase from last year's receipts of 110 000
tons to about 120 000 tons. Maize imports should increase
from 25 000 tons to some 90 000 tons, reflecting the strong
domestic demand and the need to cover crop losses. Rice
imports in 1997 (January/December) should remain similar to
1996 receipts of 41 000 tons, despite large carryover stocks.
ASIA
AFGHANISTAN* (11 August) CENTRAL AMERICA (including the
Caribbean)
COSTA RICA (2 August)SOUTH AMERICA
ARGENTINA (20 August)
Sowing of the 1997 wheat crop is delayed because of insufficient moisture in some areas of the large producing states of Cordoba and southern and central Santa Fe, but mainly because of excessive precipitation, attributed to �El Ni�o� wet winter effect, in the main producing province of Buenos Aires. Both Cordoba and Santa Fe account for about 20 percent of the total area planted to wheat. By early August, about 83 percent of intended plantings had been sown compared to 93 percent by the same time last year. Latest official forecasts point out to a likely decline in the area planted from over 7 million hectares in 1996 to some 6 to 6.25 million hectares in 1997. Assuming normal weather resumes, production could reach 14 million tons which compares to last year record 16 million tons.
Planting of the barley crop is also delayed. The total area planted should be an above-average 200 000 to 225 00 hectares.
Planting of the 1997 winter wheat and sorghum crops has been completed under dry weather which is attributed to the early effects of �El Ni�o�. Preliminary forecasts indicate that wheat production for the whole year should increase from 92 000 tons in 1996 to an average 108 000 tons. Maize output is provisionally estimated at a record 700 000 tons while a near record barley outturn is also anticipated. By contrast, the sorghum crop has been affected by dry weather and only 31 000 hectares compared to last year�s 55 000 hectares have been sown. Production of potatoes should be a satisfactory 1 million tons.
Planting of the 1998 main season cereal crops will be near completion by the end of the present year, which would coincide with the expected strongest impact of �El Ni�o� and therefore the crops may be affected by forecast dry weather.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1997/98 (July/June) are expected to increase from the previous year receipts of 330 000 tons to about 375 000 tons, reflecting a continuing strong domestic demand.
Normal to abundant rains in June benefited the development of the 1997 wheat crop in the main producing regions of Southern Brazil. Harvesting is about to start and output is provisionally forecast at 2.9 million tons, which compares to 3.3 million tons in 1996. The decline is mostly due to the combination of decreased plantings, caused by unattractive prices to producers, and dry weather at planting in the key producing states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, which together account for about 94 percent of total domestic production. Production in the former state is anticipated to decline from 2 million tons to 1.7 million tons while that in Rio Grande do Sul should drop to 780 000 tons from a high 1 million tons in 1996. Fieldwork has been initiated in the main producing areas for planting of the 1997/98 maize and paddy crops to be started from August and October respectively. Should forecasts of above-normal rains towards the end of the year, attributed to �El Ni�o� effect materialize, reduction of plantings is likely to occur.
Planting of the 1997/98 wheat crop has been recently completed and fieldwork has begun in preparation for sowing of the coarse grain crops. Agricultural activities had been interrupted in early June as a consequence of storm rains and flooding, attributed to �El Ni�o� effect, with serious damage to housing and infrastructure, but which also put an end to a long and severe dry spell affecting the country. The area planted to wheat is provisionally estimated at a slightly above average 420 000 hectares, a significant recovery from the 1996 drought affected level. Intended plantings of maize and oats should be above average.
Harvesting of the 1997 main season cereal crops has started under normal conditions. Early forecasts indicate that aggregate cereal output should be about 3.4 million tons, compared to last year 3.3 million tons, but nevertheless below the last 5-year average. Maize output is expected to be an average 1.1 million tons, but sorghum production is anticipated to decline from a below-average 540 000 tons in 1996 to some 500 000 tons. The paddy crop, by contrast, should be about 1.7 million tons, some 5 percent up from the previous year and about average.
Maize imports in marketing year 1997/98 (January/December) are anticipated to be close to last year 1.1 million tons. About 80 000 tons of rice should be imported in order to cover the strong domestic demand.
