FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 11/98 - RUSSIAN FEDERATION (30 November)

A recent FAO fact-finding mission to the Russian Federation found that drought and high temperatures from mid-June to August are the main causes of a sharp drop in domestic cereal production this year. The total cereal crop (including 1997/98 winter and spring crops) is provisionally forecast at around 50 million tonnes compared to 86.7 million tonnes in 1997 and a 1993-1997 average of 73 million tonnes. The decline also reflects underlying downward trends in planted area and yields. Large carryover stocks have helped to protect aggregate feed supplies from the production shock, and domestic feed demand is expected to continue its downward course.

The outlook for the cereal trade for the remainder of 1998/99 is uncertain. On current projections, despite the fall in output and assuming a sharp drawdown in carryover stocks, imports are expected to rise only marginally. The relatively high quality grading of this year�s crop points to only moderate increases in import demand for food-quality cereals. The recently announced food aid package from the United States is expected to ease the situation and limit the risk of increased costs and/or logistics bottlenecks which the sharp stock drawdown would have implied. A substantial decline in imported processed foods is anticipated.

Remote areas in the north and far-east face the risk of erratic food supplies and high prices. Local trade restrictions could aggravate a tight market. The most vulnerable socio-economic groups, pensioners, orphans, the unemployed and households dependent on public salaries, can expect a tough winter, especially in the large, depressed industrial cities.

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