| Area: | 569 000 sq.km |
| Climate: | North-east is semi-arid to arid; mountainous central and south-western areas have two rainy seasons (March-May and November December). |
| Population: | 30.19 million (1998 estimate), GNP per caput U.S.$ 280 (1995) |
| Specific characteristics of the country: | Low-income food-deficit country; regular importer and occasional exporter of grain. |
| Logistics: | Good port (Mombasa) and extensive rail and road network. Gateway to Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda |
| Major foodcrops: | Maize, wheat, pulses, roots and tubers |
| Marketing year: | October/September |
| Lean season: | June-July |
| Share of cereals in total calorie intake: | 56 percent |
CURRENT SITUATION
Harvesting of the 1997/98 secondary "short rains" crop season is well advanced. Heavy rains during the season, from November to February, resulted in serious floods, causing loss of life, extensive damage to infrastructure and housing, left many villages isolated and displaced large sections of the local population. The areas worst affected include the Coast Province, North Eastern Province and parts of the Eastern Province. These areas have been declared a Disaster Zone by the Government, which has appealed for international assistance to cope with the emergency. The cereal output of this year "short rains" is anticipated to be reduced. Preliminary official estimates indicate a below-average maize production of 387 000 tons, despite an increase of 30 percent in the area planted.
The rains also adversely affected the 1997/98 maize crop of the main season at harvest time. This further reduced yields already affected by a dry spell at the critical grain-filling stage. In aggregate, the 1997/98 maize production is now estimated at 2.4 million tonnes, above the reduced level of 1996/97 but just below the average of the past five years. Wheat were also affected by heavy rains at harvest while the bean crop was sharply reduced due to both adverse weather and lack of seed. In consequence, the food supply situation is anticipated to be tight in the months ahead. Maize import requirements, expected to be covered mostly commercially, are estimated at 700 000 tonnes. This is, however, lower than in the previous year when maize imports reached 1 million tonnes. Total cereal imports, including wheat and rice in which the country has a structural deficit, in 1997/98 (October/September) are provisionally forecast at 1.1 million tonnes.
While the abundant rains of the past months improved pastures for livestock, an outbreak of Rift Valley Fever in October and a complex of other diseases has resulted in the loss of thousands of cattle, sheep, goats and camels.
|
Wheat |
Rice |
Coarse grains |
Total |
|
|
Normal Production |
241 |
49 |
2 587 |
2 877 |
|
Normal Imports |
311 |
57 |
312 |
680 |
|
of which: Structural food aid |
74 |
- |
- |
74 |
|
1997/98 Domestic Availability |
470 |
39 |
2 774 |
3 283 |
|
1997 Production (rice in paddy terms) |
320 |
60 |
2 674 |
3 054 |
|
1997 Production (rice in milled terms) |
320 |
39 |
2 674 |
3 033 |
|
Possible stock drawdown |
150 |
- |
100 |
250 |
|
1997/98 Utilization |
809 |
129 |
3 474 |
4 412 |
|
Food Use |
777 |
79 |
3 062 |
3 918 |
|
of which: local purchase requirement |
- |
- |
6 |
6 |
|
Non-food use |
32 |
50 |
412 |
494 |
|
1997/98 Import Requirement |
339 |
90 |
700 |
1 129 |
|
Anticipated commercial imports |
289 |
90 |
650 |
1 029 |
|
Food aid needs |
50 |
- |
50 |
100 |
|
Current Aid Position | ||||
|
Food aid pledges |
14 |
- |
39 |
53 |
|
of which: Delivered |
12 |
- |
22 |
34 |
|
Donor-financed purchases |
- |
- |
6 |
6 |
|
of which: for local use |
- |
- |
6 |
6 |
|
for export |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/year) |
26 |
3 |
101 |
130 |
|
Indexes | ||||
|
1997 production as % of normal: |
106 |
|||
|
1997/98 import requirement as % of normal: |
166 |
|||
|
1997/98 food aid requirement as % of normal: |
135 |
