Products with Competitive Potential in African Agriculture

Selection of potentially competitive crops according to production-cum-trade-opportunities criterion

41. The results of this exercise are shown in Table 1. As expected, traditional export crops, such as coffee for East Africa, cocoa for Coastal West Africa and groundnuts for both Central and Sahel West Africa, were found to exhibit high competitive potential. Fruits, vegetables, olives and wheat were found to be potentially competitive crops for North Africa. Millet, vegetables, sorghum, rice and groundnuts have been identified as priority crops for Sahel West Africa. Grapes, maize, sugar cane, vegetables and tobacco hold promise for their expansion in production and trade in Southern Africa.

42. The analysis revealed that the observed crop mix based on natural suitability did not necessarily coincide with the crop structure taking into account the potential for trade. For instance:

Vegetables and fruits have an important economic role and trade potential in all sub-regions (except Sahel West Africa for fruits), despite their relatively small share in cultivated land area. Surprisingly, in North Africa vegetables cover less than five percent of land area, though they represent as much as 44 percent of total sub-region's output trade value.
In addition, rice was identified as a potentially competitive crop for Sahel West Africa, though its production and trade potential is marginal (7 percent of sub-regional output trade value). In Sahel Central Africa (Chad), vegetables and rice outweigh seed cotton (which receives most governmental attention) in terms of the economic importance in the country's production structure expressed in trade unit values.
In Coastal West Africa, vegetables and fruits were added to the list of potentially competitive crops, eliminating maize, millet, rice and sorghum, which are naturally suitable in that part of Africa.
In Central Africa, the crop mix displaying significant production - cum - trade potential differs significantly from the current cropping pattern. Surprisingly, coffee and cocoa's shares in sub-regional production (expressed in world trade values) do not surpass five percent, while in the sub-regional cropping pattern they represent 17.8 percent and 16.9 percent, respectively. Similarly, oil-palm fruit, maize and sorghum contribute minimally to the sub-region's total output trade value, representing less than five percent on average.
In East Africa, crops such as millet, pulses and sorghum contribute little (below 5.0 percent) to the total production (expressed in trade unit values), despite their relative importance in the cropping pattern.

Table 1. Potentially competitive crops by sub-region and the extent of their production and trade potential

Natural suitability criterion		Production - cum - trade-opportunities criterion		Extent of production and trade potential ***
Naturally suitable crop	Crop's share* (%)	Sub-regional priority crop	Crop's share (%)**	Extent of production and trade potential ***
North Africa
Fruits	28.4	Fruits	20.5	Moderate
Olives	49.6	Olives	12.9	Moderate
Wheat	26.9	Wheat	6.0	Marginal
Vegetables	4.6	Vegetables	43.8	High
Sahel Central Africa (Chad)
Fruits	9.3	Fruits	8.7	Marginal
Groundnuts	10.7	Groundnuts	37.8	High
Millet	22.1	Millet	9.8	Marginal
Sorghum	21.2	Sorghum	7.8	Marginal
Rice	2.8	Rice	5.2	Marginal
Vegetables	0.4	Vegetables	8.7	Marginal
Seed Cotton	8.4	Seed Cotton	0.6	Insignificant
Central Africa (excluding Chad)
Fruits	28.5	Fruits	35.1	High
Cassava	11.6	Cassava	24.5	Moderate
Groundnuts	5.9	Groundnuts	6.2	Marginal
Vegetables	2.4	Vegetables	11.0	Moderate
Coffee	17.8	Coffee	4.6	Insignificant
Cocoa	16.9	Cocoa	2.3
Oil-palm fruits	10.5	Oil-palm fruits	3.6
Maize	9.6	Maize	3.5
Sorghum	5.6	Sorghum	0.7
Sahel West Africa
Groundnuts	10.7	Groundnuts	11.4	Moderate
Millet	33.7	Millet	27.0	High
Sorghum	28.1	Sorghum	5.0	Marginal
Rice	3.0	Rice	6.8	Marginal
Vegetables	0.9	Vegetables	26.9	High
Fruits	39.5	Fruits	4.9	Insignificant
Coastal West Africa
Cocoa	52.6	Cocoa	7.3	Marginal
Cassava	10.8	Cassava	10.1	Moderate
Yams	7.9	Yams	50.0	High
Maize	15.9	Maize	0.3	Insignificant
Fruits	22.4	Fruits	9.6	Marginal
Vegetables	4.7	Vegetables	9.3	Marginal
Millet	14.7	Millet	0.7	Insignificant
Rice	9.0	Rice	0.8
Sorghum	17.8	Sorghum	0.3
East Africa
Fruits	26.5	Fruits	46.8	High
Coffee	12.5	Coffee	6.1	Marginal
Maize	12.9	Maize	5.4	Marginal
Vegetables	0.9	Vegetables	13.3	Moderate
Millet	7.3	Millet	1.8	Insignificant
Pulses	7.9	Pulses	4.6
Sorghum	18.9	Sorghum	3.4
Southern Africa
Fruits	29.4	Fruits	22.5	High
Maize	25.5	Maize	13.8	Moderate
Grapes	9.6	Grapes	12.0	Moderate
Sugar cane	2.5	Sugar cane	17.5	Moderate
Tobacco	1.0	Tobacco	6.6	Marginal
Vegetables	1.5	Vegetables	13.7	Moderate
Coffee	12.0	Coffee	0.2	Insignificant

