CROP DIVERSIFICATION IN INDIA - C.R. Hazra*

* Agriculture Commissioner, Department of Agriculture and Cooperation, Ministry of Agriculture, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi, India.

India is a country of about one billion people. More than 70 percent of India's population lives in rural areas where the main occupation is agriculture. Indian agriculture is characterized by small farm holdings. The average farm size is only 1.57 hectares. Around 93 percent of farmers have land holdings smaller than 4 ha and they cultivate nearly 55 percent of the arable land. On the other hand, only 1.6 of the farmers have operational land holdings above 10 ha and they utilize 17.4 percent of the total cultivated land. Due to diverse agro-climatic conditions in the country, a large number of agricultural items are produced. Broadly, these can be classified into two groups - foodgrains crops and commercial crops. Due to the challenge of feeding our vast population and the experience of food shortages in the pre-independence era, 'self reliance' in foodgrains has been the cornerstone of our policies in the last 50 years. Around 66 percent of the total cultivated area is under foodgrain crops (cereals and pulses). Concurrently, commercial agriculture developed for whatever reasons in the pre-independent phase also kept flourishing during the post independent period. Commercial agriculture not only catered to the domestic market but has also been one of the major earners of foreign exchange for the country.

Crop diversification is intended to give a wider choice in the production of a variety of crops in a given area so as to expand production related activities on various crops and also to lessen risk. Crop diversification in India is generally viewed as a shift from traditionally grown less remunerative crops to more remunerative crops. The crop shift (diversification) also takes place due to governmental policies and thrust on some crops over a given time, for example creation of the Technology Mission on Oilseeds (TMO) to give thrust on oilseeds production as a national need for the country's requirement for less dependency on imports. Market infrastructure development and certain other price related supports also induce crop shift. Often low volume high-value crops like spices also aid in crop diversification. Higher profitability and also the resilience/stability in production also induce crop diversification, for example sugar cane replacing rice and wheat. Crop diversification and also the growing of large number of crops are practiced in rainfed lands to reduce the risk factor of crop failures due to drought or less rains. Crop substitution and shift are also taking place in the areas with distinct soil problems. For example, the growing of rice in high water table areas replacing oilseeds, pulses and cotton; promotion of soybean in place of sorghum in vertisols (medium and deep black soils) etc.

2. CROP PRODUCTION AND ECONOMICS SCENARIO

The share of the agriculture sector in the total GDP has declined rapidly (24.2 percent) after 1980/81 (34.8 percent) and this trend will continue. By 2020, the share of agriculture in the total GDP of the country is likely to be reduced to 15 percent due to faster development of non-agriculture sectors. The agriculture sector at present employs 60 percent of the country's work force. With the development of alternative sources of employment in the rural areas, viz., agro industries, supportive infrastructure, etc., it is hoped that the share of population dependent on agriculture will come down, though not commensurately, by the year 2020. It is hoped that 45-50 percent of the population will be dependent on agriculture by that time.

India's performance during the post-independence period has been a matter of pride and satisfaction. The agricultural sector has left behind the era of shortages and dependence on imports and arrived at a stage of self-sufficiency and occasional surpluses. The Green, White, Yellow and Blue revolutions have been landmarks that have been claimed and recognized the world over. India is now the largest producer of wheat, fruits, cashew nut, milk and tea in the world and second largest producer of vegetables and fruits. India is the largest producer, consumer and exporter of spices in the world and the largest exporter of cashew. Foodgrains production has increased four-fold since independence, from 51 million tonnes (Mt) during 1950/51 to 203 Mt during 1998/99. The scourge of severe food shortages is now a thing of the past as is the dependence on imports. India's agriculture has passed through four distinct phases of strategy: a) starting with the intensification of efforts in identified areas, using traditional technology and expansion of area during the pre-Green Revolution period; b) through a new strategy of use of modern inputs and high yielding varieties in irrigated areas during the late sixties and the seventies, (Green Revolution); c) further through a period of greater focus on management of linkages and infrastructure, such as, marketing, trade and institution building; and, d) to an era of liberalization and relaxation of controls during the nineties. The journey has been arduous but rewarding. The agriculture sector has been successful over the past five decades in keeping pace with the rising food demand of a growing population (already crossed one billion in May, 2000). This sector provides raw materials to the major industries of the country which are largely agro-based like cotton, sugar, etc. It contributes nearly 16 percent of the country's total export.

India has made tremendous progress in the agricultural sector over the last 50 years. From 'hand to mouth' conditions in the early sixties, we have not only become self reliant in foodgrains but have acquired sufficient resilience to tide over the adverse conditions. Wheat production has increased around 10 times and rice production 4 times during this period. These achievements are the result of a policy framework of improving rural infrastructure including irrigation, research, extension, provision of agricultural inputs at reasonable prices, and marketing support through minimum price mechanism.

In spite of the impressive achievements, the Indian agricultural sector continues to face poor infrastructure conditions. Less than 36 percent of the cultivated land is under any assured irrigation system. Farmers on the remaining two thirds of the land are completely dependent on rainfall, which is also greatly characterized by large variations in terms of precipitation both spatially and in time. For a large majority of farmers in different parts of the country gains from application of science and technology in agriculture have yet to be realized. As a result, the productivity levels of many major crops in India do not compare very favourably with the yields obtained in agriculturally advanced countries (Table 1). Further, these factors coupled with high illiteracy constrain the farmer's ability to shift to more remunerative cropping patterns in response to market signals. Therefore, their capacity to take advantage of the opportunities presented by liberalization of trade is limited. The country's agriculture has gained in strength and resilience since independence, although growth in agriculture is highly skewed over regions and crops. However, the agriculture sector in India is now faced with intense internal and external pressures arising from the impact of policies of economic liberalization. Efficient and effective management of agriculture will be crucial in the years to come for acquiring enduring self-reliance and ensuring sustainable growth with an emphasis on consideration of equity.

