Prospects for the 1998 first season crops, to be harvested from late December, are uncertain. A three week delay in the start of the rainy season reduced plantings and left crops vulnerable to an early cessation of rainfall. Precipitation was abundant during the second half of October in western parts but remained insufficient in south-eastern areas. Above average rains in the first dekad of November in these areas improved soil moisture conditions for the crops but are likely to have been too late to avoid yield reductions, particularly in Ruyigi and Cankuso provinces.

A reduced 1998 first season crop could aggravate the already precarious food supply situation, arising from a below pre- crisis average food production in the previous season and disruption in marketing activities due to the embargo from neighbouring countries. Prices of food continue to be at high levels. The situation is particularly difficult for people in regroupment camps without access to land. The Government has recently announced a programme to close all camps, requiring those housed there to return home. It is reported that the nutrition situation continues to be alarming in several areas, particularly in prefectures affected by insecurity, which hampers relief interventions by international agencies, and in several sites for displaced populations.

Increasingly violent incidents were reported during October in the provinces of Cibitoke, Bubanza, Rural Bujumbura, Bururi and Makamba.