Estimates are based on data extracted from FAOSTAT (2002); Note: '-'stands for figures less than five percent; * percent of the crop's harvested area in sub-regional land area, average 1996-2000; ** percent of the crop's output trade value in the sub-regional total output trade value, average 1996-2000; *** The following scale of the extent of production and trade potential has been considered: <5% insignificant; 5.0% -10% marginal; 10.1% -25% moderate; > 25% high.

43. In addition to potentially competitive sub-regional crops, country-specific crops have also been identified for countries in which they play a significant role in the economy and trade, even though they are not representative at sub-regional level (Box 2). Country-specific crops and potentially competitive sub-regional crops are shown by sub-region in Tables 2-6.

Box 2. Potentially competitive country-specific crops

North Africa	grapes (Algeria and Egypt), potatoes (Algeria), pulses (Mauritania) and rice (Egypt and Mauritania)
East Africa	pulses (Burundi, Tanzania), millet (Eritrea), potatoes (Eritrea), sugar cane (Kenya), sorghum (Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia) and wheat (Eritrea and Ethiopia)
Central Africa	cocoa (Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea and Saõ Tomé and Principé), coffee (Cameroon, Central African Republic and Equatorial Guinea), oil-palm fruit (Equatorial Guinea, Saõ Tomé and Principé and Central African Republic), sugar cane (Republic of Congo and Gabon) and sesame (Central African Republic)
Coastal West Africa	coffee (Côte d'Ivoire, Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone), groundnuts (Guinea and Guinea-Bissau), oil-palm fruits (Guinea, Guinea-Bissau and Liberia) and rice (Guinea, Guinea-Bissau and Liberia)
Sahel West Africa	maize (Burkina Faso, Mali and Cape Verde), seed cotton (Burkina Faso and Mali), cassava (Gambia, Senegal, Cape Verde and Niger) and fruits (Senegal and Cape Verde)
Southern Africa	sunflower (Botswana), potatoes (Lesotho and Malawi), rice (Madagascar), millet (Namibia) and wheat (Lesotho)

Table 2. North Africa: Selection of potentially competitive crops based on crop's percentage share in the sub-regional and national output (expressed in world trade unit value)

Crops	Algeria	Egypt	Libya	Mauritania	Morocco	Tunisia	Sub-region
Fruits	20.9	21.0	16.9	25.2	24.3	12.8	20.5
*Grapes*	*5.1*	*5.6*	3.1	-	4.4	2.9	4.9
Maize	-	4.7	-	2.5	0.5	0.0	2.6
Olives	13.1	2.4	27.0	-	18.2	46.0	12.9
*Potatoes*	*6.5*	2.5	3.7	0.4	4.1	1.6	3.2
*Pulses*	0.4	1.0	0.6	*22.4*	1.3	0.7	1.0
*Rice*	-	*7.3*	-	*32.4*	0.1	-	4.0
Vegetables	46.9	48.1	46.0	14.3	37.9	30.9	43.8
Wheat	7.1	5.5	1.7	0.1	8.4	5.0	6.0

Estimates are based on production and trade data (average 1996-2000) extracted from FAOSTAT (2002). Note: shading stands for 'potentially competitive sub-regional crops', whereas bold and italic cells stand for 'potentially competitive country-specific crops'. Groundnuts, seed cotton, sesame seed, soybean and sunflower are not shown in the table, representing under 1 percent of sub-region's total production value.

