The CGIAR, established in 1971, has since grown from a System sponsoring four centres with a budget of US$ 20 million, to one currently supporting 18 centres which have a total annual budget of approximately US$ 300 million. Over the years, the CGIAR has widened its scope from a focus on agricultural research to include forestry and fisheries research, and to give much greater emphasis to sustainability and resource management issues.
When the CGIAR was established, some of its founders foresaw that it would have a lifespan of about 25-30 years (Baum, 1986). What they may not have anticipated was:
· that increases in food production alone could not solve equity problems, such as extreme poverty;· that the populations of developing countries may not stabilize until well into the next century;
· the dramatic rise in significance of long-term natural resources conservation and management issues, including those of forests and fisheries; and
· the growing internationalization of science and technology generally, as a result of the revolution in information technology and global communication.
The expectation that national and regional research systems would rapidly gain adequate capacity to cater for their research needs also proved to be over-optimistic. While investment in national research systems in developing countries increased rapidly during the 1960s and 1970s, the rate of growth slowed down considerably during the 1980s. Although the number of scientists in developing countries has increased almost fourfold over the last 20 years, the real spending per scientist has declined by 3.2% per annum since 1980 (Pardey, 1994). There are wide variations around these averages, and the strength of national research systems varies considerably among countries. While some developing countries now have strong national research systems which are able to cater for their applied and strategic research needs, the capacity of many national systems has declined considerably or remained weak for a variety of reasons such as lack of political support and economic difficulties. There are also considerable variations in the strength of particular programmes within the same national research systems.
The challenges facing agricultural research for developing countries have intensified since the inception of the CGIAR. The world population has grown from 3.7 billion in 1971 to 5.5 billion today, and is expected to reach 7.2 billion by the year 2010, and 8.5 billion by 2025. Of the total increment in world population, 94% will be in developing countries and every year through 2025, almost 100 million more people will need to be fed. Given the current low average levels of per capita food consumption in many developing countries, a continued strong growth in their food supplies and their equitable distribution will be required. The increasing need for food must be met primarily from land currently under cultivation and without further degradation of the natural resources. Over the next 30 years, yields of food grains will need to more than double if domestic production in developing countries is to meet minimum food and nutritional needs. Only a fraction of the output required can be provided through trade. Over 1.1 billion people in developing countries are poor, of which more than two thirds live in South Asia or sub-Saharan Africa (FAO, 1993). Nearly 800 million people suffer from seasonal and chronic malnutrition. While most of the poor and malnourished live in rural areas, an increasing number live in urban areas. Development of agriculture is essential for poverty alleviation and for a more equitable distribution of food supplies. The challenge of the international agricultural research system, and, in particular, the CGIAR is to assist national research systems to develop new technologies, to raise yields and productivity, and to increase employment and alleviate poverty and malnutrition without degrading the natural resource base.
The CGIAR has always been a dynamic undertaking which has responded to changing internal and external environments. The challenges to research are now more complex than ever. While the Green Revolution, which had its origins in the CGIAR, has led to the improvement of the livelihood of hundreds of millions of poor people, its impact has been most profound in the irrigated areas of Asia and Latin America. More limited progress has been made in the less favourable areas including those where irrigation was not well developed such as sub-Saharan Africa. Further efforts are also required to sustain the gains of the Green Revolution. Greater emphasis needs to be given to sustainability aspects of production by integrating resource management and commodity research in order to maintain or enhance the natural resource base to support increasing output. The CGIAR will also need to make a major contribution to the implementation of UNCED's Agenda 21.
The CGIAR accounts for around 4% of the global investment in research on agriculture, forestry and fisheries for developing countries, but its importance and contributions far exceed this monetary share, through its value as a role model and a catalyst. The new challenges facing the CGIAR can only be met effectively through greater partnership and sharing of responsibilities with national research systems and other institutes conducting research for developing countries. Given the limited resources available, the CGIAR must limit its activities to those it can do best and for which it has unequivocal advantages. The CGIAR must focus on those activities for which an international effort is required because of economies of scale, the long-term perspective, the magnitude and nature of spillover benefits, and on activities that lead to outputs which are international public goods.
At ICW'93, the CGIAR "requested TAC to initiate a critical examination of the present coverage of activities, programmes and regions because the current funding levels in the medium term will require a repositioning of programmes and institutions; and present MTM'94 with options for restructuring" (ICW'93, Summary of Proceedings and Decisions). TAC undertook this analysis at TAC 63 in March in Rome. A Preparatory Consultation for MTM'94 on strategic issues, convened by the CGIAR Chair in Washington DC on 13 April 1994, requested TAC to present its analysis with options for change in two parts. As indicated in the summary report of that Consultation, "the first part, to be tabled at MTM'94, would provide an analytical framework for examining the long-term vision of the CGIAR, identify the CGIAR programmes that would be part of the vision and sketch out the institutional structure that would be required to implement the vision in the medium term. TAC would also identify priorities for Systemwide initiatives and opportunities for reducing System costs by streamlining non-research activities from a System perspective." The second part could be finalized after MTM'94 and would discuss the short- and medium-term transition steps which may have to be taken if resource levels were to continue below recommended levels.
This paper provides Part I of TAC's analysis. It contains the analytical framework used by TAC to underpin its deliberations and provides the Committee's views on options for a CGIAR structure in the longer term.
Chapter 2 presents the framework for change and a set of guiding principles for TAC's analysis. It also recalls the medium- and long-term visions of the CGIAR, and provides TAC's views on CGIAR priorities, on institutional capacity, governance and management, and on opportunities for Systemwide efficiency gains. Chapter 3 provides TAC's views on the elements for a CGIAR strategy for the 21st century, and proposes possible options for a future structure of the CGIAR in the longer term. Finally, concluding remarks are given in Chapter 4.
