Harvesting of the 1998 coarse grain crops, principally maize, has been disrupted in some of the main producing provinces as a consequence of the intensive rains attributed to El Niño. By end-May, about 65 percent of the area planted had been harvested compared to more than 88 percent by the same time last year. Despite the sprouting in some areas caused by the excess humidity, satisfactory yields are obtained and official forecasts point to a historically high maize output of 19.1 million tonnes. Production of sorghum is also expected to be a record high 3.9 million tonnes, and a slightly above-average paddy output is anticipated despite some damage to the crop.
Sowing of the 1998 wheat crop has started in some parts and plantings are tentatively forecast to be close to the 1997 level.
Harvesting of the 1997/98 first (main) season coarse grain crops has been completed, while planting of the winter wheat crop, mostly in the eastern department of Santa Cruz has started under abnormally dry weather conditions. Maize output has been provisionally estimated at a low 416 000 tonnes, which compares to last year's 671 000 tonnes and to the last 5-year average of about 560 000 tonnes. Barley production is estimated at 39 000 tonnes, about 41 percent below last year's output. Output of the important potato crop in the population's diet has also declined from 840 000 tonnes to 505 000 tonnes. The crops have been severely affected, particularly in the Andean highland valleys, by the extremely dry weather attributed to El Niño and substantially low yields have resulted. This implies a significant reduction of food availability for farmers in the next few months and the scarcity of seeds to reinitiate the following agricultural campaign. The Government has made an appeal to the international community for the rehabilitation of the agricultural activities in the most affected areas.
The country continues to be affected by El Niño, in the form of heavy rains and flooding in the important producing south-eastern areas, while a prolonged drought since November has severely damaged most of the crops in the North-East. About 10 million people in the latter region are seriously affected, of which 4.8 million are facing critical food supply problems. Relief operations are being conducted by the Government which have helped ameliorate the situation. Food assistance from private institutions and non-governmental organizations has also been provided. The Government has announced the allocation of funds for the rehabilitation of the area. For the country as a whole, maize production in 1998 is officially forecast to decline from the 1997 well above-average 34 million tonnes to 31.5 million tonnes. This is mainly due to crop losses incurred in the drought affected areas, compounded by farmers' decision in other parts to switch to alternative crops, attracted by higher prices. To meet a domestic demand of 36 million tonnes, a minimum of 1.5 million tonnes of maize would be required as imports. The difference would be drawn from the national stocks. A significant 1.6 million tonnes of rice imports would also be required in order to compensate for the important losses reported in the drought stricken North-East region and flooded areas of the south.
Planting of the 1998 wheat crop is underway and a 10 percent reduction in plantings from last year's average 1.5 million hectares is provisionally forecast. This is largely the result of the adverse weather that has persisted in the main growing southern areas and farmers' decision to switch to more profitable crops relative to wheat.
Planting of the 1998/99 wheat crop has started under generally normal conditions. It is reported that farmers this year are not attracted by prevailing prices and that the area planted would be close to the 1997/98 below-average level, when the crop was affected by El Niño-related intensive rains. Harvesting of the 1998 maize crop is currently underway and an average production is anticipated, a recovery from the 1997 affected crop. This is due to increased plantings and improved yields.
Normal rains have resumed since mid-April over most of the growing areas following months of abnormally dry weather in some parts and heavy rains and flooding in others caused by El Niño. The rains helped restore much needed moisture particularly in the northwestern parts and benefited planting of the 1998 first season maize and paddy crops. Fearful of losing their crops, farmers decided to wait for the definite arrival of the rains. Planting for most crops is consequently lagging behind schedule but is nevertheless expected to be completed in time. The 1998 maize output is forecast to recover from the low level reached in 1997 when the crop was severely damaged by El Niño. An average paddy production is also anticipated assuming normal weather conditions remain. By contrast, sorghum output further declined from the poor level of the previous year as the agricultural cycle for the main crop coincided with the peak impact of El Niño phenomenon.
