FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report - March 1998:

TANZANIA

CURRENT SITUATION

Harvest of the 1997/98 secondary "Vuli"season in bi-modal northern areas is completed. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited the country in the second half of January found that in spite of the widespread devastation caused by floods to agriculture, infrastructure and the economy, increased rainfall had, overall, a beneficial effect on Vuli production. Although serious crop losses were sustained in low-lying clay areas and river valleys, it is estimated that increased production in higher areas and predominantly sandy loam soils, which benefited from heavy precipitation, will to some extent off-set these losses. Moreover, in the aftermath of several years of drought, farmers in most areas increased planting of security food crops such as cassava and sweet potatoes, which are expected to do well this year.

In reviewing the overall food supply situation for Tanzania for 1997/98, the mission noted that much more than normal years the food supply situation in the country is heavily influenced by transport and accessibility. In areas that have not been severely affected by transport disruptions and where markets are functioning relatively efficiently, for example Dar es Salaam, Morogoro and Arusha, the food supply situation appears reasonably stable, prices have remained on trend and have not increased abnormally in response to shortages. Indeed, in accessible markets the average domestic wholesale price of maize in the period September to December last year remained markedly below international (CIF) prices, which may have deterred the private sector from importing larger quantities of grain in spite of the official waiver on maize duties. In contrast, in areas that had a poor harvest last year and have additionally become isolated due to transport difficulties, there is serious concern over food shortages. In these areas prices have risen sharply as movement of food, and indeed other essential goods, has become highly problematic. Also at risk are vulnerable sectors of the population who have lost crops and assets and have extremely limited purchasing power to procure food.

In appreciation of this duality, the mission concludes that the immediate priority for any appeals for international assistance should be focused on transport constraints and moving food as soon as possible to areas of need rather than on injecting further quantities of relief food.

Prospects for the 1997/98 main season food crops in central and southern parts are uncertain. Heavy rains and consequent flooding from November to February hampered field activities resulting in reductions in the area planted and negatively affected crop development in low lands. Preliminary official forecast point to a decline in production of the main maize crop from the reduced level of last year.