3. PATTERNS OF CROP DIVERSIFICATION

3.1 Crop Diversification in the Indian Perspective

With the advent of modern agricultural technology, especially during the period of the Green Revolution in the late sixties and early seventies, there is a continuous surge for diversified agriculture in terms of crops, primarily on economic considerations. The crop pattern changes, however, are the outcome of the interactive effect of many factors which can be broadly categorized into the following five groups:

a) Resource related factors covering irrigation, rainfall and soil fertility.

b) Technology related factors covering not only seed, fertilizer, and water technologies but also those related to marketing, storage and processing.

c) Household related factors covering food and fodder self-sufficiency requirement as well as investment capacity.

d) Price related factors covering output and input prices as well as trade policies and other economic policies that affect these prices either directly or indirectly.

e) Institutional and infrastructure related factors covering farm size and tenancy arrangements, research, extension and marketing systems and government regulatory policies.

What is most notable is the change in the relative importance of these factors over time. From a very generalized perspective, Indian agriculture is increasingly getting influenced more and more by economic factors. This need not be surprising because irrigation expansion, infrastructure development, penetration of rural markets, development and spread of short duration and drought resistant crop technologies have all contributed to minimizing the role of non-economic factors in crop choice of even small farmers. What is more, the reform initiatives undertaken in the context of the ongoing agricultural liberalization and globalization policies are also going to further strengthen the role of price related economic incentives in determining crop composition both at the micro and macro levels. Obviously, such a changing economic environment will also ensure that government price and trade policies will become still more powerful instruments for directing area allocation decisions of farmers, aligning thereby the crop pattern changes in line with the changing demand-supply conditions. In a condition where agricultural growth results more from productivity improvement than from area expansion, the increasing role that price related economic incentives play in crop choice can also pave the way for the next stage of agricultural evolution where growth originates more and more from value-added production.

3.2 Consequences of Crop Pattern Changes

Turning now to the socio-economic and environmental consequences of crop pattern changes, the Green Revolution technologies have fomented, among other things, an increasing tendency towards crop specialization and commercialization of agriculture. While these developments have positive effects on land/labour productivity and net farm income, they have also endangered a number of undesirable side effects like reduced farm employment and crop imbalances. Although the expansion of commercialized agriculture has fomented new sets of rural non-farm activities and strengthened the rural-urban growth linkages, it has also weakened the traditional inter-sectoral linkages between the crop and livestock sectors. Besides, crop pattern changes also lead to serious environmental consequences that take such forms as groundwater depletion, soil fertility loss and waterlogging and salinity - all of which can reduce the productive capacity and growth potential of agriculture over the long-term. A classical example is the rice-wheat system in Northwestern India replacing traditional crops like pulses, oilseeds and cotton.

3.2.1 Crop Pattern Changes: A Temporal Analysis

The temporal analysis of the changes in crop pattern is observed both at the national and state level. For the purpose of the present study, crop pattern changes at the all India level are evaluated by considering the area share of crops and crop groups at four time points capturing, respectively, the triennium ending (TE) averages of areas in 1966/67, 1976/77, 1986/87 and 1996/97. These time points have been selected so as to capture the major events and stages in the evolution of Indian agriculture which are of direct relevance to the purpose of this study.

The pre-Green Revolution situation is represented by the 1966/67 period. The post-Green Revolution situation is represented, on the other hand, by three sub-periods. These periods have been chosen deliberately to highlight the temporal differences in the factors contributing to agricultural growth. In the first of these three post-Green Revolution periods, i.e., 1966/67 to 1976/77, the impact of the Green Revolution has mainly been on wheat, especially in the irrigation-wise better endowed Northwestern parts of India. But in the second period, i.e., 1976/77 to 1986/87, the new technologies have expanded to other regions and also covered crops such as rice. During this period, the Southern and Eastern regions showed remarkable improvement in agricultural growth and productivity. More or less during the same period, the benefits of the new crop and irrigation technologies that were confined earlier to large and medium sized farms have also started percolating to the small farms. The third period, i.e. 1986/87 to 1996/97, is characterized by a number of policy changes including the launching of the Technology Mission on Oilseeds (TMO) as well as price support and stabilization policies for oilseed crops. During this period there is also a marked shift in the pattern of agricultural investment in favour of the private sector. This period not only covers such important policy changes as unleashed by agricultural liberalization policies but also represents the consolidation phase of rural infrastructure. Since these four periods can capture well the changes in the set of factors that affect crop pattern, they can provide a better analytical framework for evaluating both the nature and technical context of crop pattern shifts observed not only at the national level but also at the state level.

3.2.2 Crop Pattern Changes: Analysis at the all India Level

The analysis of crop pattern changes to be attempted at the macro level (national) will focus on three main aspects. These aspects are: a) the nature and direction of area shifts across crops and crop groups observed through time, b) the implications of these shifts for crop diversification and balance in the inter-crop allocation of existing and additional areas brought under cultivation, and c) the output and productivity impact of crop pattern changes.

Temporal Changes in the Area Share of Crops

The temporal behaviour of crop pattern changes at the all India level can be seen from Table 2 and Table 3 that show, respectively, the area share of main crop groups and major crops for the four periods. Though obvious, it needs to be stated that the changing area share of crops is due as much to shift in area under other competing or alternative crops as to the relative area allocation of fresh areas brought under cultivation. In any case, the changing area share of crops does capture the ongoing changes in the comparative advantage calculus of farmers. The changes in the comparative advantage of crops reflect, in reality, the ongoing changes in relative prices of inputs and outputs, production conditions (including irrigation expansion), development and spread of new crop and farm technologies, extension and input support policies and trade policies and domestic regulations. As such, the changing area share of crop pattern, though looking deceptively simple, becomes a useful tool for understanding the direction in which crop pattern changes are influenced by the variations in the comparative advantage of crops and crop groups (Tables 4 and 5).

