The impact of this year's drought is likely to be exacerbated by already low water reserves in dams and reservoirs, following the severe water shortage last year. Moreover, the effects of the drought may be worse than last year, which was already the worst rainfall year in 30 years, as official reports indicate that the amount of rainfall in the seven months to April was some 25 percent down on the same period in 1998/99. The country has been affected by drought in 13 of the last 25 years.

Consequently, latest prospects suggest that wheat production will decline to around 9 million tonnes, slightly above production in 1999. Wheat is normally planted in October/November and harvested in June/July. In addition to wheat, the outlook is also unfavourable for barley, currently being harvested, which is of considerable importance in livestock production on which large segments of the population depend. This, in turn, will have a serious impact on vulnerable groups, particularly in rural areas, who have limited alternative sources of income and incurred heavy losses last year. Already many villagers have begun panic selling of livestock and are reportedly leaving their homes.

In 1999/2000 the country was one of the largest importers of wheat in the world, with imports reaching almost 7 million tonnes, similar to record imports in 1996/97, which was also affected by drought. The absence of significant recovery in wheat production this year means that imports are likely to remain high, though below last year.

The Government has implemented a number of measures to counter the effects of drought, including direct assistance, amounting to US$183 million, to farmers. The country also requires international assistance in various areas, including, the provision of drinking water and in rehabilitation of the livestock and irrigation sectors.