| Area: | 976 680 sq.km |
| Climate: | Northern coastal area and lowlands in the south and the east are semi-arid to arid; the rest of the country has a highland rainy climate with mild winter. |
| Population: | 57.820 million (1998 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: U.S.$ 100 (1995) |
| Specific characteristics of the country: | Low-income food-deficit country |
| Logistics: | Land-locked country, roads inadequate |
| Major foodcrops: | Maize, teff, barley, sorghum, wheat, pulses, enset (false banana) |
| Marketing year: | January/December; Lean season: August-November |
| Share of cereals in total calorie intake: | 69 percent |
CURRENT SITUATION
Unseasonal rains in January allowed early planting of the secondary "belg" season, normally scheduled for February/March. These rains also benefited off-season crop production and pastures conditions.
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited Ethiopia from 2 November to 2 December 1997 forecasts a 1997 Meher harvest of 8 786 000 tonnes of cereals and pulses, which is one-quarter below last year’s Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) post-harvest estimates. The reduction in production is primarily a result of poor Belg rains followed by late, low and erratic rainfall during the Meher growing season, particularly in lowland areas, exacerbated by unusually heavy rains at harvest time. A 20 percent reduction in fertilizer use in key producing areas due to the removal of subsidy and credit restrictions on slow repayers was another factor contributing to the decrease. Army-worm, the main migratory pest this year was effectively controlled by MoA-supported spraying teams. Non-migratory pests and diseases, though present, were not considered to be beyond the usual levels of tolerance in most zones. Livestock production was threatened by mid-main season droughts in all agro-pastoralist areas, causing a 60-70 percent fall in prices, premature migrations and increased morbidity and mortality. Fortunately, the late rains reversed the situation in October and November and a normal state now prevails. On the basis of the above Meher production estimate and a forecast Belg harvest in 1998 of 320 000 tonnes of cereals and pulses, the Mission estimates a total grains import requirement of 530 000 tonnes in 1998. This includes 420 000 tonnes of relief food aid required for 5.3 million rural people affected by a poor harvest and structural poverty. The remaining deficit of 110 000 tonnes is expected to be covered by commercial imports. Wholesale prices for all major cereals at the beginning of the 1997 Meher harvest were substantially above last year's levels, with national averages ranging from 13 percent for teff to 53 percent for maize. Prices declined somewhat in January but remained at high levels reflecting tighter supplies in comparison to last year.
|
Wheat |
Rice |
Coarse grains |
Total |
|
|
Normal Production |
950 |
- |
5 600 |
6 550 |
|
Normal Imports |
700 |
5 |
75 |
780 |
|
of which: Structural food aid |
380 |
5 |
65 |
450 |
|
1998 Domestic Availability |
1 764 |
3 |
6 759 |
8 526 |
|
1997 Production (rice in paddy terms) |
1 714 |
4 |
6 667 |
8 385 |
|
1997 Production (rice in milled terms) |
1 714 |
3 |
6 667 |
8 384 |
|
Possible stock drawdown |
50 |
- |
92 |
142 |
|
1998 Utilization |
2 184 |
18 |
6 854 |
9 056 |
|
Food Use |
1 893 |
18 |
5 233 |
7 234 |
|
of which: local purchase requirement |
- |
- |
50 |
50 |
|
Non-food use |
291 |
- |
1 381 |
1 672 |
|
Exports or Re-exports |
- |
- |
150 |
150 |
|
1998 Import Requirement |
420 |
15 |
95 |
530 |
|
Anticipated commercial imports |
- |
15 |
95 |
110 |
|
Food aid needs |
420 |
- |
- |
420 |
|
Current Aid Position | ||||
|
Food aid pledges |
231 |
- |
56 |
287 |
|
of which: Delivered |
40 |
- |
1 |
41 |
|
Donor-financed local purchases |
- |
- |
14 |
14 |
|
Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/year) |
33 |
0 |
91 |
124 |
|
Indexes | ||||
|
1997 production as % of normal: |
128 |
|||
|
1998 import requirement as % of normal: |
68 |
|||
|
1998 food aid requirement as % of normal: |
93 |