Heavy rains and flooding in early July, attributed to �El Ni�o� effects, affected the paddy, banana and sugar crops in some parts of the coastal areas of the country. Similar threatening effects are forecast towards the end of the year. In response, the Government has allocated the necessary funds that will allow for the construction of some infrastructure projects to help mitigate the eventual impact of the phenomenon. Harvesting of the 1997 main season cereal and potato crops is well advanced. Latest forecasts indicate that a near record 650 000 tons of maize, the main crop, should be gathered. An above-average 50 000 tons of barley are anticipated. The modest wheat crop, mostly grown in the highlands, should also be satisfactory. The output of paddy is provisionally forecast at about 1.28 million tons which compares to last year 1.19 million tons and a 700 000 tons average for the last 5 years.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1997 (January/December) should be similar to last year receipts of 485 000 tons. Maize imports should decrease from 100 000 tons to some 60 000 tons while some 30 000 tons of barley are forecast, similar to 1996.
The Government has declared a state of emergency in 9 of the 24 departments of the country in order to adopt the necessary measures in anticipation of �El Ni�o� effects which are forecast for the second half of the year. The strongest impact is expected, however, between December and March next year. Floods are forecast in the northern parts, while dry conditions are expected in the south. Allocated funds will be used to improve the agricultural sector with the repair of irrigation channels, strengthening of bridges and other projects, particularly in the northern department of Piura, one of the worst affected areas by �El Ni�o� in the past. Harvesting of the 1997 cereal crop is underway. Aggregate cereal output is provisionally forecast at 2.3 million tons, slightly below last year record. Small declines are expected from all cereals, except maize, which should be at a record level and thus compensate for the overall anticipated reduction.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1997 (January/ December) should be about 1.2 million tons, similar to 1996 high level of imports. Maize imports are provisionally forecast at 750 000 tons while those of barley should be about 70 000 tons.
Normal rains keep benefiting planting of the 1997/98 wheat crop. Intended plantings are provisionally forecast at a near record 250 000 hectares, as farmers are attracted by anticipated increasing exports. Fieldwork is underway in preparation of planting of the coarse grain and the important paddy crops, which is due to start from September. An above- average 280 000 hectares are expected to be sown as a whole. Barley plantings are forecast at record level.
Torrential rains and flooding in July have affected planting of the coarse grains and other foodcrops, currently underway. Tentative forecasts point out to an increase in maize production from last year's above average 1 million tons to 1.5 million tons. This reflects expanded plantings mainly attributed to the strong demand from the animal feed industry. The output of sorghum, by contrast, is estimated at a poor 250 000 tons which compares to last year's average crop of 436 000 tons. This is principally the result of the large volume of low priced imports which have caused serious farmers troubles and civilian unrest in some of the growing areas of the country. Harvesting of the paddy output has been completed and an above-average outturn of about 640 000 tons has been collected.
COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES
Severe localized rain and hail storms in June caused significant damage to infrastructure and some damage to crops.
In 1996 a further 16 000 hectares of land was leased by the state to farmers. In response to good price incentives (the price of imported wheat has fluctuated at around U.S.$ 220- 260 per ton throughout the year), and more development assistance to the agricultural sector, (including short term production credit), the area sown to grains for harvest in 1997 expanded by 9 percent to 201 000 hectares. That sown to winter grains, mainly wheat, rose to 104 000 hectares and spring grain plantings also increased. However, poor weather in the early spring and localized crop damage in the summer are expected to result in lower yields than in 1996. Official expectations are that the 1997 harvest of cereals and pulses may not equal the good 1996 harvest of 328 000 tons.
The wheat/bread distribution chain has been (largely) privatized. The Government has retained control over a number of flour mills and subsidized bread (U.S.$ 0.36 per kg, three- quarters of the market price) is available for eligible populations at state outlets. In 1997/98 the domestic cereal utilization is estimated at about 635 000 tons, including 440 000 tons for direct human consumption and the balance for seed, feed and other uses. Provided the 1997 cereal harvest approaches 295 000 tons, the cereal import requirement is estimated at 340 000 tons. The commercial import capacity has increased following price liberalization and the need for programme food aid has diminished. In 1997/98 the food aid requirement could fall to 60 000 tons, compared to 105 000 tons delivered in 1996/97. Against this requirement 39 000 tons have already been pledged.
After falling very steeply in 1991-1993, GDP has grown slowly but steadily since 1994. Not all people have benefited from the reform process, least of all those populations living in temporary accommodation since the 1988 earthquake, single- parent households and other vulnerable groups including elderly pensioners, refugees and individuals living in state institutions. The Government estimates that 400 000 people (out of a resident population of about 3 million) remain vulnerable. However, the outstanding humanitarian needs are no longer considered to constitute an emergency situation.
