FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.2, August 1998 -

TANZANIA

CURRENT SITUATION

A recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Tanzania found that despite crop damage due to excessive rainfall, El Niño related rains have generally been favourable for the 1998 main crop season. Aggregate production of foodcrops in 1998 is forecast at some 32 percent above last year’s reduced volume and 13 percent above the average output for the past five years. Food supplies in the 1998/99 marketing year are forecast to exceed requirements for most foodcrops, except sorghum/millet and wheat. Notwithstanding an overall increase in food production much of central Tanzania and parts of northern and coastal areas are likely to experience considerable food deficits. Some 300 000 people will require food assistance.

Abundant rains this year encouraged farmers to expand the total area planted to food crops by 15 percent above last year. Area increases occurred, especially for roots and tubers, maize and wheat. On the other hand, the area planted to millet and sorghum declined by 29 percent, as rainfall conditions were not very conducive to the cultivation of these crops. Total food crop production is estimated to grow by 32 percent, with substantial increases estimated for cereals, bananas and roots and tubers. Within the cereals group, however, millet and sorghum production is forecast to fall by 32 percent, while maize and paddy is estimated to increase by 54 and 84 percent respectively.

Exports of rice in the order of 100 000 tonnes and 70 000 tonnes of maize are anticipated, the latter mainly in the form of already authorized exports as well as informal cross-border trade between Tanzania and its eight neighbours. With a 40 percent reduction of Zambia’s maize harvest this year, substantial amounts of maize are expected to flow out of Tanzania’s southern regions into neighbouring Zambian provinces offering attractive prices. Considerable quantities of Tanzania’s bumper paddy harvest will be bound for Uganda. The trend of informal cross-border net exports into Kenya is expected to continue this year.

The shortfall in sorghum/millet is expected to be partially covered by substitution with non-cereal crops. Full substitution is not possible since about half of the sorghum/millet is consumed in the form of beer. Overall, however, increased consumption of other food, reflecting ample supplies, will allow most of the population to maintain normal levels of total food consumption.