FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 09/99 - TAJIKISTAN* (7 September)

Reports indicate that 1999 grain and pulse production could fall sharply to 430 000 tonnes and that the food supply situation is deteriorating. This would be the second year in succession that production has fallen and would be mainly due to sharply lower yields than last year. Contrary to earlier official indications, the area sown to cereals is now reported to have remained stable at about 400 000 hectares but yields are officially forecast to fall to about 1 tonne per hectare. Lower yields than last year are due to heavy rains in July which caused severe but localized damage, heavy infestation of wheat with rust and smut, inadequate use of high quality seed and other inputs and poor irrigation. Given that about 150 000 hectares of the land sown to grain is irrigated, official average yield expectations seem too low, despite persistent economic problems in the sector. Lack of resources available to the national statistics office and the government's weak control over large parts of the country limit the accuracy of information on economic and agricultural activity.

The agricultural sector employs almost half of the labour force but generates less than 30 percent of recorded GDP. Reforms which are being undertaken to improve efficiency include registry certificates for land redistributed under the 1996 agrarian reform, and implementing a special programme to centralize farms in 160 associations.

The shortfall in cereal production will have to be met by food aid and commercial imports, the latter mainly from Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. In 1999/2000, the cereal import requirement is estimated to increase to 403 000 tonnes. In 1998/99 the country received 46 000 tonnes of cereals as food aid. Allocations for the current year have not yet been finalized.

World Bank data indicates that about 85 percent of the population has incomes below the poverty line, 5 percent of the population are destitute and another 12 percent extremely poor. Standards of living have continued to decline in recent months. Recent assessments in the Karategin Valley found that large segments of the population were food insecure. Humanitarian assistance to vulnerable populations will continue to be necessary.

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