The delay in monsoon rains in the country is being attributed to the El Niño weather phenomenon, the strongest this century. The country is in the midst of its most serious drought in decades and rainfall is urgently needed not only for crops but also to extinguish extensive bush and forest fires, which have been exacerbated by this year’s drought. According to some forecasts rains may not come before January next year, with drought conditions possibly persisting up to March. To some extent, the negative impact on production was limited by the fact that rainfall earlier in the year, which did not stop until May-June, favoured the main crop harvested in February-March and also the second crop harvested in July-August. These two crops account for some 80 percent of the country’s production of rice. However the third crop was seriously reduced and unconfirmed reports indicate that about 79 000 hectares were completely lost, whilst yields in other areas were below normal depending on the availability of irrigation. Current official projections put aggregate production at 49.1 million tons of paddy or 31.85 million tons of milled rice in 1997. At this level of production, output would be some 4 percent below last year and 2 percent below the average of the preceding five years. Nevertheless, as this projection had assumed reasonable conditions in the period September to December, the continued lack of rain in September and October suggests that production may be lower still.
There is particular concern regarding the food supply situation in large areas of central Irian Jaya which continue to be severely affected by the drought and serious food shortages. In these areas, it is estimated that, even if rainfall were to begin soon, current food stocks would be near depletion before the next harvest. Reports suggest that the impact of the drought and food shortages is most acute in the remote interior district of Jayawijaya which has a total population of 450 000. Here, the population is almost wholly dependent on the sweet potato crop. Some 90 000 people are considered most at risk to severe food shortages in Jayawijaya district alone.
The Government response to the drought is coordinated by the National Coordinating Board for Disaster Management (BAKORNAS PB), which is providing rice and fuel for transport and has mobilized the army to transport relief goods. A drought response plan has been prepared to cover an 8 month period from October 1997 to May 1998.