FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.2, August 2000 ETHIOPIA 17

ETHIOPIA

Area:	976 680 sq.km
Climate:	Northern coastal area and lowlands in south and east are semi-arid to arid; rest of country has a highland rainy climate with mild winter.
Population:	61.67 million (1999 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: US$ 100 (1998)
Specific characteristics of the country:	Low-income food-deficit country
Logistics:	Land-locked country, roads inadequate
Major foodcrops:	Maize, teff, barley, sorghum, wheat, pulses, enset (false banana)
Marketing year:	January/December; Lean season: August-November
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:	69 percent

CURRENT SITUATION

The 2000 secondary "Belg" season crop, for harvest from June, has failed reflecting delayed rains and erratic precipitation in some areas. The Belg crop accounts for around 8 to 10 percent of annual grain production, but in some areas it is the main harvest. Rains, which normally start in February, did not establish until late-March. Precipitation was fairly abundant in April and beginning of May in central and northern parts. However, despite heavy rains, which caused localized flooding, the severe drought conditions over southern and south-eastern Ethiopia have yet to improve. The failure of last year's Belg season has severely affected the food supply situation of large numbers of people and were exacerbated by the continued drought through the 1999 main season in these areas.

Planting of the main 2000 main "Meher" season (June-September) crops are well advanced. Early prospects improved with recent good rains that favoured land preparation. However, loss or sale of Oxen over several drought years and shortage of seeds are expected to constrain food production. The 1999/2000 Meher season grain harvest was estimated by an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission in November/December at 10.7 million tonnes, some 6 percent below the previous year's outturn. The most important factors affecting production were the poor Belg rains and the late start of the Meher rains.

Despite some recent beneficial rains that brought some relief to the pastoral areas of eastern and southern Ethiopia, the food supply situation remains precarious. Large numbers of livestock have perished due to drought and a number of starvation-related deaths, particularly among children, are reported. With the failure of the current belg season, the number of people in need of assistance has increased to more than 10 million people, including 400 000 displaced by the border war with Eritrea. Consequently, the overall food aid requirement in 2000 estimated earlier at 836 000 tonnes has been revised upwards to 1.2 million tonnes.

An revised Emergency Operation worth a total of US$261.4 million was jointly approved by FAO and WFP on 21 July 2000 to assist some 5.7 million people until the end of this year. Total pledges by mid-July amounted to 973 000 tonnes of which 490 000 has been delivered.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 2000 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)

	Wheat	Rice	Coarse grains	Total
Previous five years average production	1 119	-	6 975	8 094
Previous five years average imports	464	16	23	503
2000 Domestic Availability	1 212	-	6 558	7 770
1999/2000 Production (rice in paddy terms)	1 212	-	6 528	7 740
1999/2000 Production (rice in milled terms)	1 212	-	6 528	7 740
Possible stock drawdown	-	-	30	30
2000 Utilization	2 023	20	6 678	8 721
Food Use	1 623	20	5 817	7 460
of which: local purchase requirement	-	-	200	200
Non-food use	200	-	811	1 011
Exports or Re-exports	-	-	50	50
Possible stock build up	200	-	-	200
2000 Import Requirement	811	20	120	951
Anticipated commercial imports	45	20	-	65
Food aid needs	766	-	120	886
Current Aid Position
Food aid pledges	921	1	51	973
of which: Delivered	462	1	27	490
Donor-financed purchases	-	-	38	38
of which: for local use	-	-	38	38
for export	-	-	-	-
Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/Year)	26	0	92	118
Indexes
1999/2000 production as % of average:				96
2000 import requirement as % of average:				189