Strategic foresight event at the CFS 52 paved the way for smarter, long-term decision-making to transform agrifood systems
On 25 October 2024 in Rome, during the 52nd Plenary Session of the Committee on World Food Security (CFS 52), the side event “Triggering the transformation of agrifood systems through strategic foresight: concepts and experiences” brought together several stakeholders. These included the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), the Foresight4Food Network, the Food Security Information Network (FSIN), the Alliance of Bioversity International and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), and government representatives from Nepal and Vietnam. The hybrid event attracted approximately 100 participants.
The event's main goal was to foster holistic, long-term strategic thinking to transform agrifood systems and address challenges in achieving the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Other objectives included sharing key findings from global, regional, and country level as well as thematic foresight exercises, highlighting diverse stakeholder perspectives on strategic foresight approaches.
Additionally, an important part of the discussions focused on identifying crucial areas requiring further conceptual, analytical, and policy work to strengthen decision-making processes.
Moderated and facilitated by Lan Huong Nguyen, Economist at FAO's Agrifood Economics and Policy Division (ESA), the session began with opening remarks from David Laborde, Director of ESA, who highlighted the urgent need to transform agrifood systems and emphasized the role of strategic foresight in tackling recent global crises.
Laborde noted that the COVID-19 pandemic, war in Ukraine and other geopolitical conflicts, forced migration and climate-related events stem from unsustainable development and weak governance. As a result, negative impacts on agrifood systems have been severe: 733 million people faced hunger in 2023 while about 3 billion could not afford a healthy diet.
Moreover, resource-intensive conventional agriculture and fossil fuel-based industrial development have pushed humanity beyond planetary boundaries, causing noticeable and ongoing ecosystem degradation.
To address these challenges, Laborde stressed that, “Strategic foresight is essential for mapping out paths to sustainable futures. It’s not just about predicting a future but preparing our future, collectively, with data-driven insights and proactive planning.” He added, “This approach allows us to navigate complex trade-offs and make informed decisions that can steer us toward a more resilient and equitable agrifood system.”
During the event, contributors presented diverse insights into how strategic foresight can guide effective policy and action. FAO Senior Economist and Coordinator of Strategic Foresight, Lorenzo Giovanni Bellù, introduced a strategic foresight framework designed to identify cause-effect relationships in complex development patterns, emphasizing the influential roles of political economy dynamics and power relationships.
Bellù emphasized the importance of linking past experiences to future planning to identify and act on cause-effect relationships in complex agrifood systems, stating, “We look into the future with our own mindset, which is anchored to the past. From the past, we get signals of possible futures.”
He continued by noting, “A necessary condition for people to afford healthy diets is that they have enough income. We already know there are causal linkages between different complex elements in agrifood systems. Let’s exploit them to build a better future.”
Nepal’s Senior Agriculture Economist at the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock, Dal Prasad Pudasainy, and Vietnam’s Deputy General Director at the Institute for Policy and Strategy for Agriculture and Rural Development, Dr. Truong Trang, shared lessons from pilot country foresight exercises.
To illustrate how strategic foresight can shape national policies and guide countries like Nepal toward sustainable outcomes, Mr. Pudasainy stated, “The foresight exercise helped us to think and see policy and strategy options from a much broader perspective. It allowed us to explore various scenarios at the national, regional, and local levels, considering both potential outcomes and worst-case scenarios.”
He went on to say, “This approach has strengthened our capacity for strategic planning and highlighted the importance of sustainability for agrifood system transformation in Nepal.”
The discussions covered several interconnected points across the presentations, shedding light on the reasons, pervasive incentives, and barriers that are blocking countries from driving the transformations needed for the 2030 Agenda. Short-termism, geopolitical dynamics and geoeconomic tensions supported by the agenda of the wealthiest nations have undermined correct diagnoses and game-changing strategies for decades.
The event stressed how strategic foresight must be practical for decision-making and grounded in historical patterns to provide insights into future possibilities. FAO’s approach in The future of food and agriculture – Drivers and triggers for transformation (FOFA-DTT) report identifies key drivers, weak signals, scenarios, challenges, triggers, and strategic options for transformation.
Similarly, tools like FAO’s Country Policy Profiles (CPPs), thematic foresight reports on innovation, food safety and the Food for Future (F4F) network are available assets to support strategic foresight work at all levels. Datasets and information systems such as the Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC) and the FOFA Data Dashboard, also play a crucial role in documenting historical trends and projections of key variables to inform critical and strategic thinking for the transformation of agrifood systems.
Overall, the session reaffirmed the role of strategic foresight as a powerful domain of work in navigating complex global challenges and shaping the future of agrifood systems.