Returning to Tables 2 and 3, both tables provide evidence for a substantial area shift from cereals to non-cereals. Although cereals gained a marginal increase in area share in the first decade of the Green Revolution, their area and share declined gradually thereafter. Between 1966/67 and 1996/97, 3.35 percent of the gross cultivated area (GCA) - representing approximately about 5.7 million hectares (m/ha) - has shifted from cereal crops to non-cereal crops. Since the area share of pulses taken as a group also declined by 1.57 percent during the same period, the area share of foodgrains as a group declined by 4.92 percent during 1966-97. In area terms, the shift from foodgrains to non-foodgrains involves an approximate area of about 8.36 m/ha. While cereals and pulses have lost area, the major gainers of this area shift are the non-foodgrain crops especially oilseeds. The area share of oilseeds as a group that has gone up by 4.08 percent accounts for about 83 percent of the 8.36 m/ha involved in the area shift between 1966/67 and 1996/97. As we consider the share of individual crops within cereals, although the share of cereals as a group has declined, the area share of rice has increased continuously over all the four periods. Wheat, although having a declining area share until 1986/87, also gained in its share when the entire period is considered. Thus, the area loss of cereals can be attributed entirely to the declining area share of coarse cereals, especially sorghum, pearl millet, barely and small millets. It can be noted that even within coarse cereals, the area share of maize shows a marginal improvement over the years. Within oilseeds, the crops showing steady improvement in their area share are: rapeseed and mustard, soybean and sunflower. Among these three oilseeds gaining in area share, rapeseed and mustard are substantially grown as intercrops with wheat. On the other hand, the area shares of other oilseeds including groundnut (that has a dominant area share within oilseeds) but excluding coconut, which is more a plantation crop than field crop, have either fluctuated or declined. The area share of groundnut, though improved during the last period, has declined as compared to its share in the pre-Green Revolution period. But, the declining area share of crops - especially those with only a marginal change in their area share - need not necessarily imply a decline in the actual area under these crops. Since the Gross Cropped Area (GCA) is constantly increasing over time, partly through an expansion of net sown areas as in the initial stages of the Green Revolution and partly through increasing intensity of cropping mainly by irrigation expansion, the declining area share can coincide with an increase in absolute increase in the area under crops. This can be seen from Tables 4 and 5 showing actual area under various crops and their groups. Although the increase in the area share of other commercial crops is not as dramatic as that of oilseeds, it is still notable because of its implications for the direction of Indian agriculture. But, among these other commercial crops that cover fibres, spices, fruits and vegetables, and other field crops such as tobacco and sugar cane and plantation crops, only spices, fruits and vegetables show a steady improvement in their area shares, whereas others show mostly a declining trend. This is particularly true for fibres and other field crops that have over four fifths of the total area under the broad group of other commercial crops. However, sugar cane, included in the category of other field crops, shows an increase in its area share. This is also true for cotton included in the fibre category. While all spice crops show a gradual increase in their area share, only three of the six crops included in the fruits and vegetables category show a gain in their area share over the years. These crops are banana, potato and onion.

3.3 Success Story in Crop Diversification

It is clear that most of the area shifts that occurred during the three decades between 1966/67 and 1996/97 is from coarse cereals to oilseeds. Three notable aspects of this area shift towards oilseeds can be noted. First, most of these area shifts have occurred particularly during the decade ending 1996/97. A protective trade environment, favourable price policy and the connecting of the Technology Mission on Oilseeds (TMO) during this period have all enhanced the comparative advantage of oilseeds. As can be seen from Table 2, the area share of oilseeds that increased just by a percentage each during the two decades before 1986/87 has risen suddenly by 43 percent during the decade ending 1996/97. Second, the area shift during this period comes mainly from barley and pulses other than pigeon pea. Since most of those crops losing their area share are usually grown under rainfed conditions where oilseeds can also be grown, the area shift can be said to involve mostly rainfed areas, although comparative advantage and crop rotation considerations often favour oilseeds even in groundwater irrigated areas. Thirdly, as can be seen from Table 3, there is also a significant area shift within oilseed crops. For instance, while the area shares of rapeseed and mustard, sunflower and soybean are increasing steadily, those of sesamum, linseed and nigerseed are declining gradually. Thus, the area shift has favoured only a sub-sector within the oilseed sector partly because of constant changes in the comparative advantage of different oilseeds and partly because of the impact of changing consumers' preferences on the relative demand of oilseeds.

3.4 Crop Diversification and Composition

As noted already, area shifts and crop pattern changes can lead either to crop specialization or to crop diversification. The area share of foodgrains increased during 1967-76 due partly to their yield advantages created by irrigation expansion and Green Revolution technologies and partly to government policies pursued to encourage food production and eliminate food imports. As a result, there was a tendency towards cereal centered specialization. But, later when increased productivity of foodgrains, especially cereals, made it possible to allocate more area to other crops such as oilseeds with a severe supply shortage, the specialization tendency witnessed earlier has given room for overall crop diversification. Even within such an overall crop diversification, it is also possible to see specialization tendencies within each crop group. For instance, within cereals, the declining share of coarse cereals and increasing share of wheat and rice indicates a rice and wheat centered specialization. Such a specialization has become possible because within the achievement of self-sufficiency, mainly through an expanding production of wheat and rice, the food implication of coarse cereals has declined almost coinciding with their declining demand prompted by an increasingly incurring income level. On the other hand, within oilseeds, even though groundnut still has a dominant area share, the growth of area under rapeseed and mustard, sunflower and soybean indicates an ongoing structural change leading to diversification within the oilseed sector. The issue of crop diversification, although considered in area terms, assumes significance in view of its effects on the supply-demand balance of main crops and crop groups. The rice and wheat-centered specialization, for instance, indicates an increase in the supply of wheat and rice but a reduced supply of coarse cereals. Since the demand for coarse cereals is declining and that for wheat and rice is increasing due to changes in the income pattern, the changes in their supply are actually necessary to achieve the required demand-supply balance. A similar line of argument can also be extended to other crops where in addition to domestic demand, international demand and supply also assume significance.