Some 300 000 people continue to be in need of ongoing targeted food assistance. Of these WFP is targeting 220 000 vulnerable persons, including refugees and IDPs, with supplementary rations of basic food commodities as part of the on-going relief aid and Food-For-Work programme. WFP requirements to mid-1998 are 20 000 tons and the uncovered balance stands at 16 500 tons, valued at approximately U.S.$ 7.7 million. As the pipeline for relief food is only secure until September, donors are urgently requested for additional support.
The country has requested international donor assistance to combat the effect of floods in July which caused loss of life, destroyed 7 000 homes and did substantial damage to infrastructure, including the power grid, roads and bridges and crops. The government has estimated that as a result of the floods, crops were partially or totally damaged on 15 percent of the grain area and 1 percent of the cotton area. Other crops have also suffered damage. In addition, average crop yields are expected to remain low due to shortages of improved seed, machinery and spare parts, little fertilizer application and the deterioration of the irrigation infrastructure. Other disincentives to production include the slow pace of land privatization and the irregular payment of the members of the state farms. Nevertheless, the area sown to cereals for harvest in 1997 increased by 80 000 hectares or 13 percent. By 8 August, 1 million tons of wheat and barley had been harvested, 33 000 tons more than at the corresponding time last year. Indications are that output may be somewhat larger than last year when official data indicate that almost 1 million tons were harvested and actual production was about 10 percent higher than officially registered as output from state farm land is diverted for private use.
Privatization of the State Bread Corporation and liberalization of the wheat/bread production and distribution has led to a sharp increase in commercial imports of cereals by the private trade. In the first four months of 1997 commercial imports of flour have doubled in respect of the same period in 1996. In this period, some 123 000 tons were imported commercially, by the private trade, in addition to about 75 000 tons of wheat. In 1997/98 the cereal import requirement is estimated at less than 535 000 tons of cereals, mainly wheat. The bulk of this will be imported commercially but the vulnerable populations will continue to require targeted relief.
At present, WFP assists 155 000 persons, mainly internally displaced people accommodated in public buildings and camps, with supplementary food rations. The WFP relief food pipeline is covered until early 1998 and WFP�s outstanding needs to mid 1998 are 5,000 tons of food valued at U.S. $ 2.7 million.
The outlook for the 1997 grain (cereal and pulse) harvest has deteriorated somewhat but remain overall satisfactory. Heavy rains and high winds in June have caused loss of life, considerable damage to infrastructure and localized damage to crops on 70 000 hectares. On the positive side, the area sown to winter and spring grains has increased marginally. Growing conditions until late June have been mostly beneficial with rainy weather providing good moisture reserves for spring crop development but drier weather is now urgently needed to facilitate the harvest. The availability of fertilizer and other agro-chemicals, although better than last year, continues to constrain yields. On the negative side, harvesting losses could increase this year as grain has been flattened and the availability of operational harvesting machinery remains a major constraint. Until further information becomes available, FAO continues to forecast the 1997 grain harvest at about 6.3 million tons, compared to 6 million tons last year.
A bumper cereal harvest is expected, despite some crop damage by heavy rains in June. The availability of seed, fertilizer and micro-credit for producers has improved this year and liberalization of the grain/bread production and distribution chain have provided good incentives to increase production. Official information on the areas sown (and cereal production in 1996) is very conflicting but there is agreement that the area sown to wheat has increased sharply. Relative prices have encouraged farmers to plant wheat at the expense of fruit and vines. The area ploughed in the winter for sowing to grain increased by at least 50 000 hectares and growing conditions for winter crops have been significantly better than last year. Early official forecasts indicate that the 1997 harvest of winter grains (mainly wheat) reached 400 000 tons, largely surpassing last year�s record of 177 000 tons. Output of maize is also expected to increase.
The 1997 wheat harvest is expected to cover over 50 percent of domestic demand, pointing to a sharp reduction in imports of cereals in 1997/98. Food aid pledges for 1997/98 amount to just over 100 000 tons and the balance, estimated at 300 000 tons, is expected to be imported commercially.
GDP and agricultural production is recovering, after very sharp falls in the early nineties, but the processing infrastructure remains a major bottleneck to expansion. Unemployment remains high and there continues to be a need for food aid for targeted distribution to the most vulnerable populations, including refugees and internally displaced. WFP's target group for relief assistance has been reduced from 300 000 to 120 000 beneficiaries, with a further 50 000 people expected to benefit from Food-for-Work activities. WFP's food pipeline is only secured until mid-October and an additional 12 000 tons (approximately U.S.$ 5.3 million) will be needed to permit a continuation of food distributions to mid-1998.
