FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 11/99 - KOREA, REPUBLIC OF (2 November)

Late season rains in October, affected rice harvesting somewhat. The official estimate for 1999 rice production is put at around 5.2 million tonnes, which is about average and slightly higher than last year. Production this year was adversely affected by damage from heavy rains and typhoons since during the monsoon season from July. In particular typhoon Anne and Bart caused significant rice damage in south- eastern provinces in late September. The 1999 rice procurement target is one million tonnes.

KOREA, DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF* (3 November)

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission, which visited the country from 9 to 19 October, noted that food supply prospects will remain precarious over the next 12 months despite some improvement in rice production this year. The increase in rice was principally due to increased fertilizer use, adequate irrigation supplies and the absence of serious pest and disease attacks. Although fertilizer availability (NPK) almost doubled this year, to around 199 000 tonnes (nutrient equivalent) compared to 1998, supplies covered less than one third of requirements to attain optimum yields and maintain basic soil productivity. In addition, heavy nutrient mining, where more nutrients are being extracted from the soil than replaced, and the growing importance of double cropping in enhancing food security, mean that overall requirements of fertilizers are likely to be considerably higher than hitherto. The gains in rice production, however, were more than offset by the reduction in maize output as the area cultivated fell sharply, due to substitution and increased national emphasis on potatoes, restriction of maize cultivation on hill slopes to control degradation and a prolonged dry spell at critical stages in the crop cycle. The weather pattern in 1999 was erratic. Following a slow start to the season, rainfall at important stages of maize development from May to July was well below normal, which seriously affected yields. Overall, therefore, paddy production is put at 2.34 million tonnes, around 14 percent or 280 000 tonnes higher than estimated production in 1998, whilst maize production is estimated to have fallen by almost 30 percent from the 1.76 million tonnes estimated by FAO/WFP in 1998 to 1.24 million tonnes this year. In addition to rice and maize, food supply prospects in 1999/2000 will also depend heavily on the output of next year's potato and double crop barley and wheat crops. Although only a tentative forecast at this stage, based on target areas, production of these crops is forecast at 1.813 million tonnes of potato (453 000 tonnes cereal equivalent) and 241 000 tonnes of wheat and barley. In grain equivalent including milled rice and other minor cereal crops, such as sorghum and millets, overall domestic grain availability for the next marketing year is forecast at 3.472 million tonnes. Based on revised population figures provided by the Government, grain demand for food and other utilization needs for 1999/2000 is estimated at 4.76 million tonnes. This leaves a deficit of around 1.29 million tonnes, of which the Government is expected to import 300 000 tonnes commercially, whilst a further 126 000 tonnes is covered by pipeline food aid imports. Taking these into account, the uncovered import requirement, therefore, is estimated at 867 000 tonnes, with which the country still needs assistance. In addition, although sizeable contribution were made over the last year to rehabilitate agriculture, to ensure food security, much more is needed. In particular, contributions to the Agricultural Recovery and Environmental Protection Programme (AREP), jointly prepared by the Government and the UN have so far been disappointing and need to be enhanced.

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