Table 3. East Africa: Selection of potentially competitive crops based on percentage share in sub-regional and national output (expressed in world trade unit value)

Crops	Burundi	Djibouti	Eritrea	Ethiopia	Kenya	Rwanda	Seychelles	Somalia	Sudan	Tanzania	Uganda	Sub-region
Coffee	3.9	-	-	20.6	6.4	2.0	-	-	-	3.3	6.6	6.1
Fruits	70.5	10.6	3.2	5.3	21.4	79.7	43.3	49.3	16.3	36.9	76.0	46.8
*Groundnuts*	0.6	-	1.8	0.3	0.6	0.4	-	0.9	*21.3*	1.8	1.4	4.1
Maize	1.4	0.0	2.4	16.2	11.4	0.5	-	8.8	0.2	10.5	1.7	5.4
*Millet*	0.2	-	*5.6*	2.7	0.3	0.0	-	-	3.8	1.9	1.7	1.8
*Potatoes*	0.6	-	*11.2*	3.3	3.2	4.3	-	-	0.1	1.8	1.2	1.8
*Pulses*	8.3	-	*23.7*	*13.6*	3.3	3.7	-	2.2	2.2	*5.1*	2.3	4.6
*Sesame*	-	-	4.0	0.5	0.3	0.0	-	*7.6*	*7.7*	1.0	0.9	1.8
*Sorghum*	0.6	-	*19.4*	*7.6*	0.6	0.8	-	*5.5*	*11.9*	2.6	0.6	3.4
*Sugar cane*	1.0	0.0	-	*5.0*	*11.9*	0.1	-	*5.6*	*10.9*	2.9	1.4	4.6
Tobacco	0.1	-	-	0.4	2.0	0.7	-	0.1	-	3.7	0.6	1.1
Vegetables	11.6	89.3	24.1	15.8	16.2	5.9	39.3	19.5	21.9	24.7	4.5	13.3
*Wheat*	0.1	-	4.5	8.0	1.3	0.1	-	0.1	0.7	0.5	0.0	1.5

Estimates are based on production and trade data extracted from FAOSTAT (2002). Note: shading stands for 'potentially competitive sub-regional crops', whereas bold and italic cells stand for 'potentially competitive country-specific crops'. Seed cotton, soybean and sunflower are not shown in the table, representing under 1 percent of sub-region's total production value.

Table 4. Central Africa (excluding Chad): Selection of potentially competitive crops based on percentage share in sub-regional and national output (expressed in world trade unit value)

Crops	Cameroon	Central African Republic	Democratic Republic of Congo	Republic of Congo	Equatorial Guinea	Gabon	Saõ Tomé and Principé	Sub-region
Cassava	6.1	12.8	40.5	27.4	8.9	9.1	1.9	24.5
*Cocoa beans*	*5.4*	0.0	0.2	0.8	*13.0*	0.4	*19.7*	2.3
*Coffee, green*	*6.7*	*7.0*	3.2	1.1	*15.4*	0.1	0.4	4.6
Fruits	43.6	31.8	26.6	39.4	53.7	66.9	45.9	35.1
Groundnuts	3.2	17.6	7.3	5.8	-	5.5	-	6.2
Maize	3.6	2.7	3.9	0.4	-	1.4	1.1	3.5
*Oil-palm fruit*	4.5	1.7	3.0	4.1	*9.1*	1.8	*14.1*	3.6
Pulses	1.9	2.4	1.7	1.0	-	0.0	-	1.7
Rice	0.4	1.0	2.0	0.1	-	0.1	-	1.2
*Sesame*	0.4	*6.2*	0.1	0.1				0.7
*Sugar cane*	3.0	1.3	2.8	*10.2*	-	*5.2*	-	3.1
Vegetables	16.4	11.4	7.3	9.4	-	9.2	16.9	11.0

Estimates are based on production and trade data extracted from FAOSTAT (2002). Note: shading stands for 'potentially competitive sub-regional crops', whereas bold and italic cells stand for 'potentially competitive country-specific crops'. Millet, potatoes, seed cotton, sesame seed, sorghum, soybean, tea and tobacco leaves and sunflower are not shown in the table, representing under one percent of sub-region's total production value.

