FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 11/98 - KAZAKHSTAN (24 November)

The total area sown to cereals and pulses in 1998 is estimated at 29 percent below the average for 1993- 1997.

The drop in planted area was accompanied by a 34 percent fall in cereal crop yields in 1998, according to official harvest projections. The main reason for low yields is unusually dry, hot weather from mid-June to August, which stressed spring crops at the reproductive stages. Some 80 percent of the total crop was affected, with particularly unfavourable conditions in the north of the country. Low utilization of fertilizer and crop protection chemicals was also a contributory factor. Total 1998 cereal production is officially estimated at 7.4 million tonnes, 40 percent below 1997 and about 50 percent below the average of the previous five years.

Officially reported grain carryover stocks amount to some 1.9 million tonnes. Substantial stock draw down is expected during the 1998/99 marketing year (July/June). Stocks were accumulated in 1997/98 as a result of a weak export market. With the prospects of increased demand from neighbouring countries coupled with a significant reduction in domestic feed demand, some 1.3 million tonnes of cereal exports are expected in 1998/99.

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