Global Changes in Animal Agriculture
Animal agriculture in. grazing, mixed crop-livestock, specialised and industrial systems is an integral part of food-producing systems, with food of animal origin providing about one sixth of human food energy and a third of the protein on a global basis.
Animals convert forages, crop residues and food and fibre by-products to high quality human food, provide draught power for about half the world's crop production and manure to help maintain soil fertility, and are an important part of rural economies.
Animals also consume one-third of the global grain supply, and in a world with the human population estimated to reach 7.7 billion by 2020, and with limited opportunity to expand arable land, the role of animal agriculture in human food supply for developing countries is likely to grow substantially.
Higher incomes (3.8% increase per annum in developing countries from 1985 to 1995) associated with rapid urbanisation and high population growth (2% per annum) lead to increased consumption of meat, milk and eggs in the developing countries'. There is also increased demand for quality products, particularly from growing middle income classes. The expansion of the livestock industry, with annual growth rates from 1982 to 1993 for all developing countries of 7.4% for poultry, 6.1% for pork, 5.3% for all meat and 3.1% for milk, is a multiple of the expansion of cereal production indicating major shifts occurring in the diets of billions of people in the developing world.
Consumption of meat, milk and eggs varies widely among countries, reflecting differences in food production resources, production systems, income and cultural factors. People in developing Asia and Africa currently consume about 3 to 4 times less meat, and 5 to 6 times less milk products per caput compared to developed countries (OECD). However, per caput meat consumption in developing countries is projected to more than double by 2020, while in developed countries it is projected to increase no more - and less in some cases - than human population. Since more than three-quarters of the world's population live in developing countries, global demand for meat is estimated to increase by more than 60% by 2020, with 88% of this expansion estimated to occur in developing countries. The developing countries' share of total world meat consumption is estimated to expand from 47% currently to 63% by 2020.
Industrial livestock production in the developing world grows at twice the rate of livestock output in mixed farming systems, and more than six times the rate in grazing systems. On average, grain feeding to ruminants is expanding at 4% per year for all developing countries.
As a result of these dynamic shifts the food function of livestock is becoming more important, whereas non-food functions such as draught, manure and asset creation are diminishing in importance, especially in Asia and LAC. In addition, there is a significant shift from ruminant to monogastric animals; pork and poultry meat already represent more than two-thirds of the total meat consumed in developing countries. Africa is rapidly catching up with the rate of development in Asia and LAC, with annual growth rates of meat production of 7% in industrial systems and 2.5% in mixed production systems.
At the same time, the structure of animal production is changing; in particular, vertical integration of the industry is expanding. Demand for products increasingly drives livestock production more so than the availability of resources such as feed or water. The importance of tropical and sub-tropical sub-humid and humid zones for livestock production is increasing. Industrial and mixed farming systems are expanding while grazing systems are losing their relative importance. Technological shifts to intensive and more specialised systems are evident, and the search for improved efficiency of livestock production leads to substantial changes in the patterns of livestock management and disease epidemiology.
The drastic expansion of the livestock industry stretches the capacity of existing production systems, exacerbating environmental problems and increasing concerns about zoonoses and public health issues associated with livestock and livestock products. Where the demand for animal products increases rapidly, land-based systems often fail to respond, leading to animal concentrations that are out of balance with the feed supply as well as the waste absorption capacity of the available land. Because of animal and human health hazards, industrial animal production is typically moved beyond city boundaries as soon as infrastructural development permits.
Livestock products are increasingly important export commodities for developing countries. In 1994/6, export earnings either from dairy and meat or from hides, skins, wool and leather nearly equalled the total value of cereals exported by developing countries (92-94% as large). Either the value of leather footwear exports or the total of other livestock commodities (dairy and meat plus hides, skins, wool, leather) dwarfed the total value of trade in cereals, as well as either coffee, aggregate earnings from banana and sugar, or natural rubber. The total value of livestock exports by developing countries was 43% larger than the aggregate export earnings from cereals, pulses, oilseeds and oilcakes; and it was 7% larger than earnings from all exports of fruits and vegetables. Income of developing countries from the export of livestock products has thus substantially increased in the past 10-15 years. Furthermore, the equity distribution of benefits from livestock production is probably similar to that of coffee and cacao, where many small producers share in the economic returns.
Key Functions of Livestock
While the livestock sector is faced with new opportunities and challenges, there are also important functions of livestock which will remain important. Through its contribution to income generation, animal production is an efficient entry point for rural development and poverty alleviation. Livestock are a significant component of the livelihood of more than 60% of the world's poor. Animal production provides direct and continuous cash flow through sales of milk, meat and eggs. Indirect income is contributed through draught power and transportation. Livestock can also generate other employment.
The relationship between the consumption of food of animal origin and human health is the subject of much debate. At low levels of intake of food from animals, however, as observed in the developing world, an increase of the consumption of such food commodities is known to be nutritionally beneficial, especially for children, due to the content and availability of micronutrients (minerals and vitamins) and of essential amino-acids. Therefore, if achieved, increased per caput intake of foods of animal origin in developing countries should improve the nutritional status of people there.
Livestock contribute to achieving more efficient and more sustainable resource use through enhanced energy and nutrient cycles. For instance, animal manure increases soil fertility, soil structure and water-holding capacity. About two-thirds of the world's walking crops - livestock - are utilised in fanning systems in developing countries where nutrients are scarce or limiting.
The livestock component in agricultural land use thus may be viewed as a crucial biophysical and socio-economic linchpin of organic and mineral nutrient cycling for the maintenance of resilience and productivity of the natural resource base, primarily, but not exclusively, in complex land use systems.
Thus, the integration of crops and livestock represents the main avenue for intensification of food production in most regions, but especially - and increasingly - in the more humid areas. Mixed fanning provides farmers with the opportunity to reduce risks and to add value to available labour and natural resources, while exploiting vital synergies between animal and crop components for the production of marketable surpluses. However, in developing regions with increasing human populations, mixed farming systems have a negative nutrient balance, and deficits are only partially covered by a flow of nutrients from grazing areas to cropland. As population pressure increases, so does the crop-to-grazing-land ratio and, where other nutrient sources are not available, soil fertility gaps tend to widen.
Risks Associated with Livestock
The livestock sector continues to be associated with substantial risks. Degradation of natural resources is a major threat, varying from land degradation (e.g., in overstocked grassland), deforestation (e.g., for ranching), erosion of biodiversity (both plant and animal genetic resources), human health hazards related to animal production, and nutrient imbalances or waste production, according to production system and policy framework. Livestock are also associated - through the emission of greenhouse gases - with global climate change and fears that tropical livestock diseases may move to currently temperate regions. Competition between food and feed, technological change, often implying less employment, are other risks which can disrupt the search for equity.
In addition, animal diseases emerge or re-emerge and remain important risks in production. The main driving forces are increasing livestock densities, changing ecologies, different movements of humans, animals and livestock products, changing settlement patterns and changing food chains. Increased global trade in livestock and livestock products imply substantially increased risks of cross-boundary disease transmission.
The animal health industry is adjusting dynamically to these challenges with an expected annual growth of 4-6% up to the year 2010. Priority issues addressed are linked to epidemic diseases, sustainability of prophylactic and routine chemotherapy, food-chain-based quality control and food safety.
Building a Tropical Animal Agriculture Research Agenda
The above summary of dynamic developments amounts to a drastic - if not revolutionary - shift in global food supply for the human population. These developments are associated with very substantial structural changes in production, processing, marketing and policy frameworks and with significant new opportunities and risks. Large investments in research are required to guide this process and help protect it from inherent risks.
Such research is to be determined by the livestock functions of providing food security, contributing to alleviate poverty, protecting the environment and conserving the natural resource base, and securing public health.
In addition to the dynamic changes affecting the livestock sector itself, there are several general trends which need to be taken into account when animal agriculture research is to be successfully positioned.
There is a worldwide tendency to redefine the role of the state and to promote wider participation of the private sector in economic life rather than the state itself being involved in production activities. As a consequence of this tendency here is a strong pressure to emphasise market-oriented animal research and to connect research to product development. Developing country NARS are rapidly undergoing a corresponding change in orientation.
Continuing globalisation and trade liberalisation not only significantly reduce domestic policy options, but also emphasise the concepts of comparative advantage and competitiveness. NARS agendas will continue to be redefined to suit these market forces. This trend exacerbates the dichotomy between subsistence, sustainability and equity-oriented research aspects on the one hand, and productivity enhancing, market-oriented research aspects on the other.
The fact that a rapidly increasing share of the population of developing countries will live in cities has major implications for the role of agriculture in general, and animal agriculture in particular, both in rural and peri-urban areas. Given that the absolute number of poor people in urban areas is much higher than in rural areas and continues to increase rapidly, the risk is great that a bias against the rural poor will prevail in poverty alleviation strategies.
Risks arising from pressure on natural resources, in particular genetic resources, water and land, and from degradation of the natural resource base are likely to increase as competition for resource use intensifies, particularly where market forces fail to ensure efficient resource management. Biological diversity will continue to be threatened as traditional cultivars and breeds are abandoned, deforestation continues and habitats are lost. Some 30% of livestock breeds worldwide are already at the point of extinction.
Technological developments will occur in all areas, but will not be equally accessible to all countries, which may influence their ability to compete in global markets. Technological advances are likely to be important in the areas of biotechnology, information technology and communication. Agricultural research will become increasingly globalised, with the private sector conducting most biotechnology research. The needs of resource-poor farmers in developing countries are unlikely to be addressed adequately by the private sector. This implies the need for the public sector, including international institutions such as ILRI, to fill the gap.
The impact of biotechnology in agricultural technological systems is amplified by the growing acceptance of intellectual property rights all over the world. As a consequence, the adherence to and the implications of the concept of 'public good', traditionally associated with international research, may need to be reconsidered. This may decide whether centres such as ILRI can be successful agents in this market.
A new IFPRI study on investment trends in agricultural research and development confirms slowing growth in agricultural R&D spending. The study also notes a slow-down of growth in international agricultural R&D spending, detects a shift in industrialised vs. developing country shares of total R&D spending in favour of the industrialised countries and, therefore, documents a widening of the agricultural research intensity gap.
In addition to these general trends, animal agriculture research is faced with widespread reservations related with the association between livestock and resource degradation and between the consumption of foods of animal origin and human health problems.
The IFPRI study pays particular attention to Africa where on the one hand there was a significant increase in the number and qualifications of scientists but, on the other hand, a precipitous decline in support per scientist and a very significant increase in the external donor share of total and operational funding. In Africa, therefore, more than in Asia and LAC, the sustainability of the NARS as main partners for ILRI is threatened.
In the ever more complex and dynamic external environment in which ILRI has to work, it is of paramount importance that the Centre conveys a compelling vision of its raison d'être. The basis of this vision is a careful analysis of the major forces driving the external environment, consideration of its comparative advantages and considerations of developmental needs.
In the design of the Centre's strategy, there is much justification for emphasising market-driven elements and to link them effectively to the relevant collaborative framework on the basis of comparative institutional advantages. This will provide the Centre with the necessary recognition as a successful market participant, with international acceptance as a centre of excellence in international livestock research, and with the institutional strength to embark on essential activities which may not be as vigorously supported by market forces.
International animal agriculture research, as mandated to ILRI by the CGIAR, is expected to be at the centre of the global endeavour to provide tomorrow's solutions to the critical problems of the rapidly expanding and changing livestock sector. With its global mandate, therefore, ILRI is best placed to emphasise strategic research dimensions in the supply of products, methodologies and technologies in the areas of biotechnology and genomics applied to livestock and their diseases, and to prepare for the post-genomics era in livestock research. Strategic animal nutrition research is the second element of this international agenda to underpin biophysically enhanced livestock production.
It is therefore argued in this report that ILRI is likely to be best positioned in this context in addressing the improvement of tropical animal health and production in an integrated manner; this will be achieved by focusing - on the biological side - on genetic, diagnostic, epidemiological and nutrition technologies and resources, and - on the production systems side - on carefully selected, dynamic, market-oriented animal production systems (e.g., dairy systems). Such research efforts need to be complemented by livestock policy, systems analysis and impact analysis research. This agenda will strategically serve the livestock functions in its focal areas of poverty alleviation, food security, health, and environment.
