Harvesting of the 1998 wheat crop is about to start. Prospects are favourable reflecting adequate water supplies and favourable temperatures in the past two months. Preliminary official forecast points to an output of 557 000 tonnes, 13 percent lower than the bumper crop of last year but still average. A decline of 15 percent in the area planted, mainly due to removal of marginal areas from wheat in irrigation schemes, will be only partially compensated by higher yields.
Output of the 1997 main season coarse grain was estimated by an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission in November/December 1997 at 4 million tonnes, a decline of 15 percent from the good crop of 1996 but still above average. Crops were negatively affected by insufficient precipitation in parts, particularly in the South. Although production is less than consumption requirements, high levels of carryover sorghum stocks as a result of a ban on exports, will fill the gap to satisfy the requirements. Prices of sorghum remain at relatively low levels reflecting abundant supplies.
Despite the overall satisfactory food supply, the situation is critical in Southern Sudan affected by civil war. The intensified conflict since January, particularly in the Bahr El Ghazal province, has resulted in fresh waves of displaced population, aggravating an already precarious food situation following the 1997 drought reduced harvest. Cereal production was estimated by the FAO/WFP Mission to be down by 45 percent on the previous year (excluding Renk). Eastern Equatoria, Lakes, Bahr El Jebel and Bahr El Ghazal are the most affected States, where the first season crop was lost due to the prolonged early drought. The Mission also estimated that some 60 to 70 per cent of the population in Eastern Equatoria, Bahr El Ghazal, Lakes, parts of Jonglei state and the transitional zones will need emergency food assistance for three to six months in 1998.
Food prices have increased sharply in the south. Widespread food shortages and increased children malnutrition are reported. About 350 000 displaced people in the Bahr El Ghazal province, including 150 000 recently displaced, are considered at risk of famine in the coming months. Distribution of food aid, which had been hampered by Government restrictions since early February, is expected to increase following permission by the Government to resume relief flights into most areas of Bahr El Ghazal. Donors are urged to increase food aid and to provide financial support for other items, particularly seeds and tools for the next cropping season, and for logistic operations.