FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.2, August 1998 -

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SOUTH AFRICA


Area: 1.22 million sq.km
Climate: Sub-tropical with rains concentrated in the summer months (November-April); occasional snow in winter over higher parts of plateau and Cape ranges; an average of 120 days frost in the interior plateau
Population: 43.34 million (1997 estimate); GNP per caput U.S.$ 3 160 (1995)
Specific characteristics of the country: Normally net food exporter, notably maize
Logistics: Adequate port, rail and road facilities
Major foodcrops: Maize, wheat
Marketing year: May/April; Lean season: February-April
Share of cereals in total calorie intake: 54 percent


CURRENT SITUATION

The negative impact of El Niño has been less than earlier anticipated. The latest official estimate of maize production point to an output of 7.73 million tonnes, lower than both last year and average but slightly better than the previous estimates of the season’s outcome. In several areas, particularly in the North West Province, the late planted crop has progressed better than expected as a result of favourable weather in March and May. Particularly beneficial have been late rains and generally warm days in May with no serious cold or frost affecting crops. The late rains have also improved the prospects for the winter wheat recently planted. However, the output from the wheat crop, to be harvested towards the end of the year, could be affected by lower plantings resulting from low market prices.

The reduced 1998 harvest in South Africa is unlikely to limit the exportable surpluses in maize to the deficit countries in the sub-region.



CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1998/99 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)


Wheat Rice Coarse grains Total
Normal Production 1 835 3 8 830 10 668
Normal Exports 434 367 1 717 2 518
1998/99 Domestic Availability 2 625 62 8 594 11 281
1998 Production (rice in paddy terms) 2 625 3 8 399 11 027
1998 Production (rice in milled terms) 2 625 2 8 399 11 026
Possible stock drawdown - 60 195 255
1998/99 Utilization 3 125 509 9 316 12 950
Food Use 2 465 459 4 518 7 442
of which: local purchase requirement - - - -
Non-food use 190 50 4 098 4 338
Exports or Re-exports 470 - 700 1 170
Possible stock build up - - - -
1998/99 Import Requirement 500 447 722 1 669
Anticipated commercial imports 500 447 722 1 669
Food aid needs - - - -
Current Aid Position



Food aid pledges - - - -
of which: Delivered - - - -
Donor-financed purchases - - - -
of which: for local use - - - -
for export - - - -
Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/Year) 56 10 102 168
Indexes



1998 production as % of normal:


103
1998/99 import requirement as % of normal:


-
1998/99 food aid requirement as % of normal:




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