The harvest outlook is unclear largely due to a shortage of credit. Recently privatized farms are unable to obtain credit from banks and government directives to the oil industry to supply farmers with fuel on credit are being challenged. As a result the spring crop area declined to 14.5 million hectares. The aggregate area sown to grains and pulses for harvest in 1997 has fallen by 1.6 million hectares to 15.5 million hectares and is well short of the targeted 17 million hectares. The area sown to wheat fell to 11.4 million hectares from 12.2 million in 1996. Yield expectations for the minor winter wheat crops are satisfactory and spring crops have, on the whole, benefited from timely rains. The outcome of spring plantings will depend crucially on weather in the months to come but also on the timely availability of fuel and machinery for harvesting. Even with better weather and yields than last year, the grain production target of 14 million tons may not be met in view of the reduced areas sown and the financial problems on many farms. Current indications point to a cereal harvest close to last year�s 12.5 million tons estimated by FAO.
The 1996 grain harvest is officially reported to be 11.6 million tons but is unofficially estimated to be up to 3 million tons higher, as farmers seek to maximize earnings in cash or kind. The country is estimated to have exported about 3 million tons of cereals in 1996/97 and is expected to remain an exporter also in the coming year.
Harvesting of the winter wheat crop is underway and another good harvest, larger than last year�s 1.4 million tons, is expected. The area sown to winter grain increased by 14 percent to 370 000 hectares and growing conditions have been mostly satisfactory this year even if shortages of inputs and credits, and inadequate crop rotation are likely to keep yields below potential on small farms.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory but living standards have fallen sharply since 1991. Although the economy is beginning to recover from the transition shocks, poverty remains widespread due to under-employment and low incomes. The country has become self sufficient in cereals.
Growing conditions have favoured the 1997 crops but drier weather is now needed to bring in the winter wheat harvest. The 1997 cereal and pulse harvest is expected to be markedly better than last year�s drought reduced level of 1.8 million tons. However, farm indebtedness limits the resources which can be allocated to inputs and the production target of 2.9 million tons from 850 000 hectares may not be achieved. The late spring and shortages of liquidity and fuel delayed winter grain plantings, likely reducing the area sown but yields are expected to be markedly better than last year. The spring maize crop has benefited from good moisture conditions. FAO provisionally estimates the 1997 grain harvest at about 2.5 million tons
Early harvest returns point to a larger grain harvest than in 1996 but harvest progress is being impeded by persistent rains and fuel shortages. The condition of the standing crop is good and official forecasts for the harvest range from 70 to 80 million tons. However, the final result will depend crucially on weather conditions until the completion of the harvest, the availability of fuel and operational machinery and the timeliness of the harvesting activities. Although farm credit has been extremely limited this year, most farms have managed to plant grains, at the expense of other, less remunerative crops. Additional credit is to be made available via the commercial banking system to facilitate the harvesting operations. However, over 70 percent of farms are indebted and some may not be eligible for this credit. In addition, a number of powerful industries are reported to be investing in agricultural production to ensure food supplies for employees or for barter transactions.
The aggregate area sown to crops decreased by 4 percent to 95.7 million hectares but that sown to grains fell by only 0.4 million hectares or 1 percent in response to remunerative prices and good demand for foodgrains. The area sown to wheat remained stable at 25.7 million hectares while that sown to feedgrains continued to decline in response to further reductions in animal inventories and poor demand for feedgrains despite the small harvest last year. Growing conditions have been good this year in most major producing areas although crops in Eastern Siberia and Altay Krai have suffered some moisture stress and yields here are expected to be less than last year. Application of fertilizer and pesticides have increased, but remain low. Although soil exhaustion after successive years of inadequate fertilization and shortages of liquidity are expected to keep yields low, early harvest returns point to a crop which could be significantly larger and of better quality than that harvested last year. The 1996 harvest is officially estimated at only 69.3 million tons but was probably at least 10 percent higher. Barring persistent rains during the harvest period and reflecting good yield expectations, FAO�s forecast of the 1997 cereal and pulse harvest is 77 million tons, about 1 million tons larger than estimated output in 1996. Production of wheat is forecast to rise to 40 million tons from 38.5 million tons last year, in response to better yield expectations for both winter and spring crops. Production of coarse grains could be slightly higher than last year�s level of 34 million tons, as better yields offset the reduction in the area sown. Paddy production, under pressure from cheaper imports, is expected to decline further to 340 000 tons and output of pulses could rise to around 2 million tons in response to better yields. However, the final result will depend crucially on weather conditions until the completion of the harvest.
