FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 11/99 - AFGHANISTAN* (3 November)

Land preparation for the 1999/2000 winter grains has started. Planting may be hampered in the northern provinces, due mainly to upsurge in fighting. As the eight northern provinces together comprise some 40 percent of the country's irrigated cereal and about 53 percent of its rainfed area, a decline of the 1999/2000 production is expected if security conditions do not improve. Recent reports indicate that more than 100 000 people have been displaced by the recent escalation of factional fighting in the Shomali Plains. More than 60 000 are believed to have arrived in the capital since 5 August. The FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission that visited the country last May/June estimated the 1999 total cereal production at 3.24 million tonnes (rice in paddy equivalent), about 16 percent below the previous year's bumper output of 3.86 million tonnes due to low level of precipitation and outbreak of pests. The food situation is tight for the displaced population. In 1999 food aid has been distributed to approximately more 60 000 vulnerable households in the central highlands and to some 8 000 households in the north-eastern province of Badakhshan. Vulnerable groups are being provided through urban bakeries, institutional feeding programmes in hospitals, orphanages and health centres, and through food- for-work activities. Total cereal import requirements in the 1999/2000 marketing year (July/June) is estimated at a record 1.1 million tonnes, of which more than 95 percent is wheat. Commercial imports of cereals in 1999/2000 are forecast at 800 000 tonnes, about one-third higher than last year due to increased private sector activity, cash crop production and active cross-border trade. Emergency food aid requirement (including food-for- work and food-for-seed), estimated at 97 000 tonnes, is already in the pipeline, leaving an uncovered 226 000 tonnes.

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