KENYA (27 November)
The heaviest rains in 30 years in coastal and north-eastern
areas since mid-October, associated with El Nino phenomenon,
resulted in floods and landslides causing loss of life, serious
damage to infrastructure and housing, and displacement of
population. The Government has declared the affected Coast,
North Eastern and parts of Eastern Provinces Disaster Zones.
Localized agricultural damage is also reported. However, since
most of these provinces are marginal agricultural areas, the
crop losses are not expected to have a significant impact at
national level. Several towns in the disaster areas have
remained isolated by flood waters for more than a month. Food
supplies have been exhausted and food prices have tripled,
particularly in villages along the Tana river. The Government is
distributing relief assistance to some 60 000 affected
population in these areas by helicopter and by sea, and has
launched an appeal to the international community for supplement
its efforts with food and non-food assistance. About 2 000
refugees from Somalia, South Sudan and Ethiopia from camps
around the village of Dadaab have also been displaced.
Overall, despite the localized crop losses, abundant rains
since the beginning of the 1997/98 "short rains" in the bi-modal
areas of the Western, Central and Eastern provinces favoured an
increase in the area planted to maize and pulses and benefited
crop establishment. However, the prospects for the harvest from
mid-January could deteriorate if the heavy precipitation
continue into December. The abundant rains have also benefited
pastures and livestock conditions which have not fully recovered
from the severe drought of the previous "short rains" season.
Harvest of the 1997 main "long rains" season cereal crops
continues in the main uni-modal growing areas of the Rift
Valley. Prospects have deteriorated as a result of continuous
above normal precipitation during November, which has delayed
harvesting operations and adversely affected yields. Yield
potential was earlier affected by dry spells in May and
September, notwithstanding the overall abundant precipitation
during the growing season, while a late start of the rainy
season resulted in plantings reductions of the main maize crop.
Production forecasts have been revised downward and point to a
maize crop of 1.9 million tons, around the reduced crop of
1996. Production of wheat is forecast at 320 000 tons, below the
good level of the previous year, with an expansion in the area
planted partially compensating for lower yields. Harvesting of
beans, mainly produced in the bi-modal areas, is completed. The
output is estimated one-third below the average level as a
result of seeds shortages. This is the second consecutive poor
harvest of beans.
As a result of the lower than expected 1997 main season cereal
production, and assuming a good secondary season crop, imports
of cereals in marketing year 1997/98 (October/September) are
expected to remain at the high level of the previous year.
Prices of food staple maize started to decline from September
reflecting record imports in marketing year 1996/97
(October/September) and the arrival of the new harvest into the
markets. However, they remain at very high levels well beyond
the reach of large sections of vulnerable population.