1. Rice is the most important food crop in the world and is the major staple for 2.7 billion people in Asia alone. Over 90% of rice is produced and consumed in Asia. Rice is a minor crop in developed countries which account for less than 5 % of global production. International trade in rice is relatively insignificant as almost all the rice is consumed in the country in which it is produced.
2. Global demand for rice is projected to grow at rates at least equal to population growth rates and by the year 2030 the amount of rice needed will be more than double present output. At the same time, there is limited scope for increasing the net area sown to rice, especially in Asia. In most rice growing regions, the area of irrigated land cannot be expanded greatly, either because water resources are limited or the required investments in new schemes are not likely to be made. Productivity improvement, including more efficient use of water, will have to be the dominant source of output growth during the next 4 decades.
3. The rate of growth of rice yields in the highest yielding areas of Asia has slowed down, there is evidence of declining factor productivity in irrigated rice systems and in some intensively managed systems there is even evidence of yield decline. Yet, to meet the future global demand, yields will need to virtually double. This represents a major scientific and policy challenge.
4. Significant growth in research expenditures of national programmes, together with strong international and bilateral support, has been a major factor in increasing output in the last 3 decades. Modem varieties developed from focused research efforts have spread to more than 50% of the world's rice area and have allowed for an increase in rice production which was sufficient to feed about 600 million more people.
5. The CGIAR accounts for approximately 6% of public-sector investment in rice research for developing countries. Although the CGIAR is a relatively small actor, it has contributed significantly to the stock of knowledge and human capital in rice science. The rate of return on this investment has been substantial. The CGIAR currently allocates just under US$40 million annually to rice research, representing approximately 19% of the system's core resources allocated to commodity research. This share is largely congruent with the share of rice in the overall value of production of agricultural commodities. The growth of both national and international funding of research appears to have slowed down in the 1980s, and in recent years, real investment in rice research may well have declined. This reinforces the need for increased efficiency of resource allocation.
6. There are 3 major themes in international rice research to which the CGIAR must make a major contribution: (i) raise the yield ceiling, which has not increased significantly since IR8 was released in 1966; (ii) close the yield gaps between potential yields and those achieved in farming practice; and, (iii) sustain current yields -sustainability issues include the problems of the less-favourable rainfed environments where rice is an important component of cropping systems, as well as those of yield decline in intensive irrigated systems. In addition, the CGIAR should contribute to building national research capacity to complement its research activities.
7. Of the extra output of rice to be produced by the year 2030, 91.3% will be needed in Asia, 3.8% in sub-Saharan Africa, 3.8% in Latin America and 1.1% in West Asia and North Africa (WANA). The CGIAR currently allocates 65.6% of core expenditures for rice improvement research to Asia, 21.4% to sub-Saharan Africa (17.1% to West Africa), 10.7% to Latin America and the Caribbean, and 2.3% to WANA.
8. Rice is grown in 4 major production environments or 'ecosystems' which have been broadly defined on the basis of water regime: irrigated areas, accounting for 71% of rice output, rainfed lowlands for 19%, uplands for 7% and deepwater/tidal areas for 4%. By 2030, 70.1 % of increased output will have to be generated by the irrigated areas which currently account for 42.7% of CGIAR core research expenditures, 20.8% by the rainfed lowlands which currently account for 24.9% of CGIAR core expenditures, 6.3% by the uplands which account for 21.5% of expenditures and 2.9% by deepwater/tidal areas which account for 10.9% of CGIAR core expenditures.
9. In view of the magnitude of the challenge faced by the CGIAR, and the high rates of return on its investments in rice research, TAC recommends that the global share of CGIAR funding for rice research should not be reduced.
10. TAC considered the wide variation between regions in intensity of rice research. On the basis of modified congruence, the CGIAR appears to be under-investing in priority areas of Asia and over-investing in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in West Africa. The relative allocation to Latin America and the Caribbean and to WANA appears to be about right. TAC believes that a congruence analysis provides a useful input into the process of setting research priorities but that other factors such as potential for payoff to research, differential capacities of NARS to complement the work of the CGIAR, chances of success, need for a minimum critical mass and advantage of the CGIAR also need to be taken into account.