Clearly, during the Green Revolution period, the foodgrains category has evinced an increasing tendency towards specialization with an unbalanced area composition, whereas the non-foodgrains category has shown an increasing tendency to diversify with an improved balance in their area composition. But, during 1976-97 the non-foodgrains category has also caught up with the specialization tendency and area imbalance that characterized foodgrains throughout the entire period. The reason for the specialization tendency within foodgrains is rather obvious in view of the declining area share of coarse cereals and the increasing area share of rice and wheat. The changing area share of crops can also explain the specialization tendencies observed among the non-foodgrains. As we have seen in the context of Tables 2 and 3, the area shares of oilseeds and other commercial crops have increased especially during the post Green Revolution period characterized by a prices and market-responsive agriculture inevitable in the aftermath of achieving food self-sufficiency. It is important to note, however, that oilseeds are more diversified with an enhanced balance in their area composition. Within foodgrains, on the other hand, while cereals tend towards specialization with an increasing imbalance in their area composition, pulses evince a tendency to diversify with a declining imbalance in their area composition. The latter result is mainly due to the fact that the area shares of the dominant pulses such as gram have declined to give room for other pulses such as pigeon pea. But it should be noted that diversification and area balance achieved by pulses have occurred only with a reduced area share. Among the non-foodgrain crops, spices are notable not only for their increasing tendency towards diversification but also for a declining imbalance in their area composition. In contrast, fibres, fruits and vegetables, other field crops and plantation crops have all evinced a specialization tendency especially after 1986/87.

3.5 Production and Productivity Effects

The evaluation of crop pattern changes and their implications for crop diversification and area composition cannot be completed without considering their output and productivity effects. The production and productivity effects of area shifts can be evaluated by considering both the growth rates of output, area, and yield of various crop groups as well as the crop group specific patterns evident in the relative contributions of area and yield to overall output growth. Table 6 shows the growth rates and sources of growth for the major crop groups at the all India level for the three periods, i.e., 1966-76, 1976-86 and 1987-97. The shift of area from cereals (especially coarse cereals) has not led to any decline in their output thanks to an impressive performance of their yield levels. The productivity improvement in cereals has been such that it compensates even for the area loss of cereals occurred during 1986-97. Notably, in the case of coarse cereals that have suffered a heavy area loss ever since 1976, yield improvement has been substantial especially in the last period. As a result their output growth, which was only marginal during 1976-86, has jumped to 1.14 percent during 1986-97. For pulses, on the other hand, even though area growth has increased from 0.21 to 0.32 percent between the last two periods, their output growth turns out to be negative due to a fall in their yield levels. Foodgrains showing a steady rise in their output growth have a story similar to that of cereals as the contributions of their yield growth is increasing; whereas, those of their area growth are declining even to become negative in the recent period. Turning to the growth rates and growth sources of oilseeds, it is useful to distinguish the trend observed for the three oilseeds, i.e., rapeseed and mustard, sunflower and soybean from that observed for the oilseeds as a whole. This is because of the fact that the area shares of these three oilseeds have grown tremendously since 1976. Due to their faster expansion, their combined area share of 6.85 percent observed at present is higher than the combined share of both groundnut and sesamum, which dominated the oilseed sector in the pre-Green Revolution era. While the output growth of nine oilseeds has been impressive as compared to that of other crop groups, it is not as impressive as the combined output growth of the three fast growing oilseeds. However, there is a marked difference in the sources of output growth between the nine oilseeds and its sub-group. Although the contribution of area growth dominates that of yield growth in both cases, the contributions of area growth are far higher in the case of the three oilseeds as compared to that in the case of nine oilseeds. It should be noted that it is the higher area growth observed in the case of the three oilseeds, which has also compensated for the declining area share of some of the traditional oilseeds such as sesamum, linseed and nigerseed. Since the yield growth of the three oilseeds is also higher than that obtained for the nine oilseeds, the productivity improvement in the case of former is also relatively higher than that of the traditional oilseeds. There is also a notable shift in the sources of output growth among the commercial crops (i.e., crops other than cereals, pulses, and oilseeds) as yield growth that dominated over the area growth during 1966-1986 becomes dominated in turn by a area growth during 1986-97.

The implications are clear that area shifts from crops need not be a problem as long as their productivity levels are increasing faster to compensate for their declining area share. This is what has happened especially in the case of coarse cereals that have been a net donor of area to oilseeds and other commercial crops. Despite their negative area growth of -4.36 percent, they managed to maintain a positive output growth of 1.14 percent thanks to an impressive yield growth of 5.51 percent. Since this pattern is more or less repeated in the case of cereals as a whole, it is reasonable to say that the area shift has not affected food security. On the other hand, since the area shifts were from low-value coarse cereals to high-value oilseeds and since such shifts were accompanied by yield improvements within the oilseed sector, the area shifts have not only increased the overall output of edible oils but also contributed to an enhancement of the income level of farmers. In this sense, the area shifts have actually contributed to broaden the foundation of food security.

4. CROP DIVERSIFICATION AS A STRATEGY FOR VARIOUS NATIONAL COMMITMENTS

4.1 Food and Nutritional Security and Poverty Alleviation

The agricultural growth rate of around 2.7 percent per annum in the post-independence period was much higher than the negligible growth rate of 0.3 percent per annum in the first half of this century. It is not only in the areas of foodgrain production but also the production of commercial crops like cotton, oilseeds, sugar cane, fruits and vegetables as well as livestock products and fisheries have recorded significant increases since independence. Poverty eradication is one of the major objectives of plan development. The magnitude of the problem is quite staggering. The incidence of poverty declined from 54.9 percent in 1973/74 to 36 percent in 1993/94. The absolute number of population did not decline much throughout this period of 20 years. There were 321 million poor in 1973/74 and 320 million in 1993/94. In the rural areas, the corresponding numbers were 261 million and 244 million. The land resources are limited and the average size of holding in India is only 1.57 ha for the census year of 1990/91. The main determinants of poverty are: i) lack of income and purchasing power contributable to lack of productive employment; ii) the continuous increase in price of food, specially foodgrains which account for 70-80 percent of the consumption; and iii) inadequacy of social infrastructure, affecting the quality of life of the people and their employability.