Demand for cereals has fallen sharply in recent years due to a sharp reduction in animal numbers, increased use of grass fodder and increased imports of livestock products in lieu of feedgrains. In 1996/97, net cereal imports are estimated to have declined to about 1.3 million tons, mainly wheat and barley sourced from Kazakhstan and the Ukraine. In 1997/98 cereal trade is not expected to be larger.
WFP is completing the provision of supplementary food assistance to some 90 000 displaced persons in areas surrounding Chechnya. WFP operations will be phased out by September 1997.
A very good harvest is expected this year in response to increased areas sown to wheat, good growing conditions and somewhat better availability of inputs provided through assistance programmes. The harvest is underway. Reflecting very varied farming conditions, the yield of winter wheat on farms supplied with inputs, range from 5 tons per hectare on good irrigated land and 0.9 tons per hectare on saline, poor soils. Given that an increasing amount of irrigated land is being diverted from cotton to wheat, and that the aggregate area sown to grain crops is estimated to have risen, the 1997 grain harvest is tentatively forecast at 600 000 tons, compared to 400 000 tons last year.
Provided this harvest forecast materializes, the cereal import requirement in 1997/98 could fall to about 250 000 tons. Against this requirement, 35 000 tons of programme food aid have already been pledged. In addition the country will need humanitarian food aid for targeted distribution to vulnerable populations, and this requirement is expected to remain substantial in view of the rampant poverty after years of economic decline and intermittent civil strife.
Some 705 000 particularly vulnerable people continue to need targeted humanitarian assistance. These include populations displaced as a result of civil strife, elderly pensioners, war-widows with children, large single-parent families, orphans and the disabled/invalids. WFP provides emergency assistance to 485 000 vulnerable persons while other agencies assist 220 000. Some 15 000 persons also received WFP assistance under food-for-work programmes. WFP estimates that overall 1997 relief food requirement are 46 580 tons, valued at some U.S.$ 22 million, of which WFP would provide about 29 000 tons with a value of U.S.$ 16 million. The remaining quantities are expected to be provided by NGOs under their existing programmes. WFP will continue to coordinate activities with these organizations to ensure that there is no overlap and to maximize coverage of the affected population.
The winter grain harvest (mainly wheat and some barley) is nearing completion and output is officially reported to be 640 000 tons. This is substantially larger than last year�s poor output of 400 000 tons in response to a reduction in the marginally-irrigated areas sown to wheat and higher (if still unremunerative) farm prices. The minor spring crop (maize and rice) could bring aggregate output up to about 750 000 tons, but nevertheless this remains well below average. Ambitious targets to achieve self sufficiency in cereals are proving unrealistic given the shortage of arable land, the shortage of fertilizers and inputs, the low producer prices which, coupled with poor cultivation techniques and low yields, offer poor incentives to farmers to tend the crop. The country has adopted very gradualist approach to the reform process and only in December of 1996 (well after the winter grain planting season) some provisions were made to encourage private farmers, and the procurement price was raised to almost U.S.$ 80 per ton.
The country is well endowed with natural gas and the wheat deficit is expected to be covered by commercial imports. In 1996/97 the country has likely imported about 500 000 tons of cereals. In 1997/98 the domestic utilization of cereals is estimated at about 1.1 million tons of cereals including 650 000 tons for direct human consumption. Given a cereal harvest of about 735 000 tons (with rice in milled equivalent) the cereal import requirement in 1997/98 is estimated at around 360 000 tons, mainly wheat. Feed use of grains has come under pressure following last year�s very poor harvest and animal numbers are reported to be falling sharply.
Current crop condition and early harvest returns substantiate official forecasts of a markedly better 1997 grain harvest. Latest reports indicate that the area sown to grains has increased sharply, to 15.3 million hectares (1996: 13.2 million hectares) and, barring poor weather during the harvest, most of this area is expected to be harvested. Some 11.2 million hectares have been sown on the reorganized state farms and the balance in the private sector. Growing conditions have been good this year, with adequate moisture for both winter and spring crops in most areas. Only 650 000 hectares of the winter crop area of 7.5 million hectares needed to be resown, and 90 percent of winter grains are maturing in good or satisfactory condition. The spring grains are also developing well: 80 percent are in good condition. As a result, average crop yields are expected to be markedly better than last year and the 1997 grain (cereal and pulse) harvest is provisionally forecast to be of the order of 35-37 million tons. Output of wheat could increase to 19-20 million tons, (from an estimated 15 million tons in 1996) also reflecting the 1.2 million hectare increase in the area sown. Both the area and yield of coarse grains are expected to increase and output could approach 14-15 million tons, (1996: 10 million tons) depending on the proportion of the maize area which will be harvested for grain rather than as silage. Production of paddy and pulses is also expected to recover.