Table 5. Southern Africa: Selection of potentially competitive crops based on percentage share in sub-regional and national output (expressed in world trade unit value)

Crops	Angola	Botswana	Comoros	Lesotho	Madagascar	Malawi	Mauritius	Mozambique	Namibia	South Africa	Swaziland	Zambia	Zimbabwe	Sub-region
*Cassava*	*83.2*	-	*52.1*	-	*58.5*	*30.5*	0.0	*87.6*	-	-	-	*59.8*	*8.7*	0.8
Coffee	0.2	-	0.2	-	3.3	0.3	-	0.1	-	-	-	0.4	1.1	0.2
Fruits	6.9	16.2	34.4	10.5	11.3	10.8	1.6	3.1	18.8	27.0	14.1	3.9	5.5	22.5
Grape	0.4	-	-	-	0.3	-	-	0.0	9.7	15.6	-	-	0.1	12.0
Groundnuts	0.3	1.7	0.6	-	0.6	2.7	0.1	1.6	0.4	1.3	1.6	2.6	4.6	2.1
Maize	1.6	4.9	0.5	31.2	0.5	10.0	0.0	2.3	9.5	13.6	4.5	9.1	13.6	13.8
*Millet*	0.6	2.2	-	-	-	0.2	-	0.2	*34.7*	0.0	-	0.9	0.9	0.4
*Potatoes*	0.1	-	0.2	*22.7*	1.4	*11.1*	0.8	0.2	-	3.7	0.4	0.1	0.3	2.9
*Pulses*	0.7	*20.1*	4.0	*6.5*	0.8	3.3	0.0	0.9	*6.9*	0.4	0.6	0.4	0.9	0.5
*Sorghum*	-	*10.8*	-	*5.3*	-	-	-	0.5	1.9	0.5	0.0	0.3	0.6	0.5
Sugar cane	0.6	-	-	-	3.4	4.6	82.9	0.4	-	15.8	75.1	7.3	14.4	17.5
*Sunflower*	0.1	*5.4*	-	-	-	0.1	-	0.1	0.1	2.2	-	0.2	0.4	1.8
Tobacco	0.3	-	-	-	0.3	14.2	0.6	0.2	-	1.0	0.0	0.7	36.2	6.6
Vegetables	4.6	36.4	4.0	17.2	5.4	6.2	13.1	1.7	14.6	14.9	2.1	12.1	4.8	13.7
*Wheat*	0.0	0.4	-	*6.5*	0.0	0.0	-	-	1.6	3.6	0.0	0.8	2.3	3.2

Estimates are based on production and trade data extracted from FAOSTAT (2002). Note: shading stands for 'potentially competitive sub-regional crops', whereas bold and italic cells stand for 'potentially competitive country-specific crops'. Coffee, paddy rice, seed cotton, sesame and tea are not shown in the table, representing under 1 percent of sub-region's total production value.

Table 6. Coastal West Africa: Selection of potentially competitive crops based on percentage share in sub-regional and national output (expressed in world trade unit value)

Crops	Benin	Côte d'Ivoire	Ghana	Guinea	Guinea-Bissau	Liberia	Nigeria	Sierra Leone	Togo	Sub-region
Cassava	12.8	2.5	16.2	8.3	5.0	19.1	10.9	8.1	8.3	10.0
Cocoa beans	0.0	32.0	14.4	1.0	-	1.7	1.8	5.8	2.0	7.3
*Coffee, green*	0.1	*15.0*	0.5	*10.0*	-	*8.5*	0.1	*31.4*	*10.6*	2.9
Fruits	4.1	9.2	15.3	30.4	37.1	26.7	8.8	14.6	2.0	9.6
*Groundnuts*	3.2	1.2	2.2	*9.7*	*16.7*	1.4	4.8	*5.0*	2.6	3.9
*Oil-palm fruit*	0.9	1.6	1.6	*6.0*	*9.4*	*7.4*	1.9	4.4	1.1	1.9
*Rice*	0.1	1.2	0.3	*5.1*	*11.0*	*6.7*	0.7	-	0.7	0.8
*Seed Cotton*	1.3	0.3	0.1	0.2	0.3	-	0.1	*5.2*	1.1	0.2
Sesame Seed	0.4	0.0	-	0.0	0.0	-	0.1	0.4	0.1	2.2
Vegetables	7.7	3.6	6.3	20.9	18.0	19.6	10.8	24.1	7.8	9.3
Yams	68.2	31.3	42.1	6.3	-	8.3	58.0	-	59.4	50.0

Estimates are based on production and trade data extracted from FAOSTAT (2002). Note: shading stands for 'potentially competitive sub-regional crops', whereas bold and italic cells stand for 'potentially competitive country-specific crops'. Maize, millet, sorghum, soybean, sugar cane and tobacco leaves are not shown in the table, representing under 1 percent of sub-region's total production value.

