Flooding in the Sahel countries: what impact on agriculture and food security?

West Africa - In April 2024, the Seasonal Forecasts for West Africa and the Sahel (PRESASS, the French acronym) predicted "a generally wet 2024 rainy season over the Sahelian strip and river flows generally above average in the Sahel’s main river basins".

The current situation in most of the countries in the sub-region (Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Chad), marked by heavy rainfall and overflowing rivers, confirms the forecasts that had been made. Over the past 30 days, the amount of rainfall recorded in the Sahelian strip (Chad, Niger, Mali, Mauritania, and Northern Burkina Faso) was 120% to 600% above the average for the 1991-2020 reference period.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), through its Data in Emergency (DIEM) team, uses satellite images to regularly monitor the flood extent in the Sahel and Central Africa. This monitoring is particularly important as it provides the surface area of flooded cropland area, in addition to the flooded areas or areas at risk, with a comparison to the previous year (2023).

As of 14 August 2024, the extent of flooded areas and flooded cropland areas had increased compared to the first week of August, coinciding with the period of heavy rains in Sahelian and West African countries. It doubled in Cameroon, Mali, and Nigeria.

In addition to the considerable loss of human life and material damage (more than 700,000 people affected in 9 countries in West and Central Africa, according to the bulletin published by OCHA), food and nutritional security are under serious threat. Although attention is often focused on the major cities, rural areas, which are already less well off in terms of infrastructure and basic social services, are the worst affected. The analysis of site monitoring and cultivated areas over two assessment periods (the first and second weeks of August 2024) compared to 2023 also shows a dangerous and vulnerable situation due to the massive loss of cropland, particularly in Mali (113,619 hectares of flooded cropland, i.e. at least 35% of all flooded areas) and Nigeria (204,803 ha, i.e. more than 33% of all flooded areas), in a sub-region where at least 52 million people are at risk of food and nutritional insecurity.

The next analysis of the harmonised framework in October-November 2024 deserves particular attention, as it will quantify the impact of these floods on food and nutritional security in the sub-region.

The trends identified by the seasonal forecasts proved to be accurate. This demonstrates the need to invest more in solid early warning systems that are accessible at all levels, especially to local populations. Furthermore, anticipation through preparation and the implementation of localised actions could better mitigate the impacts by limiting the damage caused, saving lives and protecting the livelihoods of vulnerable populations.