FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 11/98 - SOUTH AFRICA (25 November)

SOUTH AFRICA (25 November)

Normal to above-normal rains in September and October in most maize producing areas provided adequate topsoil moisture for the sowing of summer crop. The output of the 1998 wheat crop, now being harvested, is estimated at 1.47 million tonnes, 36 percent down compared to last year's above average crop and markedly below average. This decline is mostly due to a sharp decline in the area sown in response to low international and domestic wheat prices.

Aggregate cereal output in 1998 is currently estimated at 9.7 million tonnes, some 19 percent lower than last year's above-average crop. This total includes the latest estimate for the maize crop which declined, for the second consecutive year, to 7.59 million tonnes, 16 percent down on 1997. This was mainly due to reduced plantings and unfavourable weather. However, given the large carryover stocks, this decrease in production is unlikely to seriously limit the exportable surpluses to the deficit countries in the sub-region.

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