West Africa and the Sahel: Nearly 52.8 Million People Could Face Acute Food Insecurity During the 2026 Lean Season (June-August)

Dakar, Senegal - January 26, 2026 – The food and nutrition crisis in West Africa and the Sahel continues to deteriorate, affecting millions of households. According to the latest Cadre Harmonisé (2025) analysis, 41.8 million people are currently facing acute food insecurity. Without urgent action, this number could rise to 52.8 million during the lean season from June to August 2026.

The analysis, conducted across 15 countries in the region and including Cameroon, shows that conflict, climate shocks, rising food prices, and reductions in humanitarian funding are severely undermining the livelihoods of the most vulnerable people.

“This food crisis is driven by a combination of interlinked factors. Persistent insecurity, especially in the Lake Chad Basin, Liptako-Gourma, the Anglophone regions of Cameroon, and parts of northwest and central Nigeria, restricts access to farmland and markets. On top of this, climate shocks reduce crop yields, inflation and input cost increases add economic pressure, and reduced funding weakens our ability to meet priority needs and invest in prevention,” said Koffy Dominique Kouacou, Head of FAO’s Sub-regional Resilience Team for West Africa (REOWA).

A Situation Already in Crisis

Between October and December 2025, nearly 41.8 million people were classified in Crisis or worse (phases 3–5) on the Cadre Harmonisé scale. Of these, more than 1.4 million people were in Emergency (phase 4) in countries including Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, Ghana, Guinea, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and others.

No areas are currently classified in Catastrophe (phase 5), but the projections for 2026 are deeply concerning.

Alarming Outlook for 2026

If additional action is not taken, up to 52.8 million people could face acute food insecurity during the upcoming lean season (June–August 2026). Countries most at risk include Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon, Niger, Guinea, Mali, Ghana, and Sierra Leone.

In certain highly localized areas, particularly in Borno State in Nigeria (Dikwa, Kaga, and Kalabalge), more than 15,000 people are at risk of slipping into Catastrophe (phase 5).

Urgent Call for Action

FAO is urging governments and partners to immediately scale up response efforts to support food production, protect livelihoods, and increase investments in community resilience.

“These figures are alarming and underline a grave situation. They remind us of the urgent need for collective action to prevent a major deterioration in 2026. FAO, together with governments and partners, remains committed to strengthening community resilience and safeguarding livelihoods,” said Bintia Stephen-Tchicaya, FAO Sub-regional Coordinator for West Africa.

FAO also calls for updating response plans, targeting the most vulnerable areas, supporting food production, strengthening community resilience, ensuring humanitarian access, and improving regional coordination.

About the Cadre Harmonisé Analysis

The current cycle covers 1,142 areas for both the ongoing period (October - December 2025) and the projected period (June - August 2026). Three countries, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, and Burkina Faso, did not conduct analysis for this cycle. National sessions took place between October 13 and November 22, 2025, except in Niger (December 10-16). The regional quality review and consolidation by the Cadre Harmonisé Technical Committee were held from November 22 to 28 in Saly Portudal, Senegal, followed by a country-specific review in Niger on December 18 and 19.

“The Cadre Harmonisé is a compass, a robust tool validated by all West African countries that provides reliable food and nutrition security analysis and informs government and partner decision-making. It helps identify the most vulnerable areas and prioritize interventions. We therefore make an urgent appeal to governments and partners to continue supporting this initiative to achieve food security in West Africa,” said Koffy Dominique Kouacou.

About the Cadre Harmonisé

The Cadre Harmonisé (CH) is a regional, consensus-based tool for integrated food security analysis in West Africa and the Sahel. It classifies areas into five severity phases, from Phase 1 (Minimal) to Phase 5 (Catastrophe/Famine), and serves as a reference for planning responses and advocating for vulnerable populations.

Since 1999, the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS), ECOWAS, UEMOA, UN agencies (FAO, WFP, UNICEF), NGOs (e.g., ACF, Oxfam, Save the Children), and international partners (e.g., FEWS NET, JRC) have worked together to develop and apply the Cadre Harmonisé.