FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.2, August 1998 -

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MADAGASCAR


Area: 582 000 sq.km
Climate: Eastern coast is tropical wet, the rest tropical wet-dry. Rains in October-March; tropical cyclones
Population: 15.72 million (1997 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: U.S.$ 230 (1995)
Specific characteristics of the country: Low-income food-deficit country
Logistics: Dilapidated roads and lack of spare parts and tyres
Major foodcrops: Rice, roots, tubers, maize, fruit
Marketing year: April/March; Lean season: February/March
Share of cereals in total calorie intake: 60 percent


CURRENT SITUATION

Following generally favourable weather conditions, production prospects are relatively favourable for rice and other crops currently being harvested. Output may be somewhat lower than last year’s relatively good crop of 2.5 million tonnes. Initial indications are that locusts had no significant impact on cereals. If cassava is ready for harvest (mature), the effect of locusts would be nil. However, as the infestation has now spread from the southern dry zones to the midwest and northern more fertile regions, the threat to staple crops and cattle pastures remains serious. The overall food supply situation in the country is expected to remain relatively stable during the current marketing year, including in the drought-prone south, where locust damage to crops and pastures is reported to be variable.



CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1998/99 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)


Wheat Rice Coarse grains Total
Normal Production 7 2 476 152 2 635
Normal Imports 48 53 10 111
of which: Structural food aid 13 11 10 34
1998/99 Domestic Availability 10 1 740 156 1 906
1998 Production (rice in paddy terms) 10 2 500 150 2 660
1998 Production (rice in milled terms) 10 1 700 150 1 860
Possible stock drawdown - 40 6 46
1998/99 Utilization 80 1 790 161 2 031
Food Use 79 1 780 138 1 997
of which: local purchase requirement - - - -
Non-food use 1 10 23 34
Exports or Re-exports - - - -
Possible stock build up - - - -
1998/99 Import Requirement 70 70 5 145
Anticipated commercial imports 60 50 5 115
Food aid needs 10 20 - 30
Current Aid Position



Food aid pledges 4 1 6 11
of which: Delivered 4 1 1 6
Donor-financed purchases - - - -
of which: for local use - - - -
for export - - - -
Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/year) 6 124 10 139
Indexes



1998 production as % of normal:


101
1998/99 import requirement as % of normal:


113
1998/99 food aid requirement as % of normal:


59

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