The National Agenda for Governance of the present government has given top priority to doubling food production in the next 10 years. The food includes foodgrains (rice, wheat, coarse cereals, pulses), oilseeds, sugar (sugar cane), fruits and vegetables, meat, milk, and fish. The Action Plan envisages a detailed strategy and specific problems of productivity to substantially increase the supply of various food items in such a way that the demand for such items for the entire population is comfortably met and some exportable surplus also becomes available. The development strategy to be perused in the medium term has been consciously interwoven with the country's food security concern.

4.2 Natural Resource Management for Sustainable Agricultural Development

It is known fact that there is little scope for further expansion of the net sown area (142 m/ha) and that land scarcity will become an acute feature of the rural economy. Water is a precious national asset and there are several concerns regarding water resources in the country. Therefore, a judicious use of land and water resources will have to be the central theme for sustainability of agricultural growth. There has been a growing concern in recent years about the deteriorating conditions of soil health and water resources due to improper management and pollution. The deterioration in land and water resources has been in the form of land degradation, waterlogging and decline in watertable. There is a greater need to have an integrated approach in the management of plant nutrients, chemicals and taking effective measures to deal with the overall pollution problems. There are several possible technologies and alternatives to reduce the use of chemicals in agriculture. These alternatives are not perfect substitutes to chemicals but adoption of these can substantially reduce the adverse impact on environment. Proper land and water management policies would reduce environmental degradation. Community and village institutions should be encouraged to participate in protecting natural resources from degradation. Programmes for regeneration of land and water resources will be strengthened.

4.3 Agricultural Planning: an Area Approach

A new approach to agricultural planning - the Agro Climatic Regional Planning (ACRP) was put into action in 1988. This holistic approach digresses from the sectoral approach of planning practiced so far in the country. It explicitly recognizes the local resource endowments and constraints of the agro-climatically homogeneous regions, quite often cutting across the States. The ACRP can be considered as a bridge between the resource base and decentralized planning, which aims at providing a scientific support to planning for attainment of sustainability and having due consideration of basic resources and the local needs. The project was initiated by regionalizing the country into 15 zones/regions and later into 73 sub-regions and subsequently demarcation of sub-zone/region within a State using district as the lowest unit of analysis. The principles used for this sub-regionalization were those which relate intrinsically with the character of the agricultural economy like soil, climate, rainfall, etc. In a recent study, agro-climatic zones have been delineated into 4 agro-economic zones to address the issues of poverty, productivity and sustainability. These agro-economic zones are: i) High Productivity Zone (103 districts); ii) Low Productivity - High Potential Zone (181 districts); iii) Low Productivity Zone (179 districts); and iv) Ecologically Fragile Zone (Himalayan and Desert areas).

5. CHALLENGES, OPPORTUNITIES AND PROSPECTS OF CROP DIVERSIFICATION

5.1 Constraints in Crop Diversification

Crop diversification in the country is taking the form of increased areas under commercial crops including vegetables and fruits since independence. However, this has gained momentum in the last decade favouring increased area under vegetables and fruits and also to some extent on commercial crops like sugar cane, cotton and oilseeds crops specially soybean. The major problems and constraints in crop diversification are primarily due to the following reasons with varied degrees of influence:

i. Over 117 m/ha (63 percent) of the cropped area in the country is completely dependent on rainfall.

ii. Sub-optimal and over-use of resources like land and water resources, causing a negative impact on the environment and sustainability of agriculture.

iii. Inadequate supply of seeds and plants of improved cultivars.

iv. Fragmentation of land holding less favouring modernization and mechanization of agriculture.

v. Poor basic infrastructure like rural roads, power, transport, communications etc.

vi. Inadequate post-harvest technologies and inadequate infrastructure for post-harvest handling of perishable horticultural produce.

vii. Very weak agro-based industry.

viii. Weak research - extension - farmer linkages.

ix. Inadequately trained human resources together with persistent and large scale illiteracy amongst farmers.

x. Host of diseases and pests affecting most crop plants.

xi. Poor database for horticultural crops.

xii. Decreased investments in the agricultural sector over the years.

With the advent of WTO and India being a member and signatory to GATT, the scenario of the agricultural sector will not be the same as that of past. With the liberalization of trade and providing the market access of agricultural produce between the different countries, the country will be required to promote much more diversified agriculture. For crops on which we have substantial area and production, specially foodgrains, the import market has to be insulated through increased productivity which gives us a kind of comparative advantage and also a level playing field so that large scale importation is contained and farmers interests are protected. The crops which are traditionally exported like basmati rice and spices and condiments also need to be supported in terms of area expansion and quality improvement to look towards much more opportunity for export. Crop diversification in the areas of certain tropical fruits and also a few vegetables also need support for both production and post-harvest handling in terms of their export opportunity. Accelerated growth in fruits and vegetables production is also required for improved nutrition of the country's population. In future, with improved living standards along with increased purchasing power, more and more people will look for nutritional and quality foods which will also call for greater crop diversification. There are some production areas such as food crops, plantation crops, poultry, dairy, sugar, cotton and oilseeds in which India has made its mark. There are some in which its emerging strength is already evident - sericulture, marine and inland fisheries for example. There are also others which now attract less attention, but in which the competitive advantages that India possesses can put it on the top of the world. No country grows such a wide range of fruits, vegetables, and flowers and in such abundance as India and yet it has no record worth mentioning in horticultural exports. The rich variety when processed and marketed, can help India take care of the health needs of its population besides being major export commodities.

