The projections at a glance

Population (millions)

1979-81

1997-99

2015

2030

2050

World

4 430

5 900

7 207

8 270

9 322

Developing countries

3 259

4 595

5 858

6 910

7 987

  Industrial countries

789

892

951

979

986

  Transition countries

382

413

398

381

349

Population growth (% per annum)

1979 to 1999

1989 to 1999

1997-99 to 2015

2015 to 2030

2030 to 2050

World

1.6

1.5

1.2

0.9

0.6

  Developing countries

1.9

1.7

1.4

1.1

0.7

  Industrial countries

0.7

0.7

0.4

0.2

0.0

  Transition countries

0.5

0.1

- 0.2

- 0.3

- 0.4

GDP growth (% per annum)

1997-99 to 2015 total

2015 to 2030 total

1997-99 to 2015 per capital

2015 to 2030 per capita

World

3.5

3.8

2.3

2.9

  Developing countries

5.1

5.5

3.7

4.4

  Industrial countries

3.0

3.0

2.6

2.8

  Transition countries

3.7

4.0

4.0

4.3

Growth in demand for agricultural products (% per annum)

1969 to 1999

1979 to 1999

1989 to 1999

1997-99 to 2015

2015 to 2030

World

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.6

1.4

  Developing countries

3.7

3.7

4.0

2.2

1.7

  Industrial countries

1.1

1.0

1.0

0.7

0.6

  Transition countries

- 0.2

- 1.7

- 4.4

0.5

0.4

Growth in agricultural production (% per annum)

1969 to 1999

1979 to 1999

1989 to 1999

1997-99 to 2015

2015 to 2030

World

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.6

1.3

  Developing countries

3.5

3.7

3.9

2.0

1.7

  Industrial countries

1.3

1.0

1.4

0.8

0.6

  Transition countries

- 0.4

- 1.7

- 4.7

0.6

0.6

Calorie consumption (kcal/capita/day)

1961-63

1979-81

1997-99

2015

2030

World

2 283

2 552

2 803

2 940

3 050

  Developing countries

1 960

2 312

2 681

2 850

2 980

  Industrial countries

2 891

3 135

3 380

3 440

3 500

  Transition countries

3 154

3 389

2 906

3 060

3 180

Undernourishment

Million people

% of population

1990-92

1997-99

2015

2030

1990-92

1997-99

2015

2030

World

815

14

  Developing countries

816

777

610

443

20

17

11

6

  Industrial countries

11

1

  Transition countries

27

6

Cereals

Million tonnes

% per annum

1979-81

1997-99

2015

2030

1979 to 1999

1989 to 1999

1997-99 to 2015

2015 to 2030

World

  Production

1 442

1 889

2 387

2 838

1.4

1.0

1.4

1.2

  Food

706

1 003

1 227

1 406

1.9

1.4

1.2

0.9

  Feed

575

657

911

1 148

0.6

0.6

1.9

1.5

Developing countries

  Production

649

1 026

1 354

1 652

2.5

2.1

1.6

1.3

  Food

524

790

1 007

1 185

2.2

1.7

1.4

1.1

  Feed

113

222

397

573

3.8

4.4

3.5

2.5

  Net trade

- 66

- 103

- 190

- 265