Current indications are that the areas sown to winter grains (mainly wheat) has increased slightly to about 500 000 hectares. The early outlook is satisfactory. Reforms introduced in 1996/97 - including land privatization and the availability of production credit - led to a sharp recovery in grain production in 1997 (730 000 tonnes) and could result in better yields also in 1998. However, even if, as planned, the availability of nitrogenous fertilizer improves, the target output, 1.2 million tonnes of grains is unlikely to be achieved. Even with favourable weather conditions, average yields are likely to remain low, due to the use of poor quality seed, inadequate use of inputs, equipment shortages and the poor state of the irrigation system.
The food supply situation remains mixed and precarious in disadvantaged areas. People in depressed industrial areas and infertile rural areas are experiencing difficulties. Returns for farmers remain low and for a large part of the population, lack of purchasing power limits access to a varied diet and higher priced foods.
Annual domestic cereal utilization has decreased to about 1.2 million tonnes. Cereal stocks were drawn down in 1996/97 and are to be replenished this year. Against the total requirement of 1.42 million tonnes, domestic availability (stocks and production of cereals) are estimated at 852 000 tonnes. Allowing for some stock replenishment this leaves an import requirement of nearly 560 000 tonnes for 1997/98. This is expected to be covered commercially, mainly in Kazakhstan and the Ukraine but about 100 000 tonnes could be imported from outside the CIS.