1. The 1974/76 - 1983/85 period saw a rapid growth in both aggregate and per caput consumption of dairy products in West Africa. Aggregate production in the region grew at lower rates and partly in reflection of this, imports rose fast. In 1983/85 imports, expressed in liquid milk equivalents (LME), accounted for an average 45% of dairy consumption in the West African region.
2. Preliminary indications are that much of the consumption of dairy imports in West Africa occurred in humid and sub-humid areas where most of the countries which relatively are highly urbanised and have high incomes are located. A priori, this would indicate an already established market for increased domestic production to capture. And a recent policy response to the growing importance of dairy imports in total dairy consumption has been for governments to encourage domestic milk production.
3. In practice, policies of this kind face several limitations. For one thing, there is little empirical evidence on which to base them. For another, dairy demand and supply situations are highly heterogeneous within West Africa. For instance, the importance, pattern and distribution of dairy consumption, and the factors which motivate consumers to use different types of dairy products or marketing channels vary sharply between countries, ecological zones, rural and urban areas, and under different economic and social circumstances. Another limitation relates to the comparative advantage of domestic milk production. It is often argued that in the particular context of West Africa, returns to dairying are not as attractive as those from other livestock and cropping activities. However, there are also indications that for selected areas and dairy products, cost-reducing investments, improvements in milk processing and marketing, and appropriate pricing and exchange rate policies could significantly offset the comparative disadvantage of domestic milk production. In view of the above, it is difficult to endorse policies for promoting domestic milk production unequivocally without looking into the specific milk supply and demand situations of West Africa.
4. Against this background, this article proposes to investigate whether critical assumptions about the nature, scale and location of dairy demand and about the substitutability of fresh liquid milk for imported dairy products are adequately based to launch milk production programmes in the moist areas of West Africa. It describes past trends in dairy production, imports and consumption and examines the evidence on factors influencing dairy consumption patterns in West Africa. On this basis, it provides projected 1988 estimates of dairy consumption by product type and origin, by ecological zone and rural/urban category. It then compares these projections with actual figures for 1985/87 and draws policy implications for increased dairy consumption and domestic milk production in West Africa.