5.3 Emerging Technology and Crop Diversification

It is being increasingly realized that agriculture is no longer a subsistence activity carried out by peasant cultivators, but rather an enterprise and manufacturer of biomass using land, water, genetic material and the latest in technology. The agriculture of the twenty first century will increasingly be a farmers' entrepreneurship harnessing technologies to optimize returns from his land and investments he makes on it. Biotechnology and genetic engineering in crops with focus on primary productivity and also on many quality traits will go a long way to improving the yield and quality of many important crop plants. With the advent of such emerging technologies and consequent scope for increased economic returns, the diversification in favour of such crops will be the future focus. Many other related technologies and their adoption will also inject an added dimension in crop diversification. Decision support systems, governmental policies, geographic information system, application of information technology leading to market information etc., will also lead to crop diversification primarily on economic considerations.

5.4 Research and Developmental Support for Crop Diversification

Future agriculture will be much more knowledge and skill based rather than the traditional subsistence agriculture. In the wake of globalization and opening up of the global market, there will be much more opportunity for entrepreneurship development in agriculture. This also calls for paradigm shifts in research and technology development and also the transfer of technology for successful crop diversification. The research system not only needs to address the issues connected with continuance and indulgence and knowledge in the areas of emerging technologies but also create a cadre of scientists through the continuous upgrade of skills and human resource development. The researchers also need to popularize the technologies, impart knowledge and skills to the extension functionaries for the transfer of technologies to the farmers. This knowledge-based farming will call for much more interaction between the researchers, extension workers and farmers. The fruits of the innovative technologies should reach the farmers at the earliest and also spread in the quickest possible time.

5.5 Institutional and Infrastructure Developments Towards Crop Diversification

To sustain and operationalize crop diversification, institutional support is required to the two thirds of the country's crop area which is rainfed. Crop diversification in terms of reducing the risk of rainfed farmers is also very vital to a country like India two thirds of the farmers are also resource poor. However, crop diversification in well endowed area is more of an economic consideration. The National Agricultural Research System with its Crop and Commodity based Institutions, Natural Research Management Based Institutions and State Agricultural Universities are jointly addressing the issues connected with the crop diversification. The government of India has also developed a counter support mechanism through the establishments of Crop Directorates for each of the major crops and groups of crops like Oilseeds and Pulses for developmental and technology transfer focus on each of these crops and commodities. These Directorates act as a coordinating agency between the research and development activities on the one hand and between the Federal Government at the central and Regional Governments at the State level for technology transfer and other promotional activities.

6. GOVERNMENT POLICIES AND STRATEGIES FOR CROP DIVERSIFICATION

Considering the importance of crop diversification in the overall developmental strategy in Indian agriculture, the government of India has taken several initiatives for agricultural development in general and crop diversification in particular. These initiatives are as follows:

i) Launching a Technology Mission for the Integrated Development of Horticulture in the Northeastern Region: The programme will establish effective linkages between research, production, extension, post-harvest management, processing, marketing and exports and bring about a rapid development of agriculture in the region.

ii) Implementing National Agriculture Insurance Scheme: The scheme will cover food crops and oilseeds and annual commercial and horticulture crops. Small and marginal farmers are eligible for 50 percent subsidy under the Scheme.

iii) Operationalizing Technology Mission on Cotton: The Technology Mission will have separate Mini-Missions on technology generation, product support and extension, market infrastructure and modernization of ginning and pressing units.

iv) Provision of Capital Subsidy of 25 percent for construction/modernization/expansion of cold storages and storages for horticultural produce.

v) Creation of Watershed Development Fund: At the National level for the development of Rainfed lands.

vi) Infrastructure Support for Horticultural Development with emphasis on Post-harvest Management.

vii) Strengthening Agricultural Marketing: Greater attention to be paid for development of a comprehensive, efficient and responsive marketing system for domestic marketing as well as exports by ensuring proper quality control and standardization.

viii) Seed Crop Insurance: A pilot scheme on Seed Crop Insurance has been launched which will cover the risk factor involved in production of seeds.

ix) Seed Bank Scheme: About 7-8 percent of certified seeds produced in the country will be kept in buffer stock to meet any eventualities arising out of drought, floods or any other form of natural calamities.

x) Cooperative Sector Reforms: Amendment to the National Cooperative Development Corporation (NCDC) Act, 1952, and Replacement of the Multi-State Cooperative Societies (MSCS) Act, 1984.

7. CONCLUSIONS

India, being a vast country of continental dimensions, presents wide variations in agroclimatic conditions. Such variations have led to the evolution of regional niches for various crops. Historically, regions were often associated with the crops in which they specialize for various agronomic, climatic, hydro-geological, and even, historical reasons. But, in the aftermath of technological changes encompassing bio-chemical and irrigation technologies, the agronomic niches are undergoing significant changes. With the advent of irrigation and new farm technologies, the yield level of most crops-especially that of cereals-has witnessed an upward shift making it possible to obtain a given level of output with reduced area or more output with a given level of area and creating thereby the condition for inter-crop area shift (diversification) without much disturbance in output level. Besides, as agriculture become drought proof and growth become more regionally balanced, there has been a reduction in the instability of agricultural output.

In the face of these new changes including the achievement of food self-sufficiency, the area shift that tended towards cereals in the immediate aftermath of the Green Revolution, has started moving in the opposite direction, i.e., from cereals to non-cereals.

