FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 09/99 - INDIA (7 September)
Flooding in early September in eastern and northern regions may affect winter (Kharif) food production. Although normally by September, monsoon rains begin to recede, this year the rains have continued longer than expected. The overall pattern of rainfall has also been erratic with parts much drier than normal, which has led to localised drought, and others with excess rainfall.
The worst affected states by low rainfall, where crops have been stressed, include Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan . Crops most likely to be affected included groundnut, rice and soybeans. However the overall affect on rice may be offset somewhat by an increase in area planted this season, mostly in West Bengal, Bihar, Punjab and Haryana. In non irrigated areas that have been affected by below normal rains this year, overall rice prospects will depend heavily on rains for the remainder of September.
Erratic and below-normal rainfall has meant that rice production may not reach the record 86 million tonnes envisaged earlier in the season. The 1999 estimate of wheat production has been revised up to a record 73.5 million tonnes from 72.8 million tonnes in June. This is 7.6 million tonnes or 11.5 percent higher than 1998. The previous record for wheat production was in 1997, when 69 million tonnes were produced. The official estimate for the 1998/99 rice crop has also been revised up due to an upward revision in the area estimate. The 1998/99 area estimate has been revised to 44.5 million hectares and production to 84.7 million tonnes. The estimate for aggregate 1998/99 food grain production is now put at 202.5 million tonnes, including pulses, over a million tonnes higher than forecast earlier
In view of the record wheat crop and high support prices, the Food Corporation of India (FCI) procured a record 14 million tonnes of wheat this year. This raised stocks to a record 22.2 million tonnes by the beginning of July, 55 percent above the Governments minimum stock level. The comparatively high cost of domestic wheat, combined with falling world prices, however, have meant that exports remain unattractive. Moreover, the differences in world and domestic prices (including transport from producing areas) has also meant that wheat imports increased in August, particularly in southern parts. Currently the government is offering wheat to southern flour millers at around $173/tonne, compared to an imported wheat cost of between $120-140/tonne. The Food Ministry also anticipates higher rice procurement in the current 1999/00 marketing year than in 1998/99 to replenish stocks.
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