FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 09/99 - RUSSIAN FEDERATION (10 September)

Harvest returns to date confirm expectations of a larger harvest than last year's poor crop, despite a sharp reduction in grain area and locust infestations in some areas. FAO forecasts 1999 grain output at about 60 million tonnes, some 12 million tonnes higher than official output in 1998. At the forecast level, however, output would still be well below average. The aggregate area sown to grain crops, which survived winterkill, fell by 8 percent to 46.8 million hectares. This reduction is due to increased winterkill in 1999 (2.75mh compared to 2.1mh in 1998) and a reduction of 3 million hectares, to 35.4 million hectares, in the area sown to spring grains. This was due in part to shortages of seeds in the wake of last year's poor harvest. Also in response to the tight fodder situation, the aggregate area sown to wheat has fallen (for the first time since 1994) by over 3 million hectares to 23 million hectares, while that planted to coarse grains fell by 0.7 million hectares to 22.6 million hectares. Growing conditions have been mixed this year, particularly west of the Urals. Winter grain planting was hampered by dryness and yields in some parts of the North Caucasus (Stavropol, Rostov) and Volga Regions, making plants less resilient to winterkill. Frosts in May, but particularly hot and dry conditions in June and July reduced yields in some areas (notably Volgograd and Saratov, exacerbating lower winter plantings and winterkill looses) but overall winter grain yields are higher than last year�s, which were affected by drought. Markedly better yields have been achieved in the belt stretching from the North Caucasus to the Ural Region. East of the Urals growing conditions on the whole have been better but inflation and the chronic shortage of inputs are expected to keep yields below average. In addition, the harvest in East Siberia has been delayed by heavy rains.

Given normal weather until the completion of the harvest, indications are that higher average yields could more than offset the reduction in the area sown. FAO tentatively forecasts 1999 grain production at 60 million tonnes, including some 31 million tonnes of wheat (1998:30 tonnes) and 28 million tonnes of coarse grains (1998: 22.6 tonnes).

This year, locust infestations have occurred on 1.1 million hectares. The main infestations, of Italian Locusts, are in areas adjacent to Kazakhstan, including Orenburg (216 000 hectares) Altai Kray (150 000 hectares) Omsk (150 000 hectares) and the Republic of Bashkorstan (200 000 hectares). Further north, infestations have spread to some areas, e.g. Samara and Saratov regions, where locusts have not occurred for 40 years. In the Lower Povolsk and Northern Caucasus region, despite control measures, Italian Locusts have affected 156 000 hectares of which only 98 000 have been treated to date. In the Astrakhan and Kalmyk Republic, infestations of Asian Migratory Locust cover 14 000 hectares.

Overall, the food supply situation in 1999/2000 will remain tight and there is no scope to replenish stocks following the drawdown last year. Despite last year's poor harvest and reduced imports, cereal stocks carried forward in to 1999/2000 amount to at least 5 million tonnes. Given minimum grain needs of 70-72 million tonnes, (and a further reduction in feed use of grains,) there would remain a deficit of 5-7 million tonnes, with no stock replenishment. Against this requirement, outstanding deliveries of food aid pledged in 19998/99 amount to about 2.7 million tonnes. Latest indications are that at least 50 percent of this year's harvest is food wheat. At the aggregate level, this would be adequate to cover food needs but many regions have imposed bans on the movement of grain. Livestock numbers and meat production continue to decline, (meat production by 8 percent in the first half of this year) and the short term outlook is for this trend to continue.

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