These estimates remain provisional and may have to be lowered if rains and inadequate availability of machinery, fuel and spare parts interfere with the harvesting.
Despite the disappointing harvest in 1996 and restrictions on the movement of grain after the harvest, some informed sources indicate that up to 2.6 million tons of cereals may have been exported to other CIS states or abroad (Poland). Provided the harvest forecast materializes, the cereal supply situation in 1997/98 is expected to ease considerably, pointing to a stock replenishment after last year�s drawdown, larger exports, and increased availability of animal feed.
The government has passed a law introducing import quotas and duties on agricultural produce including grains and livestock products. Import quotas may not exceed 10 percent of domestic production in the preceding year.
Despite a reduction in the irrigated area sown to grains and earlier reports of poor autumn growing conditions for rainfed winter grains, preliminary harvest reports indicate that average yields have improved. Latest official reports indicate that 1.49 million hectares were sown to these grains and that the average (bunkerweight) yield from the 1.1 million hectares harvested to date is 2.4 tons per hectare, 9 percent more than last year. Depending on the proportion of irrigated and non-irrigated land that has been harvested, current indications are that the 1997 wheat and barley output could be of the order of 3.0 -3.3 million tons and the total harvest (including spring planted maize and rice) of the order of 3.5-3.7 million tons compared to an estimated 3.4 million tons in 1996.
The country needs about 5 million tons of cereal per annum to cover the domestic cereal consumption requirement and the shortfall of 1.5 million tons is expected to be imported commercially. The controlled price of bread was increased by 42 percent to soum 20, (US $ 0.31) per 600 gram loaf in July.
Latest indications continue to point to another above-average cereal output in the Community in 1997 although the quality of many crops may be poorer than normal. FAO's latest forecast puts the EC's 1997 cereal crop as 202 million tons, down from the record crop of 208 million tons last year but still well above the average of the past 5 years. Overall plantings are estimated to have risen by about 2 percent but yields are expected to be down from last year's bumper levels. Crop potential was affected in many parts by drought conditions earlier in the season, and recent heavy rainfalls, particularly in the south of the United Kingdom and Germany, are hampering crop maturation and harvesting leading to concerns of further loss of yield and crop quality. The bulk of the reduction in this year's cereal output is in wheat, which is now forecast at about 95.5 million tons, slightly less than expected earlier and some 4 million tons down from last year. The aggregate coarse grain crop is forecast to fall only marginally to about 104 million tons from 105 million tons in 1996.
Prospects for the 1997 cereal crops remain unchanged from the last report. Cereal crop production will be well below potential but somewhat up from the previous year. Output of wheat is forecast at about 340 000 to 350 000 tons compare to just 316 000 tons in 1996. Of this amount however, only a small portion is expected to enter the domestic market with the bulk remaining in the hands of the producers for their own consumption, as animal feed, or for seed for the next crop. As a result, the country will continue to rely heavily on wheat imports in the current 1997/98 marketing year to meet its needs for its staple bread production, especially in urban areas and for upland rural populations. After difficulties meeting wheat requirements in the previous year, fulfilling wheat import needs will remain a critical issue in 1997/98. While the level of wheat and wheat flour imports through the port of Durres is reported to have increased somewhat in June, imports remained well below monthly requirements and the major flour mills are not operating. Furthermore, because of the small size of imported wheat shipments, handling costs are relatively high and this is being reflected in high consumer prices.
Early indications for the winter wheat crop to be sown this autumn point to a further recovery in planted area if farmers can realize their intentions. However, improving output will largely depend on ensuring increased availability of high quality seeds at planting time.
Agricultural production continues to recover as a result of
gradual normalization of the economic and marketing
activities coupled with better availability and lower cost of
inputs. The outlook for the 1997 wheat crop remains
favourable and aggregate output could rise by 4 percent to
328 000 tons. This is entirely due to better yields in the
SRPSKA republic while in BiH Federation, which has no
comparative advantage in wheat production, production is
expected to fall reflecting lower planting and yields. The
area sown to maize is expected to increase sharply in both
republics in response to the gradual recovery of the
livestock industry and disruption of industrial activities.
Provided normal weather conditions prevail, output of maize
is forecast to rise sharply. Production of potatoes is also
likely to continue its upwards trend.
