Seasonably hot and dry conditions prevail. Prospects for recession and irrigated off-season crops are favourable. The 1997/98 aggregate cereal production is estimated at 2.4 million tonnes, which is above 1996 level and above the average for the last five years. Rice production reached a new record of 663 000 tonnes. Some Desert Locusts may be present in Adrar des Iforas and Tibemsi Valley.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Cereal surpluses will be available in most of the producing zones. Markets are well supplied and cereal prices are generally at levels much lower than those of 1996 at the same period. However, the national early warning system (SAP) has classified several arrondissements in the north and west of Tombouctou region and the arrondissement of Aourou in Kayes region as at risk of food supply difficulties following poor harvests due to unfavourable growing conditions or pest attacks. Emergency needs for the affected populations in Tombouctou area are estimated at 2 500 tonnes and at 205 tonnes in Kayes region. Several other arrondissements may also face economic difficulties. The SAP recommended the implementation of income-generating activities for the affected populations and constitution of local security stocks, notably through cereal banks. Exportable surpluses are available for commercial or food aid triangular transactions with neighbouring countries affected by deficits. However, administrative constraints, such as the official requirement for an export declaration form, may limit opportunities for cross-border trade.