Recent reports indicate that up to 36 provinces are considered highly vulnerable to El Niņo related weather anomalies, particularly prolonged drought, which are forecast to last till next April. Provinces considered particularly vulnerable include South Cotabato, Miasmic Oriental and parts of Zamboanga del Sur in Mindanao. As a result of forecast drought, rice and maize production are expected to drop in the first quarter of 1998. Current official projections point to a drop in the output of unmilled rice by 1.7 percent to 2.52 million tons in the first quarter of 1998 (January to March) compared to 2.56 million tons this year. Similarly, maize production is expected to fall to 1.021 million tons in the first quarter from 1.023 this year. Paddy output in the third quarter this year dropped by 15.4 percent to 1.79 million tons from 2.117 million tons in 1996. Overall maize output this year is expected to increase marginally to around 4.3 million tons, while the official estimate of paddy is put at 11.36 million tons compared to an earlier forecast of 11.9 million tons.
The Department of Agriculture has been distributing higher yielding rice seeds and fertilizers to farmers in recent months as part of its programme to improve productivity, which aims to increase rice production to 12 to 12.5 million tons in 1998
Imports of rice and maize in 1998 are likely to increase due to expected weather-related declines in production and continued growth in population and consumption. The National Food Authority (NFA) has already placed orders for 350 000 tons of rice from Vietnam, China, Cambodia and Thailand . Imports are expected to start arriving in January. The NFA also has authority to import up to 650 000 tons of rice to maintain stocks. In 1996 the NFA imported 893 000 tons of rice. So far this year, the country has imported 940 000 tons of maize, mostly for animal feed, compared to 407 000 tons in 1996.