Although these reverse area shifts actually took place in the mid-1970's as a part of the process of commercialization, they became more pronounced since the mid 1980's as a response partly to emerging supply deficit in edible oils and partly to the changing comparative advantage of crops. Since the recent trend in inter-crop area shifts has it origin in the price and trade policy changes of the 1980's, they indicate the increasing market influence on area allocation. The area under commercial crops has almost doubled in the last three decades. Among the foodgrain crops, the area under superior cereals, i.e., rice and wheat, is increasing; while that of coarse cereals (millets) is on decline. The area share of jute and allied fibres has also gone down substantially. Like any other economy, the share of agriculture in the GDP is also declining in India. Increase in income from the agriculture sector, further growth of non-crop sub-sectors within agriculture; faster growth of non-food grain crops; and faster growth of superior cereals among the food grains are all happening, but the pace of such change is far too slow. An accelerated pace of diversification to create positive import of higher income, higher employment and conservation and efficient use of natural resources emphasizes the need for efficient policies, especially in technological development, selective economic reforms and institutional change. A strategy of crucial importance is growth enhancing non-farm activities. This calls for investment in rural infrastructure and skill upgradation and it also implies a careful examination and adjustment of macro-policies, which influence the relative profitability of different activities and in turn determine the nature and pace of diversification. In order to ensure social equity, policies on structural adjustment and reforms must pay special attention to the band of marginal and small farmers and agricultural labourers. The direct benefits from diversification should reach these sections of the farmers.

Table 1. India's Yield as Percent of World Yield, 1996

Food Crops
India as % of World's	Rice	Wheat	Maize	Bajra	Jowar	Pulses
Average Yield	49%	98%	38%	72%	57%	73%
Highest Yield	30%	31%	19%	20%	18%	31%
Non-Food Crops
India as % of World's	Potatoes	Groundnut	Sugar cane	Sunflower seed	Rapeseed	Seed Cotton
Average Yield	98%	76%	109%	51%	65%	59%
Highest Yield	42%	36%	70%	27%	27%	34%

Table 2. All India: Temporal Change (percent) in the Area Share of Main Crops and Crop Groups, 1966/67 to 1996/97

No.	Crops	TE 1966/67	TE 1976/77	TE 1986/87	TE 1996/97
1	Rice	23.90	24.13	24.75	25.29
2	Wheat	11.99	10.01	9.62	15.03
3	Coarse Cereals	26.49	29.20	28.09	18.70
4	All Cereals	62.38	63.34	62.47	59.03
5	Gram & Pigeon Pea	7.26	6.48	6.25	6.30
6	Other Pulses	8.06	7.99	7.85	7.45
7	All Pulses	15.32	14.46	14.10	13.75
8	All Foodgrains	77.70	77.80	76.56	72.78
9	Sunflower & Soybean	0.54	0.79	0.91	0.77
10	All oilseeds	11.27	11.24	12.07	15.35
11	Fibres	6.28	5.25	5.18	5.72
12	Spices	0.64	0.83	1.02	1.12
13	Fruits & Vegetables	0.75	0.92	1.15	1.40
14	Other Field Crops	3.04	3.54	3.51	3.23
15	Plantation Crops	0.33	0.42	0.51	0.41
16	All Commercial Crops	11.03	10.96	11.36	11.87
17	All Non-Cereals	37.62	36.66	37.53	40.98

Table 3. All India: Temporal Change (percent) in the Area Share of 52 Major Crops, 1966/67 to 1996/97

Sl. No.	Crops	TE 1966/67	TE 1976/77	TE 1986/87	TE 1996/97
1	Rice	23.90	24.13	24.75	25.29
2	Wheat	11.99	10.01	9.62	15.03
3	Sorghum	1.82	1.65	0.77	6.75
4	Pearl Millet	8.03	7.00	6.52	5.81
5	Maize	3.23	3.73	3.51	3.60
6	Finger Millets	1.70	1.58	1.44	1.05
7	Small Millets	3.06	2.88	1.87	1.01
8	Barley	8.66	12.37	13.97	0.49
9	Gram	5.55	4.86	4.35	4.27
10	Pigeon Pea	1.71	1.62	1.90	2.04
11	Blackgram	0.00	1.33	1.85	0.62
12	Greengram	0.00	1.50	1.78	0.60
13	Horsegram	0.00	1.26	1.09	0.21
14	Peas & Beans	0.00	0.43	0.29	0.14
15	Lentil	0.00	0.57	0.63	0.22
16	Lathyrus	0.00	0.98	0.71	0.19
17	Mothbeans	0.00	1.21	0.86	0.12
18	Other Pulses	8.06	7.99	7.85	7.45
19	Groundnut	4.99	4.44	4.27	4.55
20	Castor	0.28	0.30	0.38	0.45
21	Sesamum	1.74	1.39	1.30	1.15
22	Rape & Mustard	1.97	2.11	2.34	3.82
23	Linseed	1.17	1.27	0.80	0.52
24	Safflower	0.21	0.42	0.55	0.43
25	Nigerseed	0.33	0.38	0.36	0.34
26	Sunflower	0.00	0.19	0.52	1.20
27	Soybean	0.00	0.06	0.82	1.83
28	Coconut	0.59	0.68	0.73	1.07
29	Cotton	5.39	4.54	4.38	5.11
30	Jute	0.54	0.41	0.56	0.46
31	Mesta	0.23	0.21	0.18	0.11
32	Sunnhemp	0.12	0.09	0.06	0.04
33	Pepper	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.11
34	Chillies	0.46	0.46	0.51	0.52
35	Ginger	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.04
36	Turmeric	0.04	0.05	0.06	0.08
37	Coriander	0.00	0.16	0.23	0.25
38	Cardamom	0.04	0.06	0.07	0.06
39	Garlic	0.00	0.02	0.04	0.06
40	Banana	0.14	0.14	0.18	0.25
41	Potato	0.31	0.38	0.51	0.68
42	Sweet Potato	0.12	0.15	0.11	0.08
43	Tapioca	0.18	0.24	0.17	0.15
44	Onion	0.00	0.00	0.16	0.23
45	Papaya	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.01
46	Sugar cane	1.73	1.77	1.78	2.39
47	Tobacco	0.27	0.25	0.25	0.24
48	Arecanut	0.09	0.11	0.11	0.15
49	Guarseed	0.95	1.41	1.37	0.45
50	Tea	0.23	0.23	0.24	0.25
51	Coffee	0.02	0.08	0.13	0.05
52	Rubber	0.07	0.11	0.13	0.10

