ANNEX 4 : ASIA-PACIFIC CONTRASTS

Annex Table A13 shows that in 1995, altogether, the top 17 countries and territories (about half of the countries and territories) accounted for 99% of Asia-Pacific population. PR China alone accounted for nearly 39% of the region's population (20% of the world total) with India a close second at nearly 30%. Between them, these two largest countries have over two-thirds of the region's population. Next in line and quite far behind is a group of countries which have over 100 million people - Indonesia, Japan, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, which between them account for nearly 580 million people or less than India alone. The Philippines and Vietnam also have potential to reach populations of over 100 million in the coming century;

There is skewed distribution of both economic production and population. In terms of economic output, Annex Table A1 shows that Japan, the top country, alone accounts for 58% of regional GDP; the first 10 countries already accounted for over 94% of regional GDP in 1995. By contrast, PR China and India, with nearly 70% of the region's population, account for only 17% of its GDP while five small countries and territories (Republic of Korea, Taiwan Province of China, Hong Kong SAR, China, Singapore, and Malaysia), with only 3% of the region's population, had 11% of its GDP. In 1995, the top five countries or territories²⁸ accounted for:

· 82% of total regional land area; 83% of the arable land under current technologies and 71% of forests and woodland (Annex Table A18);

· 83% of regional population (Annex Table A13). Much of the region's population is relatively young, but some countries have rapidly-ageing populations;

· 84% of GDP, (which include India and PR China). If these two populous countries are excluded, the top five become Japan, Australia, Republic of Korea, Taiwan Province of China and Indonesia and these alone have over 73% of the regional GDP (but only 11% of the population) (Annex Table A1);

· 67% of value of exports, which are a major engine driving development. If we exclude PR China, the leading five become Japan, Hong Kong SAR, China (soon to be part of PR China), Singapore, and Taiwan Province of China. Between them, these have only 6.5% of the region's population (Annex Table A4).

Some island states are so heavily dependent on narrowly-based exports that they face extreme macro-economic instability due to volatile international commodity markets and vulnerability to natural catastrophes etc.

In 14 of the 38 countries where data were available, annual population growth rates for 1990-1995 exceeded 2% including some medium-population size countries (Pakistan, Philippines and Vietnam); for another 16 they were at or above 1% (including both PR China and India) (Annex Table A15). In fact, apart from Japan and Thailand, all countries with significant populations were above the 1% p.a. rate during 1990-95.

For the 35 countries and territories with information, the average of annual GDP growth rate for 1990-1995 has a very wide range: six averaged above 8%; another eight averaged above 5% but below 8%; the rest were mostly positive but a very few suffered economic contraction. The Asia-Pacific region has all of the world's "miracle" economies, all of which have sustained spectacular growth rates for the longest periods known in history. Yet Asia-Pacific still leads the world in absolute numbers of the poor; it also has many economies which remain largely agrarian, with some also having significant pre-agrarian elements heavily dependent for subsistence on natural resources such as forests;²⁹

Of the industrial countries and 25 developing ones for which information was available, 9 had over 30% of their GDP derived from agriculture and of these, for 4 the ratio was above 40%. For only 13 was GDP in agriculture less than 20% (Annex Tables A11, A12). There is a ratio of over 13:1 (relative to the regional average) in per capita land area (ignoring land quality differences) and a 11:1 ratio in per capita arable land availability (Annex Table A18).

The expansion of the agricultural frontier has sharp contrasts: for 11 countries, the 1970-1994 trend shows reduction of agricultural area by as fast as over 11% annually (Singapore) and nearly 9% annually (Cambodia) while for three countries, the agricultural land has grown at over 2% annually and for four others at over 1% annually. The rate of area expansion for permanent crops shows even greater contrasts. Pakistan leads with a rate equivalent to a 14-year doubling time. The approximate doubling time of permanent crops for selected countries are:

	Vietnam	18 years
	Thailand	19 years
	Laos	24 years
	Solomon Islands	29 years.

Of the very major countries, Indonesia has the equivalent of 31 yeas doubling time. Annex Table A19 has details.

On the whole, Asia-Pacific countries have achieved food self-sufficiency and many are in surplus. But in 1995, the region still received 2.16 million tons of cereals, 29% of the world total cereals food aid, down from 57% in 1970 (Annex Table A21); the main recipient sub-region is South Asia, with Bangladesh in the lead. Ten countries account for almost all the food aid needs and many of these have been reducing their dependency rapidly.

28 Not necessarily the same five countries or territories for each parameter.

29 Estimated numbers of forest-dependent people in the region, mostly tribal peoples, vary greatly - between 200 and 500 millions have been mentioned. Strict definition of forest dependency could reduce these numbers to around 100 million but no "factual" information exists as these elements tend to be marginal in core statistical activities.