11. TAC gave careful consideration to the future needs and opportunities for rice research in West Africa. While TAC reiterates its earlier views that on straight economic grounds, there is not a good case for the present level of CGIAR expenditures on rice research in West Africa, it also took into account the projected need for research on the environmental problems of important upland farming systems of West Africa in which rice is a significant component. TAC also reiterates its views expressed in the 1992 paper 'Review of CGIAR Priorities and Strategies' that, given the CGIAR's decision to support a major upland rice improvement effort in West Africa, it recommended a minimum effort in terms of senior staff years in order to have a reasonable chance of success. On the basis of a number of indicators, an appropriate programme level might be in the order of around $3 million in constant 1992 US dollars per year, which is substantially less than the amount currently being allocated. Such a programme would continue to provide core funding for research in West Africa to breed rice for local adaptation (with strong links to IRRI's work on germplasm improvement), and for the work on the sustainability of important rice-based farming systems. Given the increasing overlap in activities in West Africa between IITA and WARDA, TAC recommends an integrated programme of resource management research between these Centres covering at least the inland valley ecosystem of West Africa.
12. TAC supports the current regional mandates of CIAT for Latin America and the Caribbean, and WARDA for West Africa. In Asia, WANA, and in Eastern and Southern Africa (including Madagascar), IRRI has assumed regional responsibility. Coverage of regional rice research needs appears to be satisfactory.
13. TAC has also considered the apparent imbalance in allocation of resources by rice ecosystem. The Committee reiterates its earlier observation that a congruence analysis provides only one input into the priority-setting process, and that ecosystem, sustainability, equity and researchability arguments are also very important. Nevertheless, TAC considers that, at the system level, the CGIAR may be over-investing in the rainfed lowlands and uplands. This issue may, however, warrant further consideration.
14. The centres engaged in rice improvement research are IRRI, WARDA and CIAT. IITA has transferred its rice improvement activities to WARDA, and still provides a base for the International Network for the Genetic Evaluation of Rice (INGER) in Africa, and for WARDA's lowland rice breeding, as well as having responsibility for resource management research in the inland valleys which is also a major focus of WARDA's work. Other aspects of rice research are carried out by IBPGR (genetic resources), IFPRI (policy research), IIMI (irrigation), and ISNAR (research management). IRRI plays a global role in germplasm conservation, enhancement and breeding (including INGER) and an appropriate regional role in Asia, WANA and Eastern and Southern Africa.
15. TAC notes with concern the weakened capacity of some NARS engaged in rice research, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. One of the basic assumptions of the CGIAR is that stronger NARS should take a greater complementary role in the global research system. The solution appears to have more to do with public policy, funding and research management than with the organization of commodity and ecoregional research. This could have important implications for the future role of the CGIAR centres in institution-building activities.
16. In its deliberations on the future of WARDA, TAC has faced a dilemma. The report of the Inter-Centre Review of Rice has served largely to reinforce TAC's own assessment of priorities for rice research. Consequently, if TAC applies the same rigour to rice research in West Africa which it has applied throughout its priority-setting exercise, the Committee could not support a case for funding WARDA at the level required to make it a viable rice research institute.
17. At the same time, TAC cannot escape the consequences of the policy decision taken by the CGIAR with respect to WARDA in 1986, a decision that was based on considerations in addition to priorities for rice research. Both TAC and WARDA have responded to the Group's wish to help WARDA to transform itself into a well-managed institute doing research of high quality. The report of the EPMR confirms that this has been achieved. Furthermore, as already indicated, WARDA will continue to play a major role in conducting research on the sustainability of important rice-based farming systems in West Africa. TAC is, therefore, not prepared to recommend any further reduction in core funding for WARDA.
18. On the basis of the above analysis, TAC finds no compelling reason at this time to adjust the level of the resource envelope which it assigned to WARDA in the medium-term planning process for the period 1994-1998. During this next quinquennium, WARDA should be encouraged to explore ways of widening its sources of funds for research on major components (including, for example, vegetables) of rice-based farming systems in West Africa. Attention should be given to sources outside the CGIAR, especially from countries in the region. Over the ensuing 5 years (1999-2003), CGIAR funding would be determined on the basis of the next review of CGIAR priorities and strategies, the report of which is due in 1997, and should be at a level appropriate to WARDA's contribution to CGIAR priorities.
19. The implications of TAC's recommendations on CGIAR priorities and strategies for rice research for resource allocation will be considered within the framework of the medium-term resource allocation process. TAC agrees in principle with an increased allocation of resources for rice research in Asia, as it had already indicated in the 1992 review of CGIAR priorities and strategies. The Committee hopes that such a resource shift can be obtained partly by transferring a greater share of responsibilities currently assumed by IRRI to national research systems in Asia.