The food security situation has improved but there remains a
large structural deficit in wheat, the major staple. In
1997/98 the wheat import requirement is tentatively forecast
at some 265 000 tons, mainly for the BiH Federation. This is
24 percent higher than in the previous year. The increase
reflects the larger consumption needs following a 10 percent
increase in the resident population and the lower forecast
output in the BiH Federation which, together, have more than
compensated the reduction in wheat consumption requirements
per caput.
WFP is targeting 1.5 million people (war-affected people,
including refugees and IDPs) with relief food distributions.
WFP food needs for this population are 46 000 tons for the
period 1 August-31 December 1997, of which the outstanding
requirement is 21 000 tons with a value of U.S.$ 11 million.
Prospects for the 1997 cereal crop have improved somewhat
over the past few weeks. Results of the winter grain harvest
so far point to higher yields than earlier expected, and the
arrival of scattered rain showers in the second half of July
improved moisture availability for developing summer crops
which had been stressed by earlier dry conditions. By 20
July, it was reported that one-third of the winter wheat crop
had been harvested with an average yield of about 3.25 tons
per hectare. It is still too early to accurately estimate the
final outcome of the wheat harvest as any deterioration of
weather conditions could affect the crops still in the
ground, and yields vary greatly from region to region.
However, it is likely that the final output of the wheat
harvest will be well above earlier expectations at from 3.5
to 4.0 million tons, which will greatly reduce, if not
completely alleviate, the need for imports in the current
marketing year.
The l997 cereal harvest could be larger than last year. The
area sown to grains has increased sharply due to the
reintegration of territories not previously accessible.
Growing conditions for the wheat crop have been mixed but
lower wheat yields have been partially offset by the 20
percent increase in the area sown to 250 000 hectares and
output is officially estimated at 884 000 tons, 19 percent
more than last year. This is adequate to cover domestic
needs. The outlook for spring grains is satisfactory to date.
The Government has also provided funding for the spring
sowing campaign, to assist state and private farmers to
purchase fuel, fertilizer and agro-chemicals.
Heavy rainfall since early July has caused severe flooding in
eastern parts of the country. It is estimated that some
130 000 hectares of agricultural land have been washed out in
the worst hit localities, and the heavy rains have led to
crop lodging and harvest delays throughout a larger area. The
latest official forecast of the 1997 cereal crop in June,
before the heavy rain and flooding, put output at nearly 7
million tons. Although, it is still too early to accurately
assess the full extent of the damage, indications are that
losses could be in the region of between 500 000 tons to 1
million tons. The Government has reported that it does not
expect any significant shortfall in the domestic market
overall, as the country has sufficient reserves to offset a
reduced harvest. However, it is reported that some
provisional measures are being made should any significant
increase in imports be required. In addition, the Government
is organizing compensation for farmers affected by the
disaster to ensure production will be maintained in the
coming year.
The area sown to cereals has declined slightly but growing
conditions have been mostly satisfactory to date and the 1997
grain harvest could reach 600 000 tons, remaining close to
last year�s good level. On the whole, soils are fairly poor
and the country has little comparative advantage in grain
production. Although some recovery in input use and the
adoption of better technologies could result in increased
productivity, this is expected to take time. Demand for food
is showing signs of recovery but excess capacity in the
livestock industry keeps demand for grain and farm incomes
low.
FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA (1
August)
Prospects for the 1997 cereal harvest are satisfactory and
output is expected to recover from the drought-reduced level
last year to around 550 000 to 600 000 tons.
Heavy rains in July have hampered wheat harvesting but
improved conditions for the developing maize crop. Although
the harvesting delays are only moderate so far, the quality
of the wheat crop is likely to be affected by the damp
conditions and the ratio of high quality bread wheat to feed
wheat is expected to be lower than normal. The latest
official forecast of the 1997 wheat output is 5 million tons,
well up from the reduced crop of 3.9 million tons in 1996.
Following the recent rains, prospects for the summer maize
crop have improved and output is now expected to at least
equal last year's good crop of 6 million tons.
The outlook is mixed. The 1997 grain crops have benefited
from favourable moisture conditions this year and good yields
can be expected from winter grains. Higher grain prices in
1995/96 and 1996/97 have increased farmers ability to auto-
finance production. Some increase in fertilizer use and
agricultural credit for viable concerns could also benefit
yields. However, the livestock industry remains in recession
and is likely to come under further pressure this year
following the extension of the Baltics Free Trade Agreement
to agricultural produce originating in the region. As retail
food prices tend to be lower in the neighbouring countries,
this could adversely affect farmers� incentives to maximize
spring grain production.