Table 7. Sahel West Africa: Selection of potentially competitive crops based on percentage share in sub-regional and national output (expressed in world trade unit value)

Crops	Burkina Faso	Cape Verde	Gambia	Mali	Niger	Senegal	Sub-region
*Cassava*	0.2	*12.6*	*6.0*	1.0	*11.9*	*6.5*	1.0
*Fruits*	4.2	*33.2*	2.2	2.5	2.4	*6.1*	4.9
Groundnuts	21.5	-	62.9	12.7	8.1	46.9	11.4
*Maize*	*6.5*	*8.2*	1.8	5.2	0.1	0.7	3.6
Millet	21.9	-	15.3	17.9	38.2	10.1	27.0
Rice	2.3	-	5.0	16.5	1.2	3.4	6.8
*Seed Cotton*	*6.3*	-	0.2	*11.0*	0.2	0.5	4.9
Sorghum	14.5	-	1.8	7.4	4.4	1.3	5.0
Sugar cane	2.7	3.4	-	2.1	0.9	4.8	3.3
Vegetables	15.1	41.3	4.9	21.5	31.1	19.3	26.9
Yams	3.7	-	-	1.9	-	-	1.5

Estimates based on production and trade data extracted from FAOSTAT (2002). Note: shading stands for potentially competitive sub-regional crops, whereas bold and italic cells stand for 'potentially competitive country-specific crops'. Potatoes, sesame seed, soybean and tobacco leaves are not shown in the table, representing under 1 percent of sub-region's total production value.

Table 8. Sub-regional vis-à-vis global and world leaders' annual yields (metric tonnes per ha) and gross income per ha (expressed in world trade unit value, average 1996-2000)

Priority Crop	Sub-region	MT/ha	US$/ha
Cassava	Central* Africa	7.8	744
	Coastal West Africa	10.3	978
	Brazil	12.8	1 212
	Indonesia	12.2	1 161
	Thailand	15.2	1 447
	World	10.1	959
Cocoa	Coastal West Africa	0.5	583
	Indonesia	1.1	1 346
	Malaysia	0.8	1 010
	World	0.5	587
Coffee	East Africa	0.7	1 472
	Colombia	0.7	1 532
	Brazil	0.7	1 570
	World	0.7	1 335
Fruits	Central* Africa	6.4	3 459
	Coastal West Africa	5.3	2 849
	East Africa	5.7	3 040
	North Africa	9.5	5 128
	Chad	4.0	2 163
	Southern Africa	10.6	5 696
	EU (15)	10.3	5 544
	USA	23.6	12 686
Grapes	World	9.4	5 039
	Southern Africa	9.7	9 349
	Chile	12.6	12 182
	EU (15)	7.5	7 254
	USA	16.8	16 234
Groundnuts	World	8.1	7 840
	Central* Africa	0.7	491
	Chad	1.0	706
	Sahel West Africa	0.8	720
	India	1.0	734
	USA	2.9	2 093
Maize	World	1.4	1 002
	East Africa	1.5	188
	Southern	1.8	230
	Africa
	USA	8.3	1 075
	World	4.3	557
Millet	Chad	0.4	90
	Sahel West Africa	0.5	219
	India	0.8	176
	World	0.8	169
Olives	North Africa	1.1	10 239
	EU (15)	2.3	6 263
	Greece	2.9	3 826
	Italy	2.7	2 035
	World	1.9	4 904
Rice	Chad	1.4	318
	Sahel West Africa	2.1	227
	Italy	6.0	1 367
	Thailand	2.5	556
	USA	6.7	1 518
	Vietnam	4.0	906
	World	3.9	873
Seed Cotton	Chad	0.7	150
	China	3.0	696
	India	0.7	164
	USA	1.9	431
	World	1.6	373
Yams	Coastal West Africa	10.1	8 217
	Brazil	9.2	5 716
	World	9.7	6 031
Sorghum	Chad	0.6	74
	Sahel West Africa	0.5	116
	India	0.9	98
	World	1.4	166
Sugar cane	Southern Africa	69.0	4 414
	Cuba	33.0	2 109
	World	64.6	4 135
Tobacco	Southern Africa	2.2	6 686
	USA	2.4	7 255
	World	1.6	4 942
Vegetables	Central* Africa	7.0	4 347
	Coastal West Africa	5.5	3 402
	East Africa	6.5	4 057
	North Africa	19.2	12 000
	Chad	10.4	6 469
	Sahel West Africa	10.5	622
	Southern Africa	10.4	6 465
	USA	26.8	16 647
	World	16.1	10 005
Wheat	North Africa	1.9	279
	Australia	2.0	294
	Canada	2.4	353
	EU (15)	5.8	862
	USA	2.7	408
	World	2.7	402

Estimates are based on yields per ha and trade unit values extracted form FAOSTAT (2002). Note: * Central Africa (excluding Chad)