Table 4. All India: Temporal Change in Area (thousand hectares) Composition of Crop Groups, 1966/67 to 1996/97

Sl. No.	Crops	TE 1966/67	TE 1976/77	TE 1986/87	TE 1996/97
1	Rice	35728	38625	41154	42978
2	Wheat	17930	16018	15995	25548
3	Coarse Cereals	39610	46741	46711	31788
4	All Cereals	93268	101384	103860	100314
5	Gram & Pigeon pea	10848	10367	10393	10712
6	Other Pulses	12057	12787	13044	12661
7	All Pulses	22905	23154	23437	23373
8	All Foodgrains	116172	124537	127297	123686
9	Sunflower & Soybeans	807	1270	1511	1310
10	All oilseeds	16848	17988	20071	27837
11	Fibres	9383	8403	8618	9716
12	Spices	950	1326	1695	1904
13	Fruits & Vegetables	1120	1480	1913	2382
14	Other Field Crops	4544	5665	5828	5486
15	Plantation Crops	489	677	840	691
16	All Non-Cereals	56238	58691	62402	71389
17	All Crops	149506	160075	166262	171703

Table 5. All India: Temporal Change (thousand hectares) in Area Composition of 52 Major Crops, 1966/67 to 1996/97

Sl. No.	Crops	TE 1966/67	TE 1976/77	TE 1986/87	TE 1996/97
1	Rice	35728	38625	41154	42978
2	Wheat	17930	16018	15995	25548
3	Sorghum	2716	2643	1282	11471
4	Pearl Millet	12010	11202	10846	9868
5	Maize	4830	5965	5840	6121
6	Ragi	2541	2530	2398	1790
7	Small Millets	4569	4606	3114	1713
8	Barley	12944	19795	23231	825
9	Gram	8296	7778	7231	7253
10	Pigeon Pea	2552	2589	3162	3459
11	Blackgram	-	2135	3082	1049
12	Greengram	-	2405	2967	1014
13	Horsegram	-	2012	1809	358
14	Peas & Beans	-	693	475	245
15	Lentil	-	914	1054	381
16	Lathyrus	-	1566	1176	316
17	Mothbeans	-	1934	1436	203
18	Other Pulses	12057	12787	13044	12661
19	Groundnut	7458	7109	7092	7729
20	Castor	416	487	629	771
21	Sesamum	2596	2228	2166	1952
22	Rape & Mustard	2943	3382	3895	6487
23	Linseed	1753	2026	1325	879
24	Safflower	313	668	907	726
25	Nigerseed	494	601	604	584
26	Sunflower	0	304	870	2038
27	Soybean	0	95	1370	4860
28	Coconut	875	1087	1213	1811
29	Cotton	8054	7266	7288	8678
30	Jute	800	662	927	783
31	Mesta	347	334	303	194
32	Sunnhemp	181	141	100	60
33	Pepper	109	111	122	190
34	Chillies	690	736	845	890
35	Ginger	23	26	53	67
36	Turmeric	65	72	107	140
37	Coriander	-	251	388	417
38	Cardamom	62	95	116	97
39	Garlic	-	35	64	104
40	Banana	206	232	302	421
41	Potato	460	610	841	1162
42	Sweet Potato	180	239	182	136
43	Tapioca	267	389	282	247
44	Onion	-	-	274	395
45	Papaya	7	11	32	20
46	Sugar cane	2580	2841	2960	4061
47	Tobacco	402	394	408	403
48	Arecanut	137	179	189	255
49	Guarseed	1425	2252	2271	767
50	Tea	342	363	404	428
51	Coffee	37	135	213	92
52	Rubber	111	178	224	172
	All Crops	149506	160075	166262	169949

Table 6. All India: Temporal Change in the Sources of Growth of Main Crop Groups

Crops	Periods	Percent Growth Rate in			Output Growth from
		Output	Area	Yield	Area (%)	Yield (%)
Cereals	1766-76	2.43	0.47	1.96	19.28	80.72
	1976-86	2.55	0.14	2.41	5.65	94.35
	1986-97	2.78	-0.25	3.03	-9.14	109.14
Coarse Cereals	1766-76	0.60	1.05	-0.45	175.87	-75.87
	1976-86	0.05	-0.02	0.07	-50.20	150.20
	1986-97	1.14	-4.36	5.51	-381.16	481.16
Pulses	1766-76	0.84	0.43	0.41	51.25	48.75
	1976-86	1.35	0.21	1.15	15.22	84.78
	1986-97	-0.88	0.32	-1.20	36.39	-136.39
Foodgrains	1766-76	2.25	0.46	1.79	20.46	79.54
	1976-86	2.44	0.16	2.29	6.40	93.60
	1986-97	2.53	-0.15	2.67	-5.83	105.83
Nine Oilseeds	1766-76	2.55	0.55	2.01	21.42	78.58
	1976-86	3.02	1.22	1.80	40.31	59.69
	1986-97	6.28	3.05	3.22	48.68	51.32
*R&M+SF+SB	1766-76	4.69	2.29	2.40	48.79	51.21
	1976-86	8.19	4.93	3.27	60.13	39.87
	1986-97	10.92	7.38	3.53	67.62	32.38
Commercial Crops	1766-76	2.95	0.78	2.17	26.49	73.51
	1976-86	1.55	0.37	1.18	23.96	76.04
	1986-97	4.27	2.23	2.04	52.18	47.82
Non-cereals	1766-76	1.87	0.59	1.28	31.59	68.41
	1976-86	2.81	0.57	2.24	20.38	79.62
	1986-97	5.00	1.89	3.12	37.67	62.33
All Crops	1766-76	2.62	0.51	2.11	19.48	80.52
	1976-86	1.94	0.30	1.64	15.63	84.37
	1986-97	3.78	0.60	3.17	15.98	84.02

* R & M = Rapeseed & Mustard; SF = Sunflower; SB = Soybean. (These three oilseeds are taken as a separate group in view of the faster growth of both their area and output in recent years).