The early outlook for the 1997 grain harvest remains
satisfactory. Planting of spring grains has been completed
under good conditions and the area sown has increased. The
aggregate area sown to grains for harvest in 1997 is
officially estimated to have increased by 4 percent to 1.16
million hectares. However, crop yields in 1997 are expected
to be somewhat lower than last year. Aggregate output is
officially projected to be between 2.6 million tons and 2.8
million tons, remaining close to last year�s level. Returns
to farmers are likely to come under pressure following the
removal of the subsidy on food wheat purchased under state
determined quotas, and the substantial stocks of flour and
livestock products which have accumulated.
Heavy rains and flooding in July have delayed harvesting and
caused significant crop losses in the worst affected southern
areas. Latest estimates indicate that some 120 000 hectares
of cereals have been destroyed which, based on average yield
expected, could cut the potential 1997 harvest by some
500 000 to 1 million tons, mainly spring wheat and barley
and, to a lesser extent, rye. However, earlier potential of
the crops was pointing to another good harvest, and even
accounting for the recent losses, the latest official
forecast in August puts the 1997 cereal output at about 24.5
million tons, compared to 25 million tons in 1996. The
government has said that there should be no risk of grain
shortages in the current year as, even after the expected
losses, the aggregate 1997 cereal output would still be a
good level and a high level of reserves are currently being
held by the state's Agriculture Market Agency (ARR) and grain
wholesalers.
Prospects for the 1997 cereal crop have deteriorated somewhat
following heavy rains and flooding in early August. Latest
official forecasts put the 1997 wheat cop at 6.9 million
tons, down from the earlier anticipated 7.1 million tons.
However, if weather conditions do not improve rapidly for the
remainder of the harvest, losses could be much greater.
Nevertheless, wheat output is unlikely to fall as low as last
year�s much reduced crop of 3.1 million tons and the
country�s grain supply situation should improve somewhat in
the current marketing year.
Prospects for the 1997 cereal crop have deteriorated
following heavy rains and flooding in July. It is reported
that about 4-5 percent of the cereal crop was flooded as of
July 24 with the Trnava region in south-east Slovakia the
worst hit. Before the wet weather struck, the 1997 cereal
harvest was estimated at somewhat over 3.6 million tons, an
increase of some 10 percent over 1996. The full consequence
of the damage on average cereal yields is not yet known but
it is unlikely that the early above average levels will be
achieved and output will fall below earlier expectations.
Prospects for the 1997 cereal harvest are satisfactory and
cereal output is expected to be similar to last year's level
of about 500 000 tons.
YUGOSLAVIA, FED. REP. OF (SERBIA AND
MONTENEGRO)* (11 August)
Despite heavy rain and hailstorms in June and the first ten
days in July which slowed the harvest and reduced grain
quality, the 1997 wheat harvest is forecast at 2.8 million
tons. This is substantially larger than last year in response
to better average yields and the sharp increase in the area
sown to wheat, which increased by over 200 000 hectares to
818 000 hectares.
NORTH AMERICA
CANADA (13 August)
Prospects deteriorated somewhat for the bulk of the wheat and coarse grain crops during July and early August due to generally hot and dry conditions which have reduced moisture availability and led to premature maturation in parts. The exception is the Peace River region in northern Alberta where ample moisture has been available throughout the season. In the previously flooded Red River valley, crops need continued hot weather to make use of available moisture. Based on the latest official estimates of seeded area for the 1997 harvest, and assuming a somewhat lower yield than earlier anticipated, because of the adverse weather, wheat output in 1997 is now forecast at about 26 million tons, 15 percent down from 1996, while coarse grains output is forecast 4 percent down at 27.5 million tons.
The 1997 winter wheat harvest is virtually complete and for spring wheat the harvest is well underway. Following generally favourable conditions for the winter wheat harvest and spring wheat development, official estimates for wheat production have been increased significantly over the last two months. Winter wheat production is now estimated at 50.5 million tons, about 25 percent up from last year's poor crop. The forecast for spring wheat output has also been revised up marginally, to about 18.4 million tons, which would be virtually unchanged from the good crop last year despite a reduction in plantings. Prospects for the 1997 coarse grain crop have deteriorated somewhat over the past two months due to hot and dry weather in the major producing Corn Belt states. The USDA 1 August crop report put aggregate coarse grain production at 263.1 million tons. Of the total, maize is now forecast at 235.6 million tons, down from earlier projections and marginally below last year's crop despite a slight area increase. Sorghum output is now forecast at about 16 million tons, much lower than in 1996 due to a reduction in plantings. However, with the main coarse grain crops still some way off harvesting, the final outcome will still depend largely on the weather in the remainder of August through early October.