FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 09/99 - SOMALIA* (6 September)
A recent FAO/WFP Mission to the country found that the 1999 “Gu” season has largely failed due to erratic rains, uncontrolled crop pests and renewed civil conflict in southern parts of the country. After some early rains in March, the Gu season started late in April followed by erratic and below-average rains in May and a dry June. The low and poorly distributed rains resulted in poor yields and in many places crop failure. Irrigated maize suffered from low levels of water in the Shebelle and Juba rivers at the beginning of the season and lack of pumps.
1999 Gu cereal production, accounting for some 75-80 percent of annual production in normal years, is forecast at about 135 683 tonnes (37 135 tonnes of sorghum and 98 548 tonnes of maize), about 18 percent above last year’s Gu, but 32 percent below the post-war average. At this level, the sorghum crop amounts to little more than one-third of the post-war average of about 100 000 tonnes, while maize is about average. Reflecting yet another poor Gu harvest, cereal retail prices rose sharply compared to the same period last year. In addition to short supplies, the increase in cereal prices, particularly in Mogadishu, have also been driven by increased money supply, as factions inject new currency into the market.
Assuming Deyr cereal output at a post-war average of 70 000 tonnes and taking into account the expected (reduced) harvest in northern regions (Somaliland), total cereal production in 1999/2000 is estimated at about 206 000 tonnes, about six percent above last year’s poor output and 23 percent below the post-war average. With an opening stock of about 18 000 tonnes, total domestic cereal supply is estimated at 224 000 tonnes for the 1999/2000 marketing year (August/July). The country’s total cereal utilisation requirement for the 1999/2000 marketing year is estimated at 534 000 tonnes, leaving an import requirement of about 310 000 tonnes. With commercial imports estimated at 240 000 tonnes, the cereal deficit amounts to 70 000 tonnes. So far, total food aid pledges amount to 63 000 tonnes leaving an uncovered deficit of 7 000 tonnes.
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