Persistently heavy rains since mid-October caused serious floods, at least 1 500 deaths and extensive damage to infrastructure and property. Large numbers of people have been displaced. Important crop and livestock losses in agricultural areas are also reported, particularly in southern areas along the Juba and Shebelle rivers.
The 1997/98 “Deyr” crops, which normally account for some 20 percent of annual cereal production, were planted just before the heavy rains started. Following torrential precipitation over a month, the maize and sorghum crops have been adversely affected in the regions of Lower and Middle Juba, Lower and Middle Shebelle, but also in the sorghum belt area of Bay, Bakool and Hiraan regions, and in growing areas of the North- west. A detailed assessment of agricultural losses is not yet possible, but preliminary estimates indicate that at least half of the cereal crop in southern growing areas have suffered serious flood damage. Prospects for the harvest from January are, therefore, poor and 1997/98 “Deyr” cereal production is anticipated to be reduced for the fourth consecutive time. Household food reserves, seeds and agricultural inputs have also been destroyed by the floods. Losses of livestock are provisionally estimated at 21 000 head.
The flood has exacerbated an already precarious food supply situation in several parts of the country, resulting from a succession of bad harvests and the disruption of agricultural and marketing activities due to persistent civil conflict and insecurity. Prices of basic food, which were already at high levels, have increased three-fold since the floods started in affected areas in the south. The situation is particularly critical along the Juba river, from Jamame to Buale, where serious food shortages have developed as towns are isolated by flood waters.
For the country as a whole, the deterioration of crop prospects for the 1997/98 “Deyr” crop will result in a much larger deficit of food grains than previously estimated. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission, fielded in August this year, estimated an import requirement of 247 000 tons of cereals for the 1997/98 marketing year (September/August) of which 215 000 tons were expected to be covered commercially and 32 000 tons by food aid. This estimate was based on the assumption of a normal secondary “Deyr” crop of about 95 000 tons. With current indications pointing to another reduced “Deyr” crop, the cereal deficit has been revised to 280 000 tons and the food aid requirement to 60 000 tons.
Food and non-food relief is currently being provided to around 112 000 people but persistently bad weather and insecurity are hampering relief operations. Further food aid pledges and assistance with transport for relief distributions, mainly by helicopters and boats, are also urgently required.