FAO DESERT LOCUST BULLETIN NO. 246 (issued 30 March 1999)
GENERAL SITUATION DURING MARCH 1999
FORECAST UNTIL MID-MAY 1999
1. SUMMARY
The Desert Locust situation remained calm in all areas during March. No significant infestations were reported and no control operations were undertaken. Small scale breeding may occur during the forecast period near the Iran/Pakistan border and perhaps in northern Somalia. No significant developments are expected.
Central Region. As a result of unusually poor rainfall this winter along the Red Sea coast, breeding has not occurred and locust numbers did not increase. Unless further rains fall, population levels will continue to decline. Breeding conditions are improving in the interior of Saudi Arabia and Yemen, in northern Somalia, and in northern Oman but there may be very few locusts that can take advantage of this. Consequently, the number of locusts that will eventually move to summer breeding areas will be very low.
Eastern Region. Conditions are improving in the spring breeding areas of western Pakistan and eastern Iran as a result of rainfall during March. So far, only low numbers of locusts have been reported which suggests that breeding during the forecast period will be on a small scale.
Western Region. With the exception of a few isolated areas such as eastern Algeria and parts of Morocco south of the Atlas Mountains, very little rain fell and dry conditions prevailed throughout the Region.
2. WEATHER & ECOLOGICAL CONDITIONS IN MARCH 1999
Good rains fell over northern Oman, northern Somalia, and in the interior of Yemen. A few showers were reported in parts of North-West Africa and in western Pakistan. Breeding conditions may be improving in all of these places. Unusually dry conditions persisted along both sides of the Red Sea.
In the Near East, conditions continued to be unfavourable for breeding along the Red Sea coastal plains. Only a few showers fell near Jeddah, Saudi Arabia and on the coast of Yemen between Hodeidah and the Saudi Arabian border in early March. Green vegetation was reported near Jizan. Consequently, any breeding that occurred is likely to have been restricted to these areas as vegetation elsewhere was dry or becoming dry. Moderate rains fell in the Saudi Arabian interior near Hail and Najran, and in the interior of Yemen in the Shabwah region. Temperatures have been unusually warm in these areas and vegetation was reported to be green. During the first week of March, moderate rains also fell along the Batinah coast of northern Oman where breeding conditions should be improving.
In Eastern Africa, clouds were present at times over the Red Sea coast between Tokar, Sudan and Massawa, Eritrea but no rains were reported and unusually dry conditions prevailed along the entire length of the coastal plains. Conditions are unfavourable for breeding. By mid March, seasonal rains had started in north-western Somalia (west of 45E), Djibouti and the adjacent railway area of eastern Ethiopia. Vegetation in these areas was becoming green. Light rains also fell in the foothills of the escarpment in northern Somalia and small patches of green vegetation were present in some of the wadis.
In South-West Asia, sporadic rains fell in western Pakistan, mainly along the coast from Karachi to Pasni and Gwadar. Rains were heavier in subcoastal areas near Turbat. Some showers extended further west along the coast to Chabahar, Iran and perhaps in the interior of Baluchistan. The northern interior of Baluchistan, Pakistan remained dry except for some light rainfall in the Kharan Valley. Consequently, breeding conditions are favourable or will become favourable primarily in coastal areas and in a few places of the interior. Dry conditions prevailed along the Indo-Pakistan border.
In North-West Africa, moderate rainfall in early March caused flooding in eastern Algeria near Illizi and In Amenas. Rains fell again at mid month and extended into southern Tunisia and western Libya. Consequently, breeding conditions will improve in eastern Algeria. Light rain fell at times in Morocco along the southern side of the Atlas Mountains and on the western coast. Heavy rainfall was reported near Agadir.
In West Africa, no significant rainfall was reported and dry conditions prevailed in Desert Locust areas.
3. AREA TREATED
No control operations were reported during March.
4. DESERT LOCUST SITUATION & FORECAST
( see also the summary on the first page )
WEST AFRICA
Mauritania
• Situation
No surveys were conducted and no locusts were reported during the first half of March.
• Forecast
Scattered adults may be present and could breed in a few limited areas of the north between Akjoujt and Zouerate. No significant developments are likely.
Mali
• Situation
No reports received.
• Forecast
Isolated locusts may be present in a few areas in the Adrar des Iforas.
Niger
• Situation
No reports received.
• Forecast
Isolated adults may be present in a few areas of Tamesna.
Chad
• Situation
No reports received.
• Forecast
No significant developments are likely.
Senegal
• Situation
No reports received.
• Forecast
No significant developments are likely.
Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Gambia, Guinea Bissau, and Guinea Conakry
• Forecast
No significant developments are likely.
NORTH-WEST AFRICA
Algeria
• Situation
No locusts were reported during March.
• Forecast
Isolated adults may be present in a few places in the central and southern Sahara and perhaps south of the Atlas Mountains near Bechar. Adults may appear near Illizi and breed on a small scale in areas of recent rainfall. No significant developments are likely.
Morocco
• Situation
No locusts were reported during March.
• Forecast
Isolated adults may be present or could appear in a few places south-east of the Atlas Mountains and in the Adrar Souttouf region of the extreme south-west.
Tunisia
• Situation
No locusts were reported during February.
• Forecast
No significant developments are likely.
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya
• Situation
No locusts were reported during March which suggests that the earlier outbreak in the south-east may have come to an end.
• Forecast
There is a slight possibility that a few small patches of hoppers and adults may be present near Jebel Uweinat. Otherwise, no significant developments are expected.
EASTERN AFRICA
Sudan
• Situation
No locusts were seen during surveys on the Red Sea coastal plains from Tokar Delta to the Egyptian border and in northern subcoastal areas of Wadi Diib on 8-12 March. No further survey or control operations were undertaken in areas of previous infestations near Atbara.
• Forecast
No significant developments are expected on the Red Sea coastal plains as a result of unusually dry conditions and a lack of rainfall. Any adults that may have escaped survey and control operations previously undertaken near Atbara will probably persist in the few areas that remain green. They may eventually move southwards into the Northern Kordofan and White Nile provinces and breed when the summer rains commence.
Eritrea
• Situation
No reports received.
• Forecast
Isolated solitarious adults may be present in a few places along the Red Sea coastal plains.
Somalia
• Situation
During surveys undertaken from 1-20 March, isolated immature adults were seen on the escarpment west of Hargeisa and on the coastal plains between Berbera (1028N/4502E) and Las Khoreh (1109N/4812E). No locusts were seen near Erigavo, Burco or along the Ethiopian border.
• Forecast
Solitarious adults are expected to increase gradually in the interior and on the coast of the north-west as a result of small scale breeding in areas of recent rainfall. Additional locusts may appear along the central coast east of Berbera and in adjacent interior areas.
Ethiopia
• Situation
No locusts were reported from 1-23 March.
• Forecast
A few adults may appear in the Railway area where rains have fallen recently.
Djibouti
• Situation
No reports received.
• Forecast
No significant developments are likely.
Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda
• Forecast
No significant developments are likely.
NEAR EAST
Saudi Arabia
• Situation
No locusts were reported during March on the Red Sea coastal plains.
• Forecast
Only isolated adults are likely to be present in a few places along the Red Sea coastal plains. Unless additional rains fall, numbers will continue to decline.
Yemen
• Situation
No locusts were seen during surveys on the Red Sea coast from the Saudi Arabian border to south of Hodeidah on 19-21 March.
• Forecast
Isolated adults may be present in few areas along the northern coastal plains of the Red Sea but these will decrease unless additional rainfall occurs. A few adults may appear in areas of recent rainfall in the Shabwah interior.
Egypt
• Situation
During March, no locusts were seen during surveys near Lake Nasser, nor in the oases of the western desert and in areas where control was carried out last month. Except for unconfirmed reports of a few isolated locusts in Wadi Diib (2205N/3555E) and W. Shallal (2210N/3635E), no locusts were seen along the Red Sea coast from the Sudanese border to Hurghada.
• Forecast
As a result of the unusually dry conditions, only isolated adults are likely to be present in a few places in the south-east. No significant developments are expected.
Kuwait
• Situation
No locusts were reported during February.
• Forecast
No significant developments are likely.
Oman
• Situation
No reports received.
• Forecast
Scattered adults may be present on the northern Batinah and could breed in areas of earlier rainfall.
UAE
• Situation
No reports received.
• Forecast
Scattered adults may be present near Fujayrah and Ras Al Khaimah and could breed in areas of earlier rainfall.
Bahrain, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Qatar, Syria Arab Republic and Turkey
• Forecast
No significant developments are likely.
SOUTH-WEST ASIA
Iran
• Situation
Isolated immature adults were present at three locations on the coastal plains near Chabahar (2518N/6038E) on 12 March.
• Forecast
Low numbers of adults will persist on the coastal plains and could appear in a few places in the interior of Baluchistan. Small scale breeding will occur in areas of recent rainfall.
Pakistan
• Situation
Locust numbers increased from mid February onwards in the spring breeding areas in Baluchistan. Isolated adults were reported from ten places near the coast in Turbat, Pasni and Gwadar districts during the second half of February and at 22 places during the first half of March. Densities remained low with a maximum of 12 adults seen at a single location. No locusts have been reported further north in the interior.
• Forecast
Locust numbers will gradually increase as a result of small scale breeding which is expected to occur primarily in coastal areas near Turbat and Shooli, and to a lesser extent between Gwadar and Pasni. Some adults are likely to appear in interior areas of Baluchistan and lay if additional rains fall.
India
• Situation
A late report indicated that isolated adults were present at two locations in Barmer district of Rajasthan on 14 February. A locust was seen at Nagaur (2712N/7345E) on the 19th.
No locusts were reported during the first fortnight of March.
• Forecast
Isolated adults will persist in a few places in Rajasthan. No significant developments are likely.
Afghanistan
• Situation
No reports received.
• Forecast
No significant developments are likely.