SUMMARY

Rice is the world's most important food crop.

Rice is the single most important food crop in the world. It provides over 60 percent of total food energy in some of the most heavily populated countries.

Most of the world's rice is in Asia.

Over 90 percent of the world's rice is produced and consumed in Asia.

Trade in rice is insignificant.

Almost all the rice is consumed in the country in which it is produced. Less than 5 percent of global output enters international trade.

The real price of rice has fallen.

As with other cereals, world rice supplies have grown faster than demand, so that the real price has tended down over the last 50 years.

Lower real prices are important to consumers.

As rice is such a significant part of the household budget for many of the world's poor, lower real prices are an important source of real income growth for poor families.

The demand for rice continues to grow.

While some diminution is expected in the growth of demand for rice, global demand is forecast to grow at rates at least equal to population growth rates. By the year 2030 the amount of rice needed will be more than double present output.

Productivity growth has become more important.

Increases in output come from additional land sown to rice, from extra inputs and from higher yields. In the 1960s, increased areas accounted for over half the annual increase in output. By the 1980s, the majority of the output increases were from higher productivity.

Future increases must come from higher productivity.

In the major rice growing areas, there, is limited scope for increasing the area sown to rice. If the continuing demand for rice is to be met, yields will have to increase.

Attaining higher productivity will be a challenge.

There is concern that yields under some intensive rice cultures are declining. In many irrigated areas, factor productivity appears to be declining. Environmental impacts on soil, water, air and human health are a threat to long-term sustainability. Investment in irrigation systems is more costly and has slowed down.

Past investment in research has contributed substantially to output.

Significant growth in research expenditures by national programmes, together with strong international support, has been a major factor in increasing output in the last three decades.

Modern rice varieties are grown extensively.

In the last 30 years, modern varieties developed from focused research efforts have spread to more than 50 percent of the world's rice area, and to more than two thirds of the rice area of the three biggest producers, China, India and Indonesia.

Investment by the CGIAR has been small but significant.

Although investment in rice research by the CGIAR is only 6 percent of global public sector efforts, it has contributed significantly to the stock of knowledge and human capital in rice science. The rate of return on this investment has been substantial.

Budgets are now tighter than in the past.

The growth of both national and international funding appears to have slowed down in the 1980s. Real investment in rice research may well be declining. This is an alarming trend, and highlights the need to question whether sufficient resources in total are being assigned to rice research. Given the evidence of payoffs to this investment, it is not apparent that cuts in the real level of funding are appropriate.

This reinforces the need for close attention to resource allocation.

The minor role of the CGIAR, together with the increased stringency of funding requires that close attention be paid to ensure that limited resources are appropriately allocated.

The major challenge is in Asia.

Over 90 percent of the extra output that will be needed by 2030 is in Asia, amongst the world's poorest people.

Other regions play a very minor part.

The total increase in rice output in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa projected by the year 2030, is less than half of Indonesia's current output.

Yields will need to double.

To meet the needs of the world's rice consumers, yields will need to virtually double. This represents a major scientific challenge and will require a strong focus on basic and strategic research.

The existing research system has many strengths.

Sound investments in the past have created a strong international rice research system, complementing growing capacity throughout national programmes.

But there are serious imbalances.

In the light of future global needs, the current pattern of core funding by the CGIAR has resulted in resources being diverted from priority areas in Asia.

Predominant among these are the funds allocated to sub-Saharan Africa.

Over 20 percent of core funding is currently allocated to a region whose total expected contribution to global rice needs in 2030 is barely 4 percent.

Such misallocation is costly.

Clearly all regions have legitimate claims on extra resources. But while the total amount of resources is limited, the additional funding to sub-Saharan Africa comes at a cost of foregone output and the welfare of the greater part of the world's poor in Asia. This cost is high and will increase.

To meet the challenges, a strengthened global rice research focus is required.

IRRI, the centre responsible for global commodity leadership and for Asia must have the funding commensurate with its task of contributing the technology required to produce 90 percent of the additional rice which will be needed.

The global commodity centre needs to be complemented by ecoregional mechanisms.

The sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America regions need to have a small tightly-focused research effort in rice linked closely to IRRI.

The present allocation of funding is incompatible with meeting global needs.

The current regional balance of funding is not aligned with the future needs for increased rice production. Furthermore, given the over-riding importance of the irrigated sector, it is not clear that the growing research emphasis on harsher environments is fully justifiable.

The present institutional arrangements for sub-Saharan Africa are not tenable.

On one hand, the current allocation of core funds to this region cannot be justified from a global perspective. On the other hand, WARDA cannot continue to operate as an independent commodity-based centre for a relatively small region with reduced funding.

A revised structure in West Africa is obligatory.

If the case for significant reallocation of core funding is accepted, a new arrangement must be sought to effectively utilize core funding for rice research in West Africa.

A new joint initiative with IITA is suggested.

If the reduced core funding were applied to an integrated programme of rice research placed firmly in the context of the resource management programmes of IITA, current problems of overlapping mandates, costly overheads, and inappropriate emphasis on a single commodity could be resolved.

The CGIAR must continue to focus on global food needs.

The challenge to double rice production is enormous. Any diversion of effort from priority areas will inevitably weaken the CGIAR's demonstrated ability to contribute to increasing the world's food supplies.

Rice is the world's most important food crop.	Rice is the single most important food crop in the world. It provides over 60 percent of total food energy in some of the most heavily populated countries.
Most of the world's rice is in Asia.	Over 90 percent of the world's rice is produced and consumed in Asia.
Trade in rice is insignificant.	Almost all the rice is consumed in the country in which it is produced. Less than 5 percent of global output enters international trade.
The real price of rice has fallen.	As with other cereals, world rice supplies have grown faster than demand, so that the real price has tended down over the last 50 years.
Lower real prices are important to consumers.	As rice is such a significant part of the household budget for many of the world's poor, lower real prices are an important source of real income growth for poor families.
The demand for rice continues to grow.	While some diminution is expected in the growth of demand for rice, global demand is forecast to grow at rates at least equal to population growth rates. By the year 2030 the amount of rice needed will be more than double present output.
Productivity growth has become more important.	Increases in output come from additional land sown to rice, from extra inputs and from higher yields. In the 1960s, increased areas accounted for over half the annual increase in output. By the 1980s, the majority of the output increases were from higher productivity.
Future increases must come from higher productivity.	In the major rice growing areas, there, is limited scope for increasing the area sown to rice. If the continuing demand for rice is to be met, yields will have to increase.
Attaining higher productivity will be a challenge.	There is concern that yields under some intensive rice cultures are declining. In many irrigated areas, factor productivity appears to be declining. Environmental impacts on soil, water, air and human health are a threat to long-term sustainability. Investment in irrigation systems is more costly and has slowed down.
Past investment in research has contributed substantially to output.	Significant growth in research expenditures by national programmes, together with strong international support, has been a major factor in increasing output in the last three decades.
Modern rice varieties are grown extensively.	In the last 30 years, modern varieties developed from focused research efforts have spread to more than 50 percent of the world's rice area, and to more than two thirds of the rice area of the three biggest producers, China, India and Indonesia.
Investment by the CGIAR has been small but significant.	Although investment in rice research by the CGIAR is only 6 percent of global public sector efforts, it has contributed significantly to the stock of knowledge and human capital in rice science. The rate of return on this investment has been substantial.
Budgets are now tighter than in the past.	The growth of both national and international funding appears to have slowed down in the 1980s. Real investment in rice research may well be declining. This is an alarming trend, and highlights the need to question whether sufficient resources in total are being assigned to rice research. Given the evidence of payoffs to this investment, it is not apparent that cuts in the real level of funding are appropriate.
This reinforces the need for close attention to resource allocation.	The minor role of the CGIAR, together with the increased stringency of funding requires that close attention be paid to ensure that limited resources are appropriately allocated.
The major challenge is in Asia.	Over 90 percent of the extra output that will be needed by 2030 is in Asia, amongst the world's poorest people.
Other regions play a very minor part.	The total increase in rice output in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa projected by the year 2030, is less than half of Indonesia's current output.
Yields will need to double.	To meet the needs of the world's rice consumers, yields will need to virtually double. This represents a major scientific challenge and will require a strong focus on basic and strategic research.
The existing research system has many strengths.	Sound investments in the past have created a strong international rice research system, complementing growing capacity throughout national programmes.
But there are serious imbalances.	In the light of future global needs, the current pattern of core funding by the CGIAR has resulted in resources being diverted from priority areas in Asia.
Predominant among these are the funds allocated to sub-Saharan Africa.	Over 20 percent of core funding is currently allocated to a region whose total expected contribution to global rice needs in 2030 is barely 4 percent.
Such misallocation is costly.	Clearly all regions have legitimate claims on extra resources. But while the total amount of resources is limited, the additional funding to sub-Saharan Africa comes at a cost of foregone output and the welfare of the greater part of the world's poor in Asia. This cost is high and will increase.
To meet the challenges, a strengthened global rice research focus is required.	IRRI, the centre responsible for global commodity leadership and for Asia must have the funding commensurate with its task of contributing the technology required to produce 90 percent of the additional rice which will be needed.
The global commodity centre needs to be complemented by ecoregional mechanisms.	The sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America regions need to have a small tightly-focused research effort in rice linked closely to IRRI.
The present allocation of funding is incompatible with meeting global needs.	The current regional balance of funding is not aligned with the future needs for increased rice production. Furthermore, given the over-riding importance of the irrigated sector, it is not clear that the growing research emphasis on harsher environments is fully justifiable.
The present institutional arrangements for sub-Saharan Africa are not tenable.	On one hand, the current allocation of core funds to this region cannot be justified from a global perspective. On the other hand, WARDA cannot continue to operate as an independent commodity-based centre for a relatively small region with reduced funding.
A revised structure in West Africa is obligatory.	If the case for significant reallocation of core funding is accepted, a new arrangement must be sought to effectively utilize core funding for rice research in West Africa.
A new joint initiative with IITA is suggested.	If the reduced core funding were applied to an integrated programme of rice research placed firmly in the context of the resource management programmes of IITA, current problems of overlapping mandates, costly overheads, and inappropriate emphasis on a single commodity could be resolved.
The CGIAR must continue to focus on global food needs.	The challenge to double rice production is enormous. Any diversion of effort from priority areas will inevitably weaken the CGIAR's demonstrated ability to contribute to increasing the world's food supplies.