Normal rains resumed in October benefiting developing 1997/98 second season (“postrera”) cereal and bean crops currently being harvested. However, prospects of recovery from losses incurred by El Niño-related effects to the first season maize crop are poor. Production increases in the non-affected areas have not been sufficient because of low yields and the anticipated output from the second season is not enough either. Maize output, therefore, is expected to fall from an earlier above-average estimate to a near -average level. By contrast, sorghum and bean production are expected to be satisfactory as the bulk of the output is collected from the second season crops.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1997/98 (July/June) are forecast to increase from the previous year’s receipts of 110 000 tons to some 120 000 tons. Maize imports are anticipated to increase significantly to cover the deficit in production and meet the strong domestic demand. Rice imports in 1998 (January/December) should remain close to 1996 level.