KENYA (27 November) The heaviest rains in 30 years in coastal and north-eastern areas since mid-October, associated with El Nino phenomenon, resulted in floods and landslides causing loss of life, serious damage to infrastructure and housing, and displacement of population. The Government has declared the affected Coast, North Eastern and parts of Eastern Provinces Disaster Zones. Localized agricultural damage is also reported. However, since most of these provinces are marginal agricultural areas, the crop losses are not expected to have a significant impact at national level. Several towns in the disaster areas have remained isolated by flood waters for more than a month. Food supplies have been exhausted and food prices have tripled, particularly in villages along the Tana river. The Government is distributing relief assistance to some 60 000 affected population in these areas by helicopter and by sea, and has launched an appeal to the international community for supplement its efforts with food and non-food assistance. About 2 000 refugees from Somalia, South Sudan and Ethiopia from camps around the village of Dadaab have also been displaced.

Overall, despite the localized crop losses, abundant rains since the beginning of the 1997/98 "short rains" in the bi-modal areas of the Western, Central and Eastern provinces favoured an increase in the area planted to maize and pulses and benefited crop establishment. However, the prospects for the harvest from mid-January could deteriorate if the heavy precipitation continue into December. The abundant rains have also benefited pastures and livestock conditions which have not fully recovered from the severe drought of the previous "short rains" season.

Harvest of the 1997 main "long rains" season cereal crops continues in the main uni-modal growing areas of the Rift Valley. Prospects have deteriorated as a result of continuous above normal precipitation during November, which has delayed harvesting operations and adversely affected yields. Yield potential was earlier affected by dry spells in May and September, notwithstanding the overall abundant precipitation during the growing season, while a late start of the rainy season resulted in plantings reductions of the main maize crop. Production forecasts have been revised downward and point to a maize crop of 1.9 million tons, around the reduced crop of 1996. Production of wheat is forecast at 320 000 tons, below the good level of the previous year, with an expansion in the area planted partially compensating for lower yields. Harvesting of beans, mainly produced in the bi-modal areas, is completed. The output is estimated one-third below the average level as a result of seeds shortages. This is the second consecutive poor harvest of beans.

As a result of the lower than expected 1997 main season cereal production, and assuming a good secondary season crop, imports of cereals in marketing year 1997/98 (October/September) are expected to remain at the high level of the previous year.

Prices of food staple maize started to decline from September reflecting record imports in marketing year 1996/97 (October/September) and the arrival of the new harvest into the markets. However, they remain at very high levels well beyond the reach of large sections of vulnerable population.