Area:
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627 000 sq.km
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Climate:
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Semi-arid in the south; rest arid
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Population:
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6.40 million (2000 estimate); G.N.P. per caput; n.a.
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Specific characteristics of the country:
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Low-income food-deficit country
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Logistics:
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Inadequate port facilities; serious shortage of fuel and spare parts
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Major foodcrops:
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Maize, sorghum, sesame
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Marketing year:
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August/July; Lean season: June-August
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Share of cereals in total calorie intake:
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45 percent
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The current main "Gu" season has largely failed due to erratic and insufficient rains, armyworm outbreaks, and unusually high temperatures. Water levels in the Shabelle River are reported to be below normal, reflecting below-average precipitation and reducing irrigation possibilities. Recent reports indicate a "Gu" cereal output of about 168 000 tonnes, about 11 percent below the post-war average. This follows six consecutive poor harvests since 1996, resulting from droughts and the unprecedented floods of early 1998 associated with the El Niño.
The food outlook for 1999 and beyond is extremely grim. The cumulative effects of adverse weather, the long-running civil war and uncontrolled crop pests and diseases have precipitated famine conditions in the country, particularly in the southern regions. Intensified inter-factional fighting has compounded the problem. Traditional coping strategies for most households have been virtually exhausted, while commercial and economic activities have been severely curtailed by factional fighting and insecurity, forcing large numbers of people to move in search of food and safety.
The recent lifting by Saudi Arabia of an import ban on livestock in some eastern African countries, imposed because of an outbreak of animal diseases, was expected to bring much needed relief to livestock producers. However, livestock prices are reported to be falling due to weight loss caused by a shortage of grazing and water, and probably distress selling. Malnutrition is reported to be high and increasing. The already precarious food supply situation is set to deteriorate further in the coming months with renewed fighting in parts, and more population displacement. Current estimates indicate that some 70 000 people have been displaced by food shortages and insecurity. It is estimated that more than 1 million people face serious food shortages, with over 400 000 at risk of starvation.
The international community needs to devise ways of reaching and assisting the increasingly desperate populations, despite the serious obstacles hampering food relief distributions, failing which starvation on a large scale cannot be ruled out. Most households will also need seeds and other inputs for planting during the next growing season.
| Wheat | Rice | Coarse grains | Total | |
| Normal Production | - | 13 | 550 | 563 |
| Normal Imports | 70 | 60 | 10 | 140 |
| of which: Structural food aid | 40 | 20 | 10 | 70 |
| 1999/2000 Domestic Availability | - | 6 | 240 | 246 |
| 1999 Production (rice in paddy terms) | - | 2 | 240 | 242 |
| 1999 Production (rice in milled terms) | - | 1 | 240 | 241 |
| Possible stock drawdown | - | 5 | - | 5 |
| 1999/2000 Utilization | 130 | 96 | 350 | 576 |
| Food Use | 130 | 96 | 286 | 512 |
| of which: local purchase requirement | - | - | - | - |
| Non-food use | - | - | 50 | 50 |
| Exports or Re-exports | - | - | - | - |
| Possible stock build up | - | - | 14 | 14 |
| 1999/2000 Import Requirement | 130 | 90 | 110 | 330 |
| Anticipated commercial imports | 70 | 75 | 40 | 185 |
| Food aid needs | 60 | 15 | 70 | 145 |
| Current Aid Position | ||||
| Food aid pledges | - | - | - | - |
| of which: Delivered | - | - | - | - |
| Donor-financed purchases | - | - | - | - |
| Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/Year) | 20 | 15 | 45 | 80 |
| Indexes | ||||
| 1999 production as % of normal: | 43 | |||
| 1999/2000 import requirement as % of normal: | 236 | |||
| 1999/2000 food aid requirement as % of normal: | 178 |