Despite a recent significant decrease in the rains, the adverse effects of El Niño continued to be felt until mid-May along the coastal areas, particularly in the provinces of Manabi, Los Rios y Guayas, where extremely high precipitation levels were reported. Intensive rains were also reported during the first half of May in the Andean areas, particularly towards the center and south of the mountain range, and in the Amazonian region with record precipitation levels registered in some locations. Damage to housing and infrastructure, as well as to the agricultural sector, continued to increase, causing instability in the prices of some basic food items. However, no shortage of food supplies has so far been reported. About 300 000 hectares of farm land, principally in the coastal areas, have been officially declared to be severely affected by the impact of the phenomenon. An official assessment of the damage incurred to the agricultural sector has just been completed and a national plan has been formulated for the rehabilitation of the sector. An appeal for assistance has been made to the international community.
Normal rains have resumed following weeks of severe drought caused by El Niño. The area planted to the spring paddy crop, the main foodcrop, was reduced from 192 000 to 125 000 acres, resulting in an anticipated production loss of some 63 000 tonnes. Sugar production has been also affected and about 13 700 tonnes have been lost, which represent some 5 percent of the average annual production. Despite damage incurred, no food shortages have been reported so far in the affected areas, although some food prices have increased. An assessment of needs for the rehabilitation of agricultural activities is being conducted. An official appeal for international assistance is likely to be made in case the resources needed exceed the capacity of the country.
Torrential rains and flooding in May have affected several provinces, particularly in the southern parts of the country. This follows the flooding in late December when the country declared a state of emergency and launched an appeal for international assistance. About 105 000 people have now been affected by the floods in the provinces of Neembuco, Presidente Hayes, Boquerón, Alto Paraguay and around the capital. Some areas have remained isolated from the rest of the country. Damage has been incurred to the agricultural sector, particularly the peanut, cotton and sorghum crops. Output of 1998 maize crop, currently being harvested, is expected to decline from last year's record but would still remain above the average of the last five years. A new state of emergency has been declared and assistance is being received from the international community.
Normal to above-normal rains are reported in May in the northeastern areas of the country, following torrential rains and flooding in April in various parts with significant damage to housing and infrastructure and an increasing number of casualties. Landslides causing significant damage to the agricultural sector have also been reported in numerous locations. In the inland regions of the country, such as in the Amazonian rainforest areas, the indigenous population have lost large parts of their subsistence crops (cassava, maize, banana) as a consequence of the heavy floods, while in the department of Puno, the population in the highlands have suffered severe losses in their subsistence potato crops because of drought. An overall assessment of damages caused by El Niño is being conducted by the Government. In the important paddy growing fields of the northern coastal areas, the volume collected in the first three months is nearly 20 percent less than the amount collected by the same time the year before. Harvesting of the wheat and yellow maize crops is also lagging behind the results obtained in the previous year. In aggregate, cereal output is forecast to decline from 1997 above-average levels but, with the exception of paddy, should remain about average.
Normal rains have resumed in May following a severe drought due to El Niño which severely affected the important paddy crop. Imports would be required to meet the deficit in production resulting from the lower than normal yields obtained. The foreign exchange earner banana crop was equally affected. The weight of the fruit is reported to be insufficient for export.
Torrential rains and flooding due to El Niño continued to affect the country by end-April and May, seriously affecting the littoral west, the northern, northeastern and central regions of the country. The current floods are reckoned to be the biggest in the history of the country. Enormous damage to housing, rural roads, bridges and railways is reported. The Government has made an appeal for international assistance to meet immediate relief requirements. The agricultural sector has also been affected but crop losses are of a lesser magnitude. The rains negatively affected harvesting of the 1998 wheat and barley crops. Wheat output was about 505 000 tonnes, lower than expected, but still about average. Barley production was below average.
Paddy output is provisionally estimated at less than 900 000 tonnes, which compares to last year's 1.1 million tonnes.
Planting of the 1998 maize crop has started under normal weather conditions. The area planted is tentatively forecast to be close to the 1997 above-average level. Harvesting of the paddy crop has recently been